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Black people, on average, are more likely to die of cancer than white people. Is part of that difference genetic? The Journal of the National Cancer Institute just published a big study on this question. If you haven't heard about the study, maybe that's because you get your news from television, National Public Radio, the Associated Press, or the New York Times, which have ignored it. Why would they ignore it? Because the study suggests the answer is yes. It's OK to report that racial differences in cancer outcomes are caused by poverty and discrimination. It's not OK to report that they're inherited.
More here.
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Steve Sailer has replied to my last comment on our differences over racial inequality. He accuses me of triangulating against him. He's right. The only part he left out is that sometimes you get triangulated because you're actually wrong.
Here are three passages that crystallize where we disagree. First:
To Saletan, my having spent years toiling at the unpopular task of correctly figuring out one of the central conundrums facing modern America—how race, IQ and public policy interact—makes me a bad person.
Stop right there. Race and genes interact. Genes and IQ interact. But to say that race and IQ interact, without even mentioning genetics or environment, is a scientific and moral mistake. It's like saying that race and criminality interact, without acknowledging any intervening variable. Race is not a causal unit.
Second:
For purposes of sensible public policy, arguing over whether genetics plays a role in racial differences in achievement is a red herring. What's crucial to understand is that racial differences—for whatever reasons—are unlikely to vanish Real Soon Now, as all right-thinking people are supposed to assume.
Say it's discovered in 2010 that the entire cause of the black-white IQ gap is some hitherto unknown micronutrient needed by pregnant women that African-Americans don't get enough of, and a crash program is put into place immediately to solve the problem. If that happened, the IQ gap among working-age adults still wouldn't disappear until the late 2070s. ...
Of course, if there really are genetic differences in average intelligence among the races, that would make the "disparate impact" notion look silly. But it's not actually necessary to know that. It's merely enough to know that fair and valid predictors of future job performance have routinely found substantial gaps for decades.
That's a pretty clear statement that public policy has no responsibility to redress any cause of racially unequal outcomes. Hey, I'm all for colorblindness. But segregation? Denial of schooling? Some injustices demand redress. Sailer's argument rationalizes too much. Did childhood poverty deprive you of equal educational opportunity? Did Jim Crow impair your family's ability to accumulate financial and cultural assets? Too bad. You and the other kids screwed by this legacy have flunked "fair and valid predictors of future job performance." Here, take this mop. And hang onto it, because your kids will need it.
It's one thing to say we can't affect the distribution of talent. It's quite another to say we have no responsibility to affect or compensate for the distribution of resources.
Third:
As long as legal immigrants are carefully selected for optimum benefit to current American citizens, as well as (to quote the Preamble to the Constitution) "our posterity", and are quite limited in number, then I don't see much reason to consider race in choosing legal immigrants.
Others would disagree. Overall, it's not a particularly big issue as long as we change the law from the current system of "family reunification" chain migration.
Don't see "much" reason? Not a big issue?
What reason would there be to consider race in choosing immigrants? And if we did that, are you saying you wouldn't mind?
Sailer and other exponents of "human biodiversity" seem to want more attention and respect than they've been getting. Here are two ways they can earn it. First, show as much interest in biodiversity within racial and ethnic groups as in biodiversity between them. And second, take into account the reality of racism, not just the reality of race. That's part of human nature, too.
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We've already identified genes that correlate with traits and vary in prevalence between ethnic groups. Are you confident that intelligence will turn out to be exempt from this list? Confident enough to leave no backup plan, no understanding of equality that can withstand a partial role for heredity? Confident enough to keep tallying and reporting test scores by race? And if intelligence turns out not to vary genetically between groups, do you imagine that we'll get just as lucky with every other significant mental trait?
More here.
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People of your race may be on average faster, smarter, or more volatile than people of my race. But the opposite pattern may turn up if you and I are classified in some other way. ... The distribution question doesn't settle the framing question, because race is just one way in which ability can be unevenly distributed. To answer the framing question in the affirmative, you have to show something more. You have to show that classifying and comparing by race, rather than using some other classification system or judging each person as an individual, does more good than harm.
More here.
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Housekeeping note: If you haven't bookmarked the Human Nature home page, I recommend it. It always has the best and freshest news from around the Web in easy-to-click format. Everything I discuss here, plus the stuff I can't get to, is posted there first. So are links to all the latest Human Nature essays and blog items. If you don't have it bookmarked, and the Slate URL is too hard to remember, just type humannature.us.com.
