How to win office NCAA pool: Act like a hedge-fund manager and pick Texas to win it all.

The stadium scene.
March 14 2011 12:08 PM

How To Win Your NCAA Pool

Act like a hedge-fund manager and pick Texas to win it all.

Texas Longhorns basketball team. Click image to expand.
The Texas Longhorns in a January game against the Kansas Jayhawks

A version of this article originally ran in 2009. Last year, our advice to bet on Duke paid off when the Blue Devils won the title. The story has now been updated for the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

For anyone who, like me, merely hopes to survive March Madness with minimal embarrassment, the introduction of wisdom-of-the-crowd statistics to online bracket contests has been pure salvation. Even though I didn't follow college basketball this winter, I can fake a little competence by basing my picks on what a majority of all entrants think will happen. By copying the "national bracket," as ESPN calls it, I'll lose my $5 with dignity. That's the magic of crowd-sourced bracketology: So long as your office pool is big enough to resemble a cross section of America, you're unlikely to finish in last place.

Of course, you're also very unlikely to win if you copy everybody else's picks. Even if you get the last few games right for the big points, a lot of other people will, too. At least one of them will probably be luckier than you. Still,  collective wisdom can be eerily powerful  in the right circumstances. The national bracket typically performs well, as  various commentators  have noted, though it will probably win the money in only a very small pool populated by inexpert players. So is there a way to use these collective picks to your advantage while still having a prayer of taking home the pot?

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As it turns out, the wisdom-of-crowds information is extremely useful. The statisticians and expert bracketologists I talked to all urged one central point: Don't think about guessing the most games correctly. Instead, think about finding "bargains" in the bracket where collective wisdom runs askance of more objective measurements. Exploiting games where your fellow bracketologists are likely to guess wrong—even if the odds of that happening are still against you—will give you the best shot at jetting ahead of the pack. An NCAA bracket, then, is more like a long-shot stock than a game; the odds of winning may be low, but the big pot makes the gamble worth it—if you know how to maximize your investment.

The "contrarian" strategy I'm suggesting here isn't new; correctly choosing upsets has always given pool jockeys a major boost. What's changed in the last few years is our ability to value the risk and rewards of a given bet and to decide whether it's worth it. This bracket-picking strategy isn't so different from the way Wall Street became obsessed with modeling risk, as Wired has  chronicled. The key is having access to two data sets: the wisdom-of-the-crowds data from the national bracket and a table of more objective stats. By comparing the two, you'll be able to assess whether you're getting bang for your buck when you throw your lot in with an underdog team.

Before you start filling out your bracket, then, you need to choose some measure of team strength that's free of biases and groupthink. Here, the bountiful Internet does not disappoint. Dabblers can choose from many different statistical measures—adjusted scoring margin, the Ken Pomeroy ratingsJeff Sagarin's computer ratings—that rank teams based on factors like strength of schedule and margin of victory. Other services, like  BracketBrains, charge a fee for rigorous analysis, factoring in the results of real games between similar pairs of teams, the distance from each team's home campus, and so forth.