Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 27 2003 5:27 PM


The odds of war.


Chance of Invasion
Today: 71 percent

The inspectors' report  is in.  Blix commends Iraq for giving inspectors access to all key sites, but says Iraq has failed to answer substantive questions about weapons programs: "Iraq appears not to have come to a genuine acceptance, not even today, of the disarmament which was demanded of it." He says his teams are ready to continue inspections, but he makes no explicit request for more time. ElBaradei, however, does ask the U.N. to let inspections continue.  Negroponte says that nothing in the report "gives us any hope that Iraq will disarm" voluntarily. At Davos,  Powell argues that if Saddam won't disarm Iraq, the world must disarm Saddam. Fleischer says that Iraq "remains a very grave threat," but that "nobody is more reluctant to go to war than Bush."  Bush plans to make his case against Iraq in his State of the Union address Tuesday, but will not include an ultimatum or a timetable. War spin: Report or no report, Bush & Co. are still ready to attack Iraq with a coalition of the willing. Peace spin: They may hold off in hopes of broadening that coalition.



Julia Turner is the editor in chief of Slate and a regular on Slate’s Culture Gabfest podcast.

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