Traveling New Mexico in search of swing voters.

A guide to the swing states.
Oct. 14 2008 6:29 PM

It's the Little Things

In the New Mexico presidential race, no town is too small to matter.

Read the rest of the Swingers series.

New Mexico. Click image to expand.
Traveling New Mexico in search of swing voters

STEINS, N.M.—There is no sign of political life in Steins, where I start my tour of New Mexico. In fact there is no sign of life at all: Steins is a ghost town. Even worse, it's a ghost town that has effectively been reghosted—it appears to have once been open to tourists but has since been fenced off from any possible trespassers.

That's about the only way a place can be ignored by the presidential campaign in New Mexico. My swing-state tour began in New Mexico's southwest corner, at the first exit off the interstate, and ended at its northeast edge. All along my route, I found that there was almost no place too small to matter. Barack Obama's operation has set up shop in towns like Hatch, Chama, and Aztec that outpopulate Steins by only a few thousand. It's not hard to see why. In 2000, Gore won the state by a margin of 366 votes. By comparison, 2004 was a landslide for Bush, who carried New Mexico's five electoral votes with an edge of 5,988 ballots. Campaigns in New Mexico have gotten used to thinking in small numbers.

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Southern New Mexico presents the ultimate challenge to a campaign that is counting on its ground game: It's got a lot of ground and not many people. New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District—which covers the southern half of the state—is bigger than Pennsylvania. It's very rural and very conservative. When I arrive in the town of Deming, another 80 miles down the road, the local Luna County Democratic Party chairman, Fred Williams, tells me that his county—unlike many others in southern New Mexico—has a substantial Democratic registration advantage. But when it comes to presidential and congressional races, many of those voters lean GOP. (The county, which is heavily agricultural and nearly 60 percent Hispanic, went to Bush by 824 votes in 2004.) This year, Williams thinks the challenge is winning over older Democratic women who helped carry the county for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary but tell him "they still are not completely comfortable supporting Obama."

SOMEWHERE ON INTERSTATE 10—With two competitive House races, an open Senate seat, and the state's electoral votes up for grabs, I've heard approximately 267 campaign ads on the radio before even making my first night's stop in Las Cruces. The prize for Most Obscure Reference goes to Rep. Steve Pearce, the Republican candidate for Senate who currently represents southern New Mexico in Congress. His ad attacks his opponent as "breathtakingly liberal" for failing to condemn a French city for naming a street after the murderer of an American police officer. (I'm confused, too, although I think the ad is referring to this.) NRA ads warning about the implications of an Obama administration for gun rights are nearly ubiquitous. And the Obama campaign seems to be fighting for the same turf, running a spot featuring the head of the American Hunters and Shooters Association vouching for the Illinois senator.

LAS CRUCES—As southern New Mexico goes, Las Cruces is about as liberal as it gets. It's home to New Mexico State University, as well as a growing community of East Coast transplants who have moved here for the weather. But for a good example of New Mexico's ideological diversity, consider this: Santa Fe, in the northern part of the state, was one of the first cities in the country to pass a living-wage ordinance. Las Cruces, on the other hand, doesn't yet have curbside recycling. I learn this while attending a neighborhood meeting hosted by the Las Cruces mayor when Phil Washburn asks him when the city will finally get its act together and start collecting his bottles and cans.

Washburn—who works for the university's Campus Crusade for Christ—is a veteran swing-state voter. In 2004, when he was living in Ohio, he voted for Bush. But he's not so sure this time around. "McCain is somewhat old politics, and we definitely need a change," Washburn says as he holds his baby daughter. "Obama is a great orator. … But I don't want to be told what I want to hear. I want to hear where you are going to take the country."

ALBUQUERQUE—When I pass through town in late September, I find that many New Mexican political leaders are a little hesitant to talk to an out-of-town reporter. The reason: Nobody wants to become the next Fernando C. de Baca.

When I arrived in New Mexico, C. de Baca was still chairman of the Republican Party in Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and accounts for a little less than a third of the state's population. By the time I left Albuquerque, he had resigned. His downfall was the result of an interview he had given earlier that month to a BBC reporter doing his own tour of the state. "The truth is that Hispanics came here as conquerors," he said. "African-Americans came here as slaves. … Hispanics consider themselves above blacks. They won't vote for a black president."

C. de Baca's remarks are eventually condemned by just about everyone in the state's political establishment, and after a week of controversy, he finally resigns. But the one-time chairman isn't the first person to question how New Mexico's unique demographic composition will affect the state's political fortunes. (Indeed, Republicans ask where the outrage was when a Clinton-supporting state senator said in the spring she didn't know a single Hispanic over 50 who would vote for Obama.) State Sen. Rod Adair, a Republican from Roswell who is a demographer in his day job, points out that New Mexico is one of the most unusual states in the nation "demographically" (he should know), meaning its makeup diverges the most from the U.S. population as a whole. (Hawaii is probably the only state any weirder.) About 44 percent of its population—and 37 percent of the eligible voters—are Hispanic, and almost 10 percent are Native American.

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