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Before the debate, I cobbled together a list of things to expect, all of which predicted that the candidates would be looking to draw contrasts three weeks before the caucus. Boy was I was wrong. The only fireworks were between Fred Thompson and the debate's moderator, Carolyn Washburn.
That's what happens when you suck immigration and terrorism from the agenda. Right off the top, Washburn declared that she would avoid those topics because Iowans wanted to hear about issues that hadn't been widely discussed. But in a state where 63 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers think immigration is very important and 66 percent say the same about Iraq—according to the latest Newsweek poll (PDF)—it seemed odd to prevent the Republicans from talking about what the people want to hear about.
Instead we got a moribund discussion of economic policy. Granted, 64 percent of likely caucus-goers care about the economy, but today's discussion didn't go into details. Candidates talked about fixing the deficit, repairing American industries, and making President Bush's tax cuts permanent, but we didn't hear how they would do these things. In the past, Giuliani and Romney have had fun drawing minute distinctions between their tax plans, but this is no longer a Romniani race. In Iowa, Mike Huckabee is the big fish, yet nobody scuffed up his fair tax plan.
On climate change, McCain—who is the most visionary on green energy among the Republicans—was one of the first to respond, so the rest just aped his plan. Not exactly illuminating.
The Republicans are most comfortable speaking about their platforms and drawing distinctions when they're talking about issues they can rally their base behind. That means national security, the war on terrorism, and securing the border. Without those issues on the table, we weren't left with much to get worked up about. Neither were the candidates.
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From a post-debate e-mail sent out by Fred Thompson's
campaign:
"I am not sure how these other candidates plan to
defeat al-Qaeda when they can't even take on Carolyn Washburn. The format of
this debate was more of a joke than a Mike Huckabee foreign policy answer."
We should have known Thompson was going to turn his no-nonsense attitude into a talking point. Because one moment you're raising your hand for a moderator, next thing you know Osama's in the Oval Office.
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Like inappropriate comments from your grandparents at Thanksgiving, you just know Mike Huckabee is going to bust out Hucakbeeisms at a debate. Some of our favorites from today's relatively mild discussion:
- On why preventative health care is best: "Kill the snake rather than treat the snake bites."
- Referring to government bureaucracy on how he plans to keep jobs in America: "I can't part the red sea, but I can part the red tape."
- On students' lack of motivation: "They don't drop out because they're dumb, they drop out because they're bored to death."
- On ensuring music and the arts are taught in schools: "Unleash weapons of mass instruction" in schools.
- On education: "Second to being the commander in chief is being the communicator in chief."
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Alan Keyes is all kinds of crazy. But his total lack of subtlety forces the other candidates to respond. “It’s important to be honest about who you are, not change your positions, like sadly Gov. Romney has done,” he said in response to a question on leadership. He made a similar remark about Giuliani’s position on abortion, calling him out by name.
“Gov. Romney, would you like to respond?” the moderator asks. “I’m not sure I do,” he says, but then he does. Same with Giuliani. What Keyes lacks in form, he makes up for in function.
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Quick response round-up. Question: Realistically, what can you accomplish in your first year as president? You have thirty seconds ...
Giuliani: Make sure the country is secure against terrorists. End illegal immigration. Major tax reduction. Reduce size of federal government. Move toward energy independence.
Duncan Hunter: Strengthen U.S. military. Also strengthen the border (build fence). Bring back our industrial base from Communist China.
Ron Paul: End the war. No more preemptive war.
Tom Tancredo: Free Ronaldson Compienne. (Who? [UPDATE: Border patrol agents Ignacio Ramos and Jose Compean, a reader informs me. Gracias!]) Secure the border.
Thompson: Tell the truth. (Wouldn't take a year.) Tell them we're bankrupting next generation.
Romney: I'd do more than talk. Strategy to overwhelm global jihad. End growth in entitlements and federal spending. Get on track to energy independence. Health insurance for every American.
Huckabee: Bring country together. End partisan warfare. We need a president of all the United States.
McCain: Make America safe: "This is a military, diplomatic, and cyberspace challenge." Restore trust in government.
Keyes: Restore sovereignty of American people. Sign pro-life executive order. Abolish income tax. Establish national border guard.
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The moderator, Des Moines Register editor Carolyn Washburn, promised at the beginning not to be "a Grinch." But now everyone's talking over each other. They're refusing to answer yes or no to a question on climate change.
"Can I have a minute to answer it?" Fred Thompson asks. She says no. "Then I won't answer it." Ouch! The other candidates agree. They’re unionizing against the moderator! She finally gives in, which lets Alan Keyes spew nonsense for thirty seconds. In the moment of silence that follows, Thompson's back with the brutal zinger: "I agree with Alan Keyes' position on global warming."
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In response to a question about who spends more than they owe on taxes, Mitt Romney says: "I don’t stay awake at night worrying about the taxes rich people are paying. It's the middle class worries me."
Fred Thompson follow up with The Right Response: "I want to be in the mitt Romney sitation so I don’t have to worry" about taxes.
