Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 24 2003 6:35 PM

Weapons Grade

The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion
Today: 69 percent

The French and Germans still oppose war. Bush and Co. still say Saddam's jig is almost up, though a senior U.S. official says extending U.N. inspections remains a possibility. The administration amps up efforts to win support for the war; it's drafting its own assessment of Iraq's weapons capabilities, based on U.S. intelligence gathered primarily from Iraqi defectors. Paul Wolfowitz compares Iraq's disarmament with South Africa's and says Iraq's actions don't look like "real disarmament." Blix also says Iraq should do more to follow South Africa's example and again criticizes the nation's restrictions on the U.N.'s use of U-2 spy planes. But an IAEA spokesman says that the agency's Monday report will give Iraq "quite satisfactory" grades: "[T]heir report card will be a 'B.' " Peace spin: A positive report from Blix will convince the U.S. to give inspectors more time. War spin: When it comes to Iraq, the Bush administration won't settle for less than an "A."



Julia Turner is the editor in chief of Slate and a regular on Slate's Culture Gabfest podcast.



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