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When I heard Fred Thompson had been endorsed by right-to-life groups in Wisconsin and South Carolina, it was like hearing about an old high-school classmate. Oh yeah, Fred—how the hell is that guy?
Not so good, apparently. When he has appeared in headlines over the past week or two, it’s mostly been to attack Mike Huckabee. He issued a sourpuss statement dinging Huckabee for making jokes, calling him a “court jester.” (Something of which Thompson is far from innocent.) He slammed Huck for not knowing about the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. But Thompson’s fusillade hasn’t slowed the Arkansas governor’s ascent. If anything, Thompson has been a victim of the Huckabee surge. Fred has slipped to fourth place in national polls; in his best state, South Carolina, he's tied for second.
Meanwhile, his campaign schedule remains a few lunges short of a workout. (As his spokeswoman Karen Hanretty brilliantly put it last month, “Fred will never rush to war because Fred doesn’t rush to anything.”)
But the main problem seems to be that Thompson isn't a high-concept candidate. In other words, you can’t sum up in a few words what he represents. Or you can, but it’s not as catchy a sell as the other candidates. Just look:
Mitt Romney: Mormonism; morals; business acumen
Rudy Giuliani: Fixed New York; tough on terror
Mike Huckabee: Baptist minister; funny; social conservative
John McCain: Former POW; straight talk; Iraq war
Thompson, on the other hand, isn't so easily reduced. He doesn’t have a set of foundational characteristics to fall back on when he needs to remind the press he exists. It could have been his acting career, but he chooses not to emphasize that. He opposes abortion, but he doesn't support a "human life" amendment. He opposes gay marriage, but doesn't support a federal marriage amendment. He's a true fiscal conservative, but somehow the Club For Growth hasn't rocketed his candidacy to the front. The one descriptor that seems to stick—lazy—doesn't do him any favors. In this frenetic, sound-bite-friendly race, traditional conservatism isn’t enough. It's December already, and Fred Thompson still needs a hook.
With Chadwick Matlin. Photo illustration by Andy Bouve.
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Last time we checked, Ron Paul was a Republican dark horse
who let his grassroots supporters run his campaign for him. But now Paul is
starting to act more and more like a traditional candidate. A timeline of the
past week:
- Tuesday, December 4 - Word gets
out that Ron Paul blitzed South
Carolina with a
direct mailing that doesn't mention his anti-Iraq stance.
- Wednesday, December 5 - Paul's
campaign sends a news release that says religion
shouldn't be an issue that dogs Mitt Romney's candidacy. "Gov. Romney should be judged
fairly, on his record and his character, not on the church he attends."
- Friday, December 7 - Another
release goes around, this time taking gentle aim at Hillary Clinton for
her stance at ending the foreclosure crisis. "Only Dr. Paul has the
expertise to explain why we must reject further political intervention
into the housing market, such as that advocated by Hillary Clinton."
What does next week hold in store? An attack ad on Mike
Huckabee? Pandering to the religious right?
Ah, who am I kidding? The existence of a Ron Paul blimp
totally disproves my thesis.
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The one useful contribution Tom Tancredo has made to the
2008 presidential race was when he accused the other GOP candidates of “trying
to out-Tancredo Tancredo.” He was right. So far, his opponents have failed to
match the alarmist, borderline socially unacceptable anti-immigrant rhetoric
the Colorado
congressman has spouted. But they come close.
Mike Huckabee’s new immigration
plan, unveiled today, is a case in point. Titled the “Secure America Plan,”
its bullet points include “Build the fence,” “Increase border patrol,” and
“Prevent amnesty,” with this little sub-bullet:
“Propose to provide all illegal immigrants a 120-day window
to register with the Citizenship and Immigration Services and leave the
country. Those who register and return to their home country will face no
penalty if they later apply to immigrate or visit; those who do not return home
will be, when caught, barred from future reentry for a period of 10 years.”
What happened to the Huckabee-approved “pathway to
citizenship”? Here’s what he said in an inteview
last year: “To think that we're going to go lock up 12 million people or even
round them up and drive them to the border and let them go might make a great
political speech but it's not going to happen."
Why the switch from “pathway to citizenship” to
deport-and-blockade? Chalk it up to the tuition breaks flap. In the past few
weeks, Huckabee has defended an Arkansas
program that would have reduced tuition for the children of illegal immigrants.
He claims he doesn’t want to punish children for their parents’ crimes—or, as
he says, “sins.”
