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An Iowa State ROTC student named Jessica explained to me how most of her friends, conservatives all, were swayed to the Huck side.
Initially, most of them supported Thompson because of his traditional conservative stances on abortion and taxation. But a couple months ago, they almost all switched to Huckabee. Was it because of his even more conservative pro-life positions? Was it his loony but still arguable FairTax ideas? Or maybe his views on immigration, compassionate in some cases but also strong when it comes to border security?
None of the above. They switched to Huckabee, according to Jessica, when they saw his Chuck Norris ads.
It's stories like these that make you question the campaigns' claims that they have Iowa's student population bent to their will. Sometimes I wonder if you couldn't sabotage the entire "youth vote" by organizing a Phish reunion concert for Jan. 3 in Des Moines.
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In case you haven't heard, the Democratic caucuses in Iowa aren't exactly a microcosm of American democracy. Secret ballots are unheard of, candidates bribe voters with sandwiches, and second choices aren't just allowed, they're sometimes requested.
On Thursday night many supporters of Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich, and Joe Biden won't be allowed to vote for their candidate. Democratic caucus rules say that any candidate who doesn't pull in 15 percent of the vote at the local caucus meeting isn't "viable," so their supporters must pick another candidate if they want their vote to count. Let's hear it for the democratic process!
Given that, we thought we'd put together a helpful guide for second-tier supporters when they have to shift allegiances. (Richardson supporters can find advice here.) Here’s a rundown on which candidates most closely share Biden's positions (just in case supporters lose their Mo-Joe):
Pakistan: Somehow, John Edwards has been getting rave reviews for his handling of post-Bhutto Pakistan, but picking up the phone when Pervez Musharraf calls doesn't make you an expert. Hillary Clinton seems like she could be a nice fit, with her competency and experience, but Barack Obama is the winner. Even though Biden was annoyed when Obama aped Biden's stance on attacking al-Qaida in Pakistan, the plans still resemble each other.
Iraq: Biden's three-part soft-partition plan is considered the gold-standard among Democrats, which means any of the Big Three are a step backward. This one's a wash.
Health care: Biden's plan doesn’t call for mandatory universal care, but it does make health care accessible to all children. It's far from all of the top Democrats, but it's closest to Obama's since there isn't a mandate for adults.
Resume: If Bill Richardson were polling higher, we'd give him the nod. But since he's unlikely to top the 15 percent threshold in most precincts, Clinton gets the edge. Not because of her White House experience, but because she's the only two-term senator among the top Dems.
There isn't an easy second-choice candidate for Biden supporters. His appeal comes from his foreign affairs expertise and his no-nonsense attitude. In many ways, Biden supporters would probably find a home with John McCain more than any other candidate. That says more about the Democratic front-runners than it does about McCain.
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DES MOINES, Iowa -- It's been a risky day for Mike Huckabee. First he pulled his surprise peace-declaration press conference -- a surprise to even his closest aides. Then he staged a political aide's nightmare: a shave and a haircut open to the press.
Reclining in a barber's chair above Huckabee HQ, the governor was stuck for upwards of 45 minutes as reporters peppered him with questions about his decision to pull the ad. Had anyone been fired over it? No. Does he regret it? "I don't know if it was the right political decision," he said as barber Scott Sales trimmed his locks. "I do know it was the right personal decision." When a reporter pointed out that they didn't get all the audio from the ad, Huckabee made the point I voiced earlier: "Now you can't say we fed you the spot so you could put it on the news." Which is comforting, I guess. Unless, of course, he was planning it the whole time, in which case he's an evil genius who deserves to win anyway.
Eventually the ad questions ran dry, and attention turned elsewhere. What kind of tip did Scott expect? "A good joke," he said. "Some people say my tips are jokes," Huckabee replied. Had he seen Sweeney Todd? No. What are his expectations for Thursday? "A close shave," he said.
The questioning didn't turn ugly. But if it had, there he was, forced to respond to each and every one with nowhere to run. At one point, an aide declared, "No more questions." No one paid attention. Close shave, indeed.
Oh, and to answer your question: The haircut cost $18, the shave was $14.
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DES MOINES, Iowa -- Today, Mike Huckabee essentially declared a war on cynicism. But depending on where you stand, it might be the most cynical campaign move so far.
In a packed press room at the Des Moines Marriott, Huckabee announced that he had decided at the last minute not to air an attack ad on Mitt Romney. See, over the past few days, he's become "very concerned" about the tone of the debate in Iowa. "My ten-and-a-half-year record can't be summed up in a 30-second commercial," he said, referring to ads Romney has been airing attacking Huckabee's record as governor of Arkansas. His campaign had been planning to air a response ad today, but within the last hour decided to pull it.
He then proceeded to play the ad for the roomful of reporters and dozens of cameras.
How now? The reason he had to show it now, he claimed, was that otherwise the press folk wouldn't believe the ad existed.
