Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 30 2003 3:47 PM

Jacques' Trap

The odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion

Today: 85 percent

Eleven of 15 Security Council members say inspectors deserve more time. To pass a war resolution, U.S. must switch five votes and persuade France, Russia, and China not to veto it. Separately, eight European leaders (not France or Germany) agree with Bush that Saddam's "pattern of deception, denial and non-compliance with UN Security Council resolutions is continuing." Jordan denies reports that it has privately agreed to let U.S. use its territory and airspace for war. Iraqi scientists' record of refusing private interviews with inspectors rises to 15-0. Iraq invites Blix and ElBaradei for talks on "boosting cooperation." New Iraqi spin on Jan. 27 Blix report: "What remains are not programs but questions about past programs." Powell says if Saddam "were to leave the country and take some of his family members with him and others in the leading elite … we would, I am sure, try to help find a place for them to go." War spin: Odds of Saddam staying in power are falling. Peace spin: Odds of coup or exile are rising.

Yesterday: 84 percent

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Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right. Follow him on Twitter.