Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.
Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.
The odds of war in Iraq.
Feb. 24 2003 2:15 PM

Say Uncle

The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion
Today: 95 percent

Turkish Cabinet approves U.S. troop deployments. Blix rules out negotiations on March 1 deadline for beginning destruction of Al-Samoud missiles. Iraq says, "We will come up with a decision quite soon." New U.S.-U.K. resolution says Iraq has failed to seize final disarmament opportunity offered in Security Council Resolution 1441. The new resolution has no explicit deadline. French alternative plan will suggest deadlines for compliance. Diplomats complain U.S. is twisting arms to get council majority. Latest score card: Pakistan will abstain, forcing U.S. to pick up all three African members, plus Chile and Mexico, both of which plan to abstain if permanent council members remain split.


Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.