Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 17 2003 5:32 PM

Registered Guess

The odds of war.

Chance of Invasion
Today: 64 percent

Disagreement on whether the warheads found yesterday were registered in Iraq's 12,000-page declaration of its biological and chemical weapons. Fleischer says the warheads were not registered. Blix says he's not yet sure. The New York Times says Iraqis say the warheads were registered. The Washington Post says the Iraqis say the warheads were "too insignificant to put in its declaration." Meanwhile, Fleischer says Iraqis say they "forgot" to list the warheads and calls the find "troubling and serious" but stops short of calling the failure to list these warheads a "material breach" of U.N. sanctions. The Security Council opposes the U.S. proposal to block Blix's proposed March report. U.N. Ambassador Negroponte says the U.S. is committed to Security Council unity. Blix and ElBaradei plan to ask the U.N. to give inspectors even more time, and they have Chirac's support. Peace spin: Bushies are backing off due to Security Council opposition. War spin: Bushies are backing off because inspectors seem closer to finding a smoking gun.

22_saddameter_graph

Julia Turner is the editor in chief of Slate and a regular on Slate's Culture Gabfest podcast.

TODAY IN SLATE

Politics

Don’t Worry, Obama Isn’t Sending U.S. Troops to Fight ISIS

But the next president might. 

The Extraordinary Amicus Brief That Attempts to Explain the Wu-Tang Clan to the Supreme Court Justices

Amazon Is Officially a Gadget Company. Here Are Its Six New Devices.

The Human Need to Find Connections in Everything

It’s the source of creativity and delusions. It can harm us more than it helps us.

How Much Should You Loathe NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell?

Here are the facts.

Altered State

The Plight of the Pre-Legalization Marijuana Offender

What should happen to weed users and dealers busted before the stuff was legal?

Surprise! The Women Hired to Fix the NFL Think the NFL Is Just Great.

You Shouldn’t Spank Anyone but Your Consensual Sex Partner

Moneybox
Sept. 17 2014 5:10 PM The Most Awkward Scenario in Which a Man Can Hold a Door for a Woman
  News & Politics
Weigel
Sept. 18 2014 8:58 AM Does this Colorado Poll Show Latino Voters Bailing on the 2014 Election?
  Business
Business Insider
Sept. 17 2014 1:36 PM Nate Silver Versus Princeton Professor: Who Has the Right Models?
  Life
Food
Sept. 18 2014 9:34 AM How to Order Chinese Food First, stop thinking of it as “Chinese food.”
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 17 2014 6:14 PM Today in Gender Gaps: Biking
  Slate Plus
Slate Fare
Sept. 17 2014 9:37 AM Is Slate Too Liberal?  A members-only open thread.
  Arts
Television
Sept. 18 2014 8:53 AM The Other Huxtable Effect Thirty years ago, The Cosby Show gave us one of TV’s great feminists.
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 17 2014 9:00 PM Amazon Is Now a Gadget Company
  Health & Science
Bad Astronomy
Sept. 18 2014 7:30 AM Red and Green Ghosts Haunt the Stormy Night
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 17 2014 3:51 PM NFL Jerk Watch: Roger Goodell How much should you loathe the pro football commissioner?