Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 23 2003 5:34 PM

Rice Paper

The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion
Today: 70 percent

Bush & Co. go public with their case against Iraq. How? Condi's New York Times op-ed argues: Iraq is not disarming, and its declaration is a "12,200-page lie" that "constitutes a material breach of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1441." Administration officials say that next week they plan to demand that skeptics like France and Germany agree that Iraq is out of line. "Our goal is to rub their nose in reality," one said, so "they have to respond to the obvious facts and then explain why they don't want to act on them." Putin tells Bush that no decisions should be made until Blix's report comes in; now Russia, China, and France oppose a hasty call on war. But Powell reiterates that the U.S. is willing to fight without the U.N. Iraqi officials return to familiar complaints about unnecessary searches. Peace spin: Europe calls for patience; its opposition to war remains firm. War spin: Iraqi resistance could undercut calls for patience; U.S. opposition to European opposition may be firmer.



Julia Turner is the editor in chief of Slate and a regular on Slate's Culture Gabfest podcast.


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