Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
March 4 2003 1:44 PM

Soviet Block

The odds of war.

33_030205_saddameter_95

Chance of Invasion
Today: 96 percent

Turkish stock market plummets and U.S. threatens to withdraw aid unless Turkish parliament reconsiders its vote against admitting U.S. troops. Turkish leader holds out possibility of revote "in the coming days." Russian foreign minister says of U.N. war vote, 1) "Russia will not abstain" or "support any decision that would directly or indirectly lead to a war," and 2) "If the situation so demands, Russia will of course use its right of veto." Iraq destroys  three more missiles, five engines, and a launcher. Latest timetable: U.S. and allies will make war decision around March 14 with or without U.N. support.

22_saddameter_graph

Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.

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