Sports Nut

Golden State vs. LeBron and Paul George and Andre Drummond …

Could the new-look Warriors beat a team of Eastern Conference All-Stars?

Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant ponders various bizarre thought experiments about the 2016–17 Golden State Warriors.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

In the hours after Kevin Durant announced he would sign with Golden State, I suggested that the Warriors’ new lineup—the Earth Extinction Event—might beat the best fivesome from the entire rest of the NBA. Yeah, that was a bit silly. Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, and Draymond Green are good, but they’re (probably) not good enough to beat Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis. But what if we change the terms of the parlor game a little bit? The Ringer did it on Tuesday, asking readers to construct a Warriors-beating lineup on a budget. (My starting five: Ricky Rubio, Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Karl-Anthony Towns, Ben Simmons. They would lose in such an entertaining, long-armed way!) Here’s another variation: Can you construct a five-man lineup that would beat the 2016–17 Warriors using players exclusively from the Eastern Conference?

You might think that would be an easy task. The East—hey, that’s where LeBron plays! Also, there are a lot of teams in the East: 15 at last count, now that the Sixers have a quorum of professional basketball players. On the downside, the East is terrible. Western Conference teams have a winning record against the Eastern Conference in 16 of the past 17 seasons. The East is just as pitiful when it comes to accumulating elite talent. The Eastern Conference had just one guy, LeBron, on the All-NBA first team this past season, no players on the second team, and three (George, Andre Drummond, and Kyle Lowry) on the third team.

The Warriors, like all 15 teams in the East collectively, had one player (Steph Curry) on the first team. The 2016–17 Warriors leap ahead of the East with two guys, Durant and Green, on the second team. And Thompson made the third team, meaning the Warriors and the East were tied with four All-NBA picks. Keep in mind that the Warriors have essentially eight established NBA players right now: the five guys already discussed, plus Shaun Livingston and (reportedly) Zaza Pachulia and David West. Assuming that Golden State won’t add any additional members of the All-NBA team this offseason, it’ll have four superstars on its 15-man roster—27 percent. Last year, the East had four All-NBA players out of roughly 225: 2 percent. Do better, East.

What is our best Eastern Conference lineup? LeBron, Lowry, George, Drummond, and … Paul Millsap? Maybe Jimmy Butler instead of Millsap for versatility, ball-handling, and defense on the wing. LeBron-Lowry-George-Butler-Drummond is a very, very strong team. Put those guys together for a year, let them build some chemistry, and they’d probably be favored over the 2016–17 Warriors. But I’m not 100 percent sure. You might just be better off subbing in Kyrie Irving for Lowry, Tristan Thompson for Millsap, and sticking with George and Butler because you forgot to tell Kevin Love and J.R. Smith about this fun thought experiment. Those Super Cavs would have a chance, so long as Harrison Barnes misses a bunch of open threes (implausible, since he no longer exists in this scenario), and they can persuade Green to hit someone in the nuts (more plausible).

To add a microscopic amount of heft to this exercise, let’s take a look at a couple of advanced stats. Going by win shares from the 2015–16 season, here are the Warriors in order of descending greatness: Curry (17.9), Durant (14.5), Green (11.1), Thompson (8.0), Iguodala (4.4). That’s a total of 55.9. The top five in the East: LeBron (13.6), Lowry (11.6), Hassan Whiteside (10.3), Millsap (10.1), DeMar DeRozan (9.9). That’s 58.2. The East wins, albeit barely. But I would take Curry/Klay/Draymond/K.D./Iggy over LeBron/Lowry/Whiteside/Millsap/DeRozan all day every day.

ESPN’s real plus-minus, a measure of individual players’ influence on both offense and defense, doesn’t particularly like Klay and Iggy. Again, here are the Warriors in descending order: Green (8.97), Curry (8.51), Durant (6.48), Thompson (1.77), Iguodala (1.69). That’s a total of 27.42. The best five from the Eastern Conference: LeBron (9.79), Lowry (6.82), Kevin Love! (5.31), Millsap (5.24), George (5.24). Add them up and you get 32.08. The East wins again. But again, I’d probably bet on the Warriors.

In reality, the Warriors will not cruise to the 2017 NBA title. Something always happens: an injury, struggles with incorporating a new player, the rise of an unexpected rival. But in this imaginary universe, with everyone healthy, the best version of the Warriors looks as close to unbeatable as an NBA team can get. And that’s still the case even when you give LeBron James the best possible set of teammates from the east side.