Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 21 2003 5:16 PM

The French Resistance

The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion
Today: 68 percent

Powell urges Security Council members to make a decision on war when Blix's report comes in next week. France says no way. Foreign minister Dominique de Villepin warns that France would consider using its veto power if the U.S. pushes the Security Council for a hasty vote on war. Also,  France promises to mobilize the EU against precipitate military action in Iraq when European foreign ministers meet in Brussels on Monday. Rumsfeld and Bush appear undeterred.  Rumsfeld asserts that "it will not take months" to decide if Saddam is cooperating. Bush asks, "How much time do we need to see clearly that he's not disarming?" and repeats his pledge to lead a "coalition of willing nations." Meanwhile, Britain  mobilizes 26,000 troops, and  Turkey will let the U.S. base some forces there, so Bush may be able to count them in. Peace spin: France has committed to preventing imminent war with renewed vigor. War spin: Bush administration views France with renewed indifference.


Julia Turner is the editor in chief of Slate and a regular on Slate's Culture Gabfest podcast.

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