Game On
How to use video games to imagine the future of war.
Still courtesy of Activision
A version of this article first appeared on War on the Rocks.
Recently, Call of Duty: Black Ops series director Dave Anthony was hired for an unpaid position as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Anthony will help with the council’s work on the future of warfare. Anthony’s comments and his job description in the Atlantic Council press release suggest that he and the institution view his role as mining fiction to better inform reality. At first glance, given the futuristic games he has developed and the extensive consulting he has conducted with experts, the move seems like a no-brainer. Black Ops 2 in particular is seen by leading defense futurists as a chilling vision of future warfare.
There’s certainly solid precedent for it. In 1997, Marine Corps Gen. Charles C. Krulak called for better ways of improving military thinking and decision-making. The response was Marine Doom, a modified version of Doom geared toward preparing Marines for the battlefields of the future. The defense world has long called for better integration between the defense industry and the entertainment industry in simulation, modeling, and analysis of future scenarios. The Navy, with the aid of the Institute for the Future, recently stood up its own multiplayer game to crowdsource insights and ideas about future technology and tactics. Finally, institutions like USC’s Institute for Creative Technologies bring together the best minds in art and entertainment to help solve public policy problems.
However, with great gaming power also comes great gaming responsibility. For decades, defense thinkers have pointed out that war games’ expressive power is both a blessing and a curse. In the right hands, a simulation or game can spur creative thinking and insight. But sometimes a war game merely reifies the assumptions of top generals and hinders our ability to comprehend adaptive adversaries.
More broadly, fictional worlds (especially science fiction) are often reflections of the underlying biases of their creators—and those they consult. In movies and games, consumers desire at least the illusion of realism. Those who lack extensive knowledge of the topic they seek to simulate often turn to the next best source: subject matter experts. As a result, entertainment, as defense futurist Peter W. Singer rightly argues, increasingly becomes “militainment.” (Singer is a fellow at New America; Future Tense is a partnership of Slate, New America, and Arizona State University.) As Singer observes, we have always been drawn toward depicting the stories of war. Yet, in recent years, Singer notes that we are seeing a move in the opposite direction: “The military is starting to pull from this world [of video games] for its own tools, techniques, procedures.”
Somewhere along the way, Black Ops 2 became more than just a game. In Singer’s words it is an “inspiration” and a setter of “expectation[s].” Critics warn that this blurs the distinction between simulation and reality, but this criticism is wrongheaded. As cognitive science researcher Samuel Wintermute argues, our action and reasoning in the world is enabled by simulation—and this understanding of cognition may be key to building intelligent machines. Cognitive robotics specialist William Kennedy (who is a professor at George Mason University, where I am a Ph.D. student) argues that we simulate the actions of those we interact with through models of ourselves. Simulation is key to human existence, so Singer is not wrong to endow something like Black Ops 2 with significant power and potential.
A more pertinent question, given the storytelling power and immersion of games, is how we know whether these expectations are the right ones. To be truly useful for defense futurism, games have to be something more than a reflection of the latest drone book or last week’s think tank briefing on latest new cyber-doom scenario. Unfortunately, in this respect Black Ops 2, which was released in 2012, represents a consensus future that is very much a product of a particular time and place.
In 2012, the U.S. defense community was in a state of transition away from its preoccupation with counterinsurgency. This is reflected in the grab bag of thematic elements Black Ops 2 displays. A declining West and a rising East? Check. Cyber catastrophe? Check. Power diffusing to nonstate actors with an Occupy/Anonymous-like dynamic? Got that, too. Drones gone wild, and badass special operators that save the day? You get the idea. Black Ops 2 promised gamers a bold new vision of future warfare, and Dave Anthony—to his credit – sought out what was bold and new during the game’s development cycle. He picked the brains of a diverse array of defense and security analysts, and applied some entertainment industry magic to turn this intellectual soup into a compelling and highly lucrative game.