Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Jan. 15 2003 5:47 PM

Annan and On

The odds of war.

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Chance of Invasion
Today: 61 percent

Fleischer says Saddam should "leave Iraq and go on trial." Rumsfeld says "No one wants war." But in an unannounced meeting, Condi Rice urges Blixnot to postpone a complete report on inspections until March. Also to "exercise his authority to take Iraqi scientists out of the country for confidential interviews" (Blix has plans to interview scientists in Iraq next week). The Pentagon asks Iraqi exiles to gather at a U.S. military facility so it can prep them to aid in an Iraq invasion as translators and guides. Saddam lets U.N. inspectors conduct a surprise examination of one of his palaces. Annan says he's still "optimistic" that war can be averted. Russian and Egyptian envoys will meet with Iraqi officials this week. War spin: Bushies are growing impatient with plodding inspections. Peace spin: Everyone else is inclined to be patient with plodding inspections.

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Julia Turner is Slate's deputy editor and a regular on Slate's Culture Gabfest podcast. Follow her on Twitter.