Crossing the Red Line
The Bush administration fiddles while North Korea goes nuclear.
Last month the North Koreans took a step that nine years ago when they threatened to take the same step, pushed President Bill Clinton to mobilize for war. George W. Bush's response, now that they've actually done the deed? A shrug.
This is, at the very least, bizarre.
The step, which was revealed in last Friday's New York Times, was truly serious. Through much of January, the Times reported, U.S. satellite photos were showing trucks lining up at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex—specifically, pulling up to the building that houses 8,000 nuclear fuel rods—and driving away.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what was happening. A few weeks earlier, North Korea had told inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, who had been monitoring the fuel rods since 1994, to go home. Then it unlocked the seals that had kept the fuel rods securely in a storage pond. Now it seems clear the rods were moved out—an action that Clinton officials warned would cross the "red line." If these rods are taken to a reprocessing plant, they can produce enough plutonium to make about one atom bomb a week, starting in as soon as a month or so.
The real point, though, is that we don't know where the rods are going. Ever since the end of last year, North Korean officials have been all but crying out for negotiations with the United States, threatening to resume their nuclear program if Bush did not resume living up to the U.S. side of Clinton's 1994 agreement (namely, to supply North Korea with a lightweight reactor and to sign a non-aggression pact), which back then averted war.
If Bush had started talks a few weeks ago, the fuel rods would still be in the ponds; had a deal been struck, the seals could have been locked back on, the IAEA inspectors flown back in. But, despite tentative gestures in that direction (which misled me into writing at the time that Bush seemed to be "coming to his senses" on Korea), this administration appears to equate negotiations with appeasement. And so now, even if talks began tomorrow and the North Koreans trucked the rods back to Yongbyon, we will never know whether all of them have really been returned.
The Bush people, at least publicly, are strangely nonchalant about this development. The Times quoted a senior administration official as saying, "There's still a debate about exactly what we are seeing and how provocative it is." The story further noted, "Some in the Bush administration believe that North Korea could simply be conducting the nuclear activity as part of an elaborate bluff, hoping it will bring the Bush administration to the negotiating table."
These are stupefying statements. If Secretary of State Colin Powell possesses evidence anywhere near this solid that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction or ties to al-Qaida terrorists, he should have no problem making a case for war when he briefs the U.N. Security Council this Wednesday. Yet faced with clear-cut proof of North Korea's intentions and capabilities to produce nuclear weapons, the administration goes suddenly weak-kneed.
Certainly the North Koreans are hoping to bring Bush to the table. But why should they bluff about reprocessing their fuel rods? Why wouldn't—why shouldn't—they think that a handful of nukes will give them more leverage?
Bush said in his State of the Union message that he will "isolate" North Korea until it abandons its nuclear ambitions. But this isn't a terribly potent threat to a regime that, through its 50-year history, has thrived on isolation; that has turned what it calls Juche (self-reliance) into a national religion, even to the point of letting 2 million of its own people die of famine—and the rest live in dire poverty—rather than open its borders to the world.
Fred Kaplan, Slate's "War Stories" columnist and a senior Schwartz fellow at the New America Foundation, is writing a book on the group of soldier-scholars who changed American military strategy. His latest book, 1959: The Year Everything Changed, is in paperback. He can be reached at war_stories@hotmail.com.


