The Pentagon revealed a bit more of its defense budget today, and, really, the proposed cuts in spending amount to no big deal. It would be hard to justify not making these cuts. If Congress winds up wanting to cut deeper, there’s plenty of room for more hacking.
First, a word of caution: There are many ways to calculate a “cut,” and some will no doubt invoke a few to claim that the Obama administration’s cuts are severe. Let’s go to the numbers.
In his press conference today, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said that he will request $525 billion for fiscal year 2013—plus $88 billion for “overseas contingency operations” (aka the wars in Afghanistan and elsewhere, the costs for which have generally been considered separately from the baseline budget).
Some hawks will no doubt scream that this constitutes a cut of $45 billion, or 8 percent—a substantial rip for a single year. But this claim is at best misleading. It’s true that, a year ago, the Pentagon projected that the budget for FY 2013 (at the time, two years out) would be $571 billion.
Compared with that figure, the sum Panetta settles for ($525 billion) is $45 billion less. But last year’s actual FY 2012 budget was $531 billion. And compared with this figure, the proposal for FY 2013 is a cut of just $6 billion, or 1 percent.
Caspar Weinberger pulled this trick all the time when he was Ronald Reagan’s defense secretary. He would insist that he was making drastic cuts by comparing his budget with what he’d projected it to be (sincerely or not) the year before—while, in fact, he was requesting massive increases.
I haven’t seen anyone do this yet, but conceivably some extreme critic might complain that Obama is cutting the budget by $72 billion. You could get there by adding, on top of the misleading $45 billion, the $27 billion he’s cutting from overseas contingency operations. But of course this latter cut reflects the withdrawal of all troops from Iraq and the beginning of the drawdown from Afghanistan. (Would even a Republican presidential candidate distort reality this much? It wouldn’t be the grossest instance.)
In any case, looking at the five-year defense plan that Panetta presented, the military budget goes back up in fiscal year 2014 and each year after, winding up at $567 billion in FY 2017. Measured in “real dollars” (that is, adjusting for inflation), the budget at least stays fairly constant—all five years amounting to a total cut (not an average annual cut but a total cut) of just 1.6 percent. This is the work of a paring knife, not a meat cleaver.
What are Obama and Panetta cutting?
As has been long predicted, the biggest knife goes to the Army, which is set to lose eight brigades and see its active-duty troop level decline from a post-9/11 peak of 570,000 (reached in 2010) to 490,000.
This seems to be a substantial cut—14 percent. But three facts need to be kept in mind.
First, a few years ago, the Army made plans, without any controversy, to cut 49,000 of those troops: This was the number that had been added on, as a temporary measure, to allow for the “surges” in Iraq and Afghanistan. So the Army needs to cut only 31,000 more to meet the target.
Second, 100,000 troops just left Iraq; another 33,000 will leave Afghanistan by the end of this year. If Panetta didn’t deactivate some of them, where would they all go? Where, for what contingency or threat, are they needed? For instance, part of Panetta’s plan, which was fully coordinated with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is to deactivate two of the remaining four brigades stationed in Europe. Does anybody have a problem with that?
Third, even with these cuts, the Army will have more troops than it did in 2001. There will also still be a half-million in the National Guard and Reserve, which Panetta is leaving alone. He’s also leaving uncut the corps of midgrade officers (mainly colonels), so that, if a larger force does need to be recruited in a hurry, the combat leaders will still be there. Also he’s increasing the number of Special Operations Forces.
Under the plan, the Air Force will also lose six of its tactical fighter squadrons (out of its current 60) and 130 aging cargo-transport planes (leaving it with a fleet of 392). The budget sheets passed out at today’s briefing aren’t sufficiently detailed to allow for conclusions on whether these cuts are excessive. I’m sure we’ll know more once Panetta has to counter the inexorable protests by members of Congress from districts with large aerospace contracts.