Here's one story you'll find there and in this morning's news batch: U.S. surgeons have begun the long process of repairing a 15-year-old Filipino girl, Jingle Luis, whose feet are so clubbed that they've twisted upside down and backward. The AP story explains:
Jingle's case is more severe than those usually seen by doctors in industrialized countries. "Generally speaking, with modern technology, it doesn't get to this point," said Dr. Terry Amaral, a pediatric orthopedic surgeon who performed the surgery. ... Clubfoot is a relatively common deformity, occurring in about one in 1,000 births. Children are usually treated in infancy with casts or braces that gradually bring the feet into correct alignment. The condition becomes harder to treat if it is not corrected early on.
It sounds like Jingle wasn't treated as a baby because the Philippines lacked the necessary technology. But that's not what happened. Read further:
Amaral said Jingle's case was complicated by the fact that her clubfoot was associated with spina bifida. ... He said doctors who saw Jingle as a baby thought that her spina bifida would shorten her life span and prevent her from walking, so they did not treat the clubfoot. "They felt it wasn't worth managing because of the life expectancy, so they decided to leave it alone," Amaral said.
This is a major factor in treatment decisions around the world. Often, the problem isn't that doctors in less-developed countries can't fix you. It's that resources are limited and that in this context, life-expectancy projections come into play.
In Jingle's case, doctors misjudged the severity of her spina bifida. If she'd been born in the U.S., it's likely that her doctors would have recognized that the defect wasn't so bad. But it's also likely that they would have calculated her prospects differently altogether. That's because life expectancies differ significantly between rich and poor countries, and life expectancies for infants with significant health problems differ even more. Life expectancy isn't a purely biological calculation. It's a socioeconomic calculation.
The interplay of economic progress, life expectancy, and treatment decisions doesn't end in childhood, or with the case of one disabled girl. In fact, it's going to be one of the most powerful forces driving the world in this century and beyond. Thanks to economic and technological progress, life expectancies are rising around the world. Some of this is due to reductions in child mortality. But a lot of it, if not most, is due to increases in the length of old age. As we conquer diseases and improve public health, people in India, China, and elsewhere can expect to live many years longer. That, in turn, is transforming calculations about which conditions are worth treating. If the average woman in Shanghai is probably going to make it to 75 instead of 65, a disease that strikes her at 60 and would take five years to kill her becomes, in utilitarian terms, a disease worth treating.
What's happening, in short, is an increase not just in our technological ability, but in our moral expectations. It's a wonderful thing. But it's going to be incredibly expensive.
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Last week I promised to start using this blog to highlight and explain the day's top stories. Unfortunately, scanning wires, papers, magazines, journals, and Web sites for the best stories (make sure to bookmark the Human Nature home page so you'll get the list every day) has taken so much time that I haven't been able to make good on my promise. Sorting out how long these tasks take, and which of them I should spend my time on, will take at least a few weeks. Anyway, I've cleared some time this afternoon to talk about today's stories, so let's get to it.
One item worth noting is today's Wall Street Journal article [subscription required] on hospitals replacing factories. Reporter Conor Dougherty lays out the data:
Demand for health care tends to stay strong during recessions. Cash-strapped consumers are more likely to cut back on new appliances or cars than emergency-room visits. Indeed, while the number of manufacturing jobs nationwide fell by 48,000 in March and by 310,000 over the past 12 months, health-care employment rose by 23,000 last month and is up 363,000 jobs on the year ... Growth in health care is fueling local economies across the country, as medical facilities replace factories. In Duluth, Minn., 20% of the jobs are in health care, compared with 14% a decade ago. In the Canton, Ohio, area, which lost the maker of Hoover vacuum cleaners and dozens of other manufacturers, the health-care industry is expanding rapidly. A similar story is unfolding in Anderson, Ind., once a major producer of cars and car parts.
I haven't researched this topic enough to analyze all the factors. But one theme is already intriguing: An economy based on constructing and repairing objects is giving way to an economy based on repairing and maintaining the human body. Faced with recession, consumers are deciding that widgets are expendable, but people aren't.
Actually, that's not quite right. We haven't decided that the health of all people is so important. The manufacturing that used to happen here is migrating to the developing world. Likewise, its replacement by hospitals is happening here, not there. Yes, American and European medicine are often being outsourced to poorer countries. But the patients benefiting from this overseas treatment are still American and European. Just ask all those transplant tourists.
My bet is that the trends reflected in this article will dominate the economy of the next century. The biotechnology of human health will increasingly become the technology most highly valued by the measure that counts most: economic demand. To put it in moral terms: The most valued objects of maintenance and repair will be subjects.
That's the good news. The bad news is that because the mechanism behind this process is economic, and because wealth is unevenly distributed, billions of people will benefit little or not at all. Dougherty shows us, through interviews and stories, how easily supply and demand can shuffle workers not only from manufacturing to health care, but vice versa when nursing wages don't add up. That's why, in much of the world, the economy will continue to value objects more than subjects, no matter what morality says.