But his opponents, and Romney in particular, have no
trouble grilling his cakes over it.
So here comes Huckabee the hawk. Look forward to seeing a
little less compassion and a little more conservatism on this issue in the
coming weeks.
Still waiting for comment from Huck's campaign, will post an update when it
comes in.
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Some of John Edwards’ best friends are black. Unfortunately, Oprah is not one of them.
The Edwards campaign held a conference call today with a group of African-American leaders from South Carolina, who praised the former senator’s commitment to issues that matter to black voters. Unlike his Democratic opponents, Edwards “has committed himself to infrastructure and rural communities, rather than having celebrities come in and sign autographs,” said South Carolina State Rep. Leon Howard.
Whatever could that mean? Could the call possibly be timed to coincide with Oprah’s tour on behalf of Barack Obama? “No, no,” said Howard. “We’re certainly not intimidated by Oprah being here.” “This is not a call about Oprah,” said South Carolina state director John Moylan. It’s about Edwards’ commitment to health care, education, and other issues that matter to African-American voters. In other words, yes, obviously.
Edwards faces an uphill battle in South Carolina, his home state. And this is not a gentle incline: He still polls around 10 percent statewide. His numbers among blacks are even worse: A Winthrop University poll of black voters this fall found that Obama drew 35 percent and Hillary drew 31 percent. Edwards came in around 3 percent.
But according to the leaders on the call, the polls are wrong. “I don’t think he’s trailing, he’s not behind,” said Spartanburg City Councilwoman Linda Dogan. “There’s no doubt in my mind that Sen. Edwards is leading,” said Tyrone Freeman of the Service Employees International Union. He added that he thinks the polls “reflect excitement” about the first viable black presidential candidate, but that “people will make decisions on the issues that affect their lives.” Dr. James Blassingame of the National Baptist Convention said he thinks Edwards’ understanding of these issues will “pull him through” in the final weeks.
The fact is, if Edwards ends up being competitive in South Carolina, it’s not going to be because locals decided to pore over his policy briefs the week before the election. It’s going to be because he performed well in Iowa. Yes, he won South Carolina in 2004. But John Kerry wasn't exactly a commanding presence among African-Americans, at least not on the scale of Clinton or Obama. And that’s just it: Edwards’ problem in winning over black voters isn’t Oprah. It’s his opponents.
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Mike Huckabee's YouTube page lay fallow for most of his campaign, but in the past few weeks it's added some new offerings. First came brief clips of Huckabee and Chuck Norris talking policy. Then today Huckabee's camp unveiled a new Web-advertising campaign that aims to ensnare supporters of other candidates.
The "Switch to Huckabee" campaign has a bare-bones premise. A person stands in front of a beige screen, talks about why they like quirky Mike better than the other candidates, and suggests you might like Mike, too, if you just gave him a shot.
Sound familiar? Compare that with Apple's "switch" ads a few years back: A person stands in front of a white screen, talks about why they think Macs are better than PCs, and proudly declares that they've made "the switch." The two ad campaigns even have the same music.
It's a fun analogy, but it's also flawed. While the Apple ads were catchy, they weren't that successful. Macs still had a low market share because Apple hadn't had its "iPod moment" quite yet. Plus, Mac's operating system was still too weird-looking for Windows-trained office drones. Apple was asking people to make a switch to the Mac before there was any glowing media coverage to grease the wheels.
Huckabee, in contrast, has momentum on his side, and voters are already taking a second look. He has boosted his poll numbers (market share) on his own, thanks to a series of strong debate performances ("iPod moments") and positive media coverage
At this stage, it would make more sense for Huckabee to adapt a different Apple campaign: The popular "I'm a Mac" spots. He is¾for now¾still the quirky upstart. But he's also got the poll numbers to prove he's a major player. And his media glow hasn't yet worn off. All of that sounds similar to Mac's status these days.
Spoofing the ads would be easy. Just set Chuck Norris and a stuffy, well-coifed guy (Whom are Justin Long and John Hodgman supporting, anyway?) against a white backdrop. Norris would say, "I'm Mike Huckabee" as he give a menacing look to the other guy. The Romney stand-in would then respond, "And I'm Mitt Romney." Run through some policy points, make Romney sound like a flip-flopper who is trying to buy the nomination, and voila! You've got yourself a sales pitch; maybe even one that will be as popular as the other Mac ad spoof.