Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 31 2003 3:47 PM

Turkey Based

The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion

Today: 85 percent

Blix disputes U.S. claims that 1) inspectors caught Iraq hiding forbidden materials; 2) Iraq sent scientists out of the country to avoid interviews; and 3) Iraqi spies posed as scientists. But he adds, "I haven't pleaded for continuing inspections because I haven't seen a change of attitude on the part of Iraq." Iraq offers to allow U-2 overflights demanded by Blix, but only if U.S. stops patrolling no-fly zones during the flights. Turkey's military-civilian council urges its government to seek approval to base U.S. troops in Turkey. Turkish TV reports that if Turkey refuses to host U.S. troops, U.S. will airlift them to Kurdish territory in northern Iraq. U.S. official says of Feb. 5 intelligence presentation to Security Council, "We don't have a smoking gun, and Powell's not coming with it." Iraq warns Annan U.S. might plant fake evidence of WMD in Iraq. U.S. planes drop more leaflets to foment Iraqi revolt.

Yesterday: 85 percent


Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.



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