Why, then, was he standing there surrounded by placards criticizing Romney and McCain? Because the plan had been to hold a press conference attacking his rivals. But his conscience got the better of him. Should he withdraw his comments about Romney being dishonest? "I said what I said, and I spoke the truth." But doesn't this just mean the ad will be shown on every cable station in the country, now that he's shown it to the entire American press corps? Huckabee insisted that was not his intention.
"There's going to be cynicism," he said, maybe in response to the smirks, raised eyebrows, and incredulous laughs circulating the room. But from now on, he claims he is renouncing negative campaigning. It's a "huge gamble on my part," he said, adding that "if it turns out [Romney] pulls away, I'll be the last guy to do this."
By now the needle on your BS meter has probably broken. But here's one reason to believe him -- or at least to hear him out. When they started playing the ad on a big screen, there wasn't any audio at first. "Maybe that's why they're not airing it," someone quipped. They tried rewinding it and playing it again, but no dice. After that, Huckabee just let it run. The sound kicked in toward the end -- he was going after Romney on the usual issues of abortion, guns, and taxes -- but no one in the room could say they had seen the whole ad.
If the point was to get the ad out without actually airing it -- to attack without actually attacking -- then Huckabee or one of his people would have made sure the cameras got the whole thing. But afterwards, reporters were complaining to one of his aides, Charmaine Yoest, that they didn't get any audio. Yoest made it clear they wouldn't be showing it again. Judging from that, it sounds like Huckabee might -- might -- have been sincere.
What this means for the campaign is anyone's guess. Just when he had appeared to reinvent himself as "the New Huck," prickly and hyper-responsive, he's receded back into nice guy territory. Now, if he loses, he can call himself a martyr for the cause of positive campaigning. If he wins, he will go into the general election less bruised than otherwise. Worst case scenario, he goes back into attack mode and undermines his own crusade. Until then, whether or not you believe him is, according to Huckabee, a litmus test for your own cynicism.
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Electability isn't even a word that's recognized by my Microsoft Word dictionary. But in the Democratic race, it's all anybody can talk about.
The rush to the caucus lets candidates shove policy distinctions into the shadows. Now it's about appealing to a more primal belief—that Americans don't want to waste their vote.
All of the candidates have been saying that they are the most electable for some time. And in the past few days, the Big Three have been outspoken about the unelectable pieces of their opponents' messages. But on a conference call today, Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, said something a bit different: Edwards is unelectable not because of his platform, but because he doesn't have enough money.
Edwards' decision to take public financing gave him a burst of money, but it capped his ability to spend in the long run. Essentially, it means Edwards is hamstrung if he wins the nomination in February and has to compete with the Republican nominee through the conventions. Obama's campaign estimates that Edwards will have only about $17 million to play with after Iowa. That $17 million will wilt under the GOP's fiscal sun.
Trying to convince Iowans not to vote for Edwards can easily backfire. Edwards' platform revolves around helping the middle class rise up, and in this wacky race Edwards' campaign's coffer is relatively middle-class. If Obama's camp isn't careful, Iowans will vote for Edwards so they can prove that the middle class can "fight" the rich in Washington. (Cue the Rocky theme.)
Indirectly, though, bringing up Edwards' wallet does allow Obama's campaign to get in another dig at the 527 groups doing Edwards' bidding. As Politico's Ben Smith notes, third-party groups can lobby for Edwards on his behalf. On today's conference call, Plouffe said that Edwards had "obviously showed special skill for benefiting from 527s and outside spending." 527 groups haven't spent money for Obama—yet.
The Obama-Edwards duel proves fights about electability quickly morph into fights about something else: money, flip-flopping, skeletons in the closet, you name it. Electability is a high-stakes "in" to denigrate your opponents while still sounding like America's future is what's most important. That's why campaigns love riffing on it-even if it's not a real word.
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Welcome to caucus week, when campaign staffers and reporters freebase NoDoz, rumors of back room deals circulate, and Iowans are told they're God's gift to the political system.
The corollary to that last part is that any suggestion that Iowans are not the Second Coming times 3 million—or that their antiquated caucus system is somehow inferior or in need of reform—earns a candidate swift rebukes from his or her rivals. A late-night e-mail from Obama spokesman Bill Burton catches this lede from the Columbus Dispatch:
Beginning the presidential nominating process in Iowa, as will occur this week, "makes no sense," says Gov. Ted Strickland, who recently campaigned there for Sen. Hillary Clinton. "I'd like to see both parties say, 'We're going to bring this to an end,' " he said.
Strickland thus violated the first commandment of Iowa politics: He desecrated the caucus.
Time's Mark Halperin assures us all that "Clinton campaign disavows remarks." But that doesn't mean Obama and Edwards won't take this puppy for a ride. It probably won't spark blowback of Shaheen-like proportions, but I wouldn't be surprised if an apology also completely unrelated to the Clinton campaign is in the works. Or maybe they'll let Strickland off with 100 Hail Hawkeyes.
UPDATE 12:19 p.m.: Apparently Strickland isn't alone.