Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Feb. 19 2003 2:59 PM

Chicken Jacques

The odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 92 percent

Turkey  gets NATO aid but bars U.S. troops until Bush beefs up "compensation" offer. Fleischer's reply: 1) Take it or leave it. 2) We can win without you. Powell in French interview: "Some nations are  afraid of stepping up to the responsibility of imposing the will of the international community." Berlusconi, like Blair,  stands by Bush despite domestic protests. Italian lawmakers vote to support him. "Shipping industry sources" tell London's Independent three ships being tracked by U.S. and Britain may be carrying Iraqi WMD. Latest C.W.: U.S. will postpone Security Council resolution until Blix's end-of-February report, hoping it'll be  negative enough to increase support for war.

Yesterday: 92 percent

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Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.