Who's going to win the World Series?

Full disclosure: I am a Red Sox fan. I readily acknowledge that I can't think about the Yankees rationally, and I'm simultaneously convinced that the Sox will win the World Series going away and that they'll finish in the cellar. I recognize that National League baseball is superior, but I can't get myself to care about it as much as I should. That said, on with the preview—American League East first, of course.

AL East
New York Yankees: It's madness not to pick them. They'll win the pennant, again, because they're fielding the same team, plus Mike Mussina. The starting rotation is scary, Mariano Rivera never blows saves, and the offense is solid top-to-bottom (though not spectacular—the team batting average last year was only a point higher than the league average). What could go wrong with the Yankees? There's always the idea that this is finally the year they grow too old. Clemens dominated during the second half and playoffs last season, and he works out like a maniac in the off-season, but he's 38 and injury-prone. Paul O'Neill still drove in 100 runs (exactly), but he's also 38 and starting to show it. Scott Brosius, Orlando Hernandez, and Tino Martinez are in their mid-30s.

Toronto Blue Jays: Second place was a tossup between the Jays and the Red Sox until Nomar Garciaparra was lost for half the season. Toronto doesn't have a starter even half as good as Pedro Martinez, but the bottom of the two rotations are mostly comparable: .500 pitchers with the potential to do better but no solid evidence that they ever will. The Jays offense has unfathomable power. Five guys hit more than 30 home runs: Carlos Delgado (41 homers), Brad Fullmer (32), Tony Batista (41, though he will have trouble duplicating that), and Jose Cruz (31). Three others hit more than 20 (Darrin Fletcher, Shannon Stewart, and Raul Mondesi). Expect Mondesi to hit more this season.

Boston Red Sox: Spring was pretty ugly for the Sox. The Garciaparra injury is devastating. But there is more. Manny Ramirez, the savior, was hurt and showed that his attitude could be a problem (which is especially significant because he plays next to the stormy Carl Everett). David Cone isn't ready and might never be. Rolando Arrojo pitched himself and his hefty contract into long relief. The offense could still be explosive with Ramirez and Everett, not to mention Dante Bichette and the underrated Chris Stynes. And Pedro Martinez is Pedro Martinez (he gave up one run and one walk this spring). Hideo Nomo eats innings, and the two young starters Tomo Okha and Paxton Crawford looked good last year in brief big-league stints. But they're untested, and a team usually can't win without its franchise player.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: The real question here is: Are the Orioles really worse than the Devil Rays? Yes. The Devil Rays at least have the potential to be decent. Juan Guzman and Wilson Alvarez would have made a good one-two seven years ago (combined record in 1993, 29-11). They don't now (combined record last year, 0-1), but maybe, just maybe, they'll stay healthy and pitch well (of course, neither is healthy enough for the Opening Day roster). Likewise, Greg Vaughn could hit 50 homers (28 last year) and Vinny Castilla could hit 40 (six last year). Ben Grieve is a good young player, and Fred McGriff will probably knock in 100 runs again. Still, there's not a single impact player on the roster. And the bullpen sucks.

Baltimore Orioles: They lost Albert Belle to arthritis, Brady Anderson is on the way down, and the rest of the lineup puts up dime-a-dozen .275/15/65-type numbers. Pat Hentgen is a solid pitcher, but not a real No. 1 (and definitely not a Mike Mussina replacement). Although Sidney Ponson is still improving, Jose Mercedez isn't as good as his record, and the other two spots will go to kids who posted bad records and high ERAs last year. It's bad. Real bad. Remember when we thought Baltimore was a big-market team? At least the fans can squeeze some joy out of Camden Yards and Cal Ripken Jr.

AL Central
Cleveland Indians: It's boring to pick the Indians, but when a team can lose Manny Ramirez and shrug because it replaced him with Juan Gonzalez, it can't do anything but win. The offense is still explosive, Kenny Lofton can still lead off, and Roberto Alomar is still one of the best all-around players in the game. Ellis Burks and Travis Fryman (when he returns from the DL) can still hit. Jim Thome has tremendous power, even though he'll strike out 200 times again. The middle infield is a defensive marvel. The rotation is good at the top (Bartolo Colon, Dave Burba, Chuck Finley) and probably good enough at the bottom (most likely Steve Karsay and Steve Woodard). But Cleveland is no lock. The Indians have plenty of weaknesses for a Kansas City or a Chicago to exploit. The catching tandem of Einar Diaz and Eddie Taubensee doesn't recall Sandy Alomar, circa 1997. The bullpen is iffy. Bob Wickman isn't a real closer.

Kansas City Royals: This is a risky pick because the White Sox are supposed to finish second or even win the division. But it's impossible not to like the Royals. The rotation is full of no-names, but they're young, they'll eat innings, and they'll keep the offense in games. Speaking of keeping the offense in games, the bullpen isn't great, but it's nothing like the one that blew 56 saves over the past two seasons. Roberto Hernandez is a legitimate closer, and Doug Henry is a tested setup guy. The offense has some holes (for instance, the Carlos Febles/Ray Sanchez double-play combination hits like the middle infielders of yore, not the Jeff Kents and Alex Rodriguezes of today), but Mike Sweeney and Jermaine Dye are as productive as any middle of the order in the league (combined 262 RBI last season). Joe Randa is a solid hitter, and Carlos Beltran is sure to improve on last season (though he probably won't match 1999). The Royals will be tested early: They play the Yankees six of their first nine games.

Chicago White Sox: The Sox are much better than a third-place team, but the Central is going to be wild, and somebody has to finish third. David Wells is aging, but he threw almost 230 innings last year. The rest of the rotation is solid. Jim Parque and Cal Eldred won't be all stars, but they'll win games. Offensively, Frank Thomas appears to be over his mid-career slump, Magglio Ordonez is a bona fide star, and the supporting cast is very good. Ray Durham scores runs and has a little power. Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko, and Jose Valentin each drove in 90 runs last season. Catching could be a problem if Sandy Alomar gets hurt, which is a good bet. Five out of their first eight games are against the Indians, so if one team is much better than the other, fans will know early.

Detroit Tigers: Despite the brief wild-card chase last season, Detroit just isn't very good. The loss of Nomo and Gonzales hurts a lot. Still, unlike the Twins, they at least have a major-league offense. Tony Clark, Dean Palmer, and Bobby Higginson have real power. Deivi Cruz is a comer, Roger Cedeno is superfast, Mitch Meluskey is a good hitting catcher (though not a good catching catcher, which could be a problem), and Damian Easley can hit a little. The rotation is average, but all the starters have experience and have, for the most part, been able to stay healthy.