UPDATE 2:28 p.m.: Actually, scratch that. Here's Thompson on NAFTA: “It's a long, complex document—I have nothing in particular to point out.”
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First question: Are we facing a "tsunami of debt" that threatens our national security?
Ambassador
and Barack Obama roadkill Alan Keyes answers that we "require security"
in order to keep "the blessings of liberty." We must "cut off the
spigot that feeds" the Washington fatcats and other political
"cliques." But most importantly, we must replace our current tax with
the Fair Tax, which will "put the American people in charge" of their
own money.
Did Huckabee bring Keyes in to make his own ideas look sane?
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2 p.m. Des Moines Register debate. Johnston, Iowa. 22 days to the caucus. Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Paul, Romney, Tancredo, and Thompson.
Are you ready for some politics? Some Wednesday afternoon politics?
Things to look for:
- Mike Huckabee attacked from all sides: Immigration, AIDS, anti-Mormon comments, tax record, letting rapists go on parole.
- Mitt Romney on the attack, especially against Huckabee. If he's willing to run a negative ad, you can be sure he's willing to do a little mud wrestling at the debate.
- This is Fred Thompson's last chance to be relevant in this campaign. Desperate politicians are dangerous at last-chance debates. If it weren't Fred Thompson, we'd warn the other candidates to watch out. But, well, it's just Fred.
- Giuliani and McCain may pander for 3rd place, even if that means propping up Huckabee so Romney gets crippled.
- Proof that Alan Keyes exists.
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Some presidential candidates make stickers. Those are fun. Some make posters. I guess those work, too. But some—or rather, one—have giant freaking blimps flying around with their names on them.
If you haven’t seen the Ron Paul blimp passing overhead lately, that’s because the launch was delayed. The blimp was supposed to take off today, but the banners that get stuck to the side of the blimp haven’t arrived yet, according to blimp coordinator Bryce Henderson. “[A] blimp with no message on it simply does not have the same effect,” Henderson wrote in an e-mail.
The blimp tour is organized by an ad-hoc group calling itself, well, Ron Paul Blimp, and it’s financed by contributions on its Web site. The more money donated, the longer the blimp stays aloft. They’re up to about $234,000 as of Wednesday, which should keep the blimp airborne through Dec. 24, according to Henderson. But there’s no definite end date—if people keep giving, the blimp keeps going. Henderson says the blimp will probably fly over Iowa during the Jan. 3 caucuses, and there’s a tentative schedule to keep it floating through the Feb. 5 primaries, cash willing.
The blimp project is a lot like Ron Paul’s October “money bomb” in that it’s organized entirely by supporters. But as a fund-raising gimmick, it’s fairly useless. Campaign finance laws prevent Ron Paul Blimp from coordinating with the campaign, so the money they collect can’t go toward ground organization. Instead, donors are paying for pure, unalloyed publicity: The value a thousand heads turning upward and saying, “Holy crap, it’s a Ron Paul blimp.” And unlike the October “money bomb,” there’s something in it for donors. Anyone who gives $5,000 to the blimp gets to ride in it. (About a dozen people have so far.)
The genius of the stunt—other than the potential for exposure—is its utter silliness. “A blimp?” you say. “Who does that?” But it works because no one takes Ron Paul all that seriously in the first place. Somehow a Hillary Blimp or a John Edwards Blimp wouldn’t quite work. But a Ron Paul Blimp—now that just makes sense.
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In November, John Edwards began airing a series of ads called “Heroes” that called average Americans the heroes of the country. He first ran the ad in Iowa and then adapted the spot for the New Hampshire market by swapping in less rural, more New England-ish scenes.
Today he released the South Carolina version, which explicitly caters toward a larger African-American audience. Nearly 30 percent of the Palmetto State’s population is African-American, according to 2005 statistics from the U.S. census. That’s compared with 1 percent of New Hampshire and 2.3 percent of Iowa.
You can see a side-by-side-by-side comparison on Slate V. We wrote about this when Edwards swapped some characters for the New Hampshire version. Selections from that post are republished below.
Gone are the tractors, suspenders, and trucker hats. Instead, the new characters have nondescript profile shots. The ad replaces an image of an older white couple with two younger adults, one of whom appears to be a person of color. Plus, instead of a white woman near the end of the ad, the ad shows a black woman.
The changes come after the Iowa ad caught flak from bloggers for being almost exclusively white. The Edwards campaign countered that the waitress in the diner is Hispanic, but ABC News' Jake Tapper insisted that the "optics" of the ad didn't convey any diversity.
Edwards' national spokesman, Eric Schultz, told me that the "Heroes" series of ads "highlights the hard-working men and women from across the country." The new version, he says, is specific to New Hampshire, and the new faces in it are all New Hampshire residents. Many of the characters in the Iowa ad, however, are also in the New Hampshire ad (including the Latina waitress).
What we're seeing may be yet another example of the YouTube Effect. Advertisements can no longer be contained to a specific audience in the age of YouTube. The campaign got burned on its Iowa ad because the world had access to it, not just 3 million Iowa residents. Now we have a different set of characters in the New Hampshire ad.