Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 6 2003 12:28 PM

Watching the Detectives

The odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 69 percent

Saddam accuses inspectors of "making lists of Iraqi scientists, [asking] questions that carry hidden agendas, giving special attention to military camps … most of which constitute purely intelligence work." Turkish foreign minister says Turkey probably won't accept many U.S. troops. New Security Council member Pakistan indicates sympathy with U.S.; Council diplomat says Germans "are indicating that they will not be an obstacle to military action if the facts … show that Saddam is cheating." New York Times reports U.S. still "has yet to fully share what intelligence it has with the inspectors." U.S. hints at amnesty for Iraqi officials who help topple Saddam. Buildup continues, but British officials estimate odds of war have fallen from 60-40 to 40-60. War spin: Saddam is cracking under the pressure. Peace spin: Not enough to stop cooperating.

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Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right. Follow him on Twitter.