Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 30 2003 3:47 PM

Jacques' Trap

The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion

Today: 85 percent

Eleven of 15 Security Council members say inspectors deserve more time. To pass a war resolution, U.S. must switch five votes and persuade France, Russia, and China not to veto it. Separately, eight European leaders (not France or Germany) agree with Bush that Saddam's "pattern of deception, denial and non-compliance with UN Security Council resolutions is continuing." Jordan denies reports that it has privately agreed to let U.S. use its territory and airspace for war. Iraqi scientists' record of refusing private interviews with inspectors rises to 15-0. Iraq invites Blix and ElBaradei for talks on "boosting cooperation." New Iraqi spin on Jan. 27 Blix report: "What remains are not programs but questions about past programs." Powell says if Saddam "were to leave the country and take some of his family members with him and others in the leading elite … we would, I am sure, try to help find a place for them to go." War spin: Odds of Saddam staying in power are falling. Peace spin: Odds of coup or exile are rising.

Yesterday: 84 percent


Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.



Crying Rape

False rape accusations exist, and they are a serious problem.

Scotland Is Just the Beginning. Expect More Political Earthquakes in Europe.

I Bought the Huge iPhone. I’m Already Thinking of Returning It.

The Music Industry Is Ignoring Some of the Best Black Women Singing R&B

How Will You Carry Around Your Huge New iPhone? Apple Pants!

Medical Examiner

The Most Terrifying Thing About Ebola 

The disease threatens humanity by preying on humanity.


The Other Huxtable Effect

Thirty years ago, The Cosby Show gave us one of TV’s great feminists.

Lifetime Didn’t Find the Steubenville Rape Case Dramatic Enough. So They Added a Little Self-Immolation.

No, New York Times, Shonda Rhimes Is Not an “Angry Black Woman” 

Brow Beat
Sept. 19 2014 1:39 PM Shonda Rhimes Is Not an “Angry Black Woman,” New York Times. Neither Are Her Characters.
Sept. 19 2014 1:11 PM An Up-Close Look at the U.S.–Mexico Border
  News & Politics
Sept. 19 2014 9:15 PM Chris Christie, Better Than Ever
Sept. 19 2014 6:35 PM Pabst Blue Ribbon is Being Sold to the Russians, Was So Over Anyway
Inside Higher Ed
Sept. 19 2014 1:34 PM Empty Seats, Fewer Donors? College football isn’t attracting the audience it used to.
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 19 2014 4:58 PM Steubenville Gets the Lifetime Treatment (And a Cheerleader Erupts Into Flames)
  Slate Plus
Slate Picks
Sept. 19 2014 12:00 PM What Happened at Slate This Week? The Slatest editor tells us to read well-informed skepticism, media criticism, and more.
Brow Beat
Sept. 19 2014 4:48 PM You Should Be Listening to Sbtrkt
Future Tense
Sept. 19 2014 6:31 PM The One Big Problem With the Enormous New iPhone
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Sept. 19 2014 5:09 PM Did America Get Fat by Drinking Diet Soda?   A high-profile study points the finger at artificial sweeteners.
Sports Nut
Sept. 18 2014 11:42 AM Grandmaster Clash One of the most amazing feats in chess history just happened, and no one noticed.