Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Dec. 11 2002 3:33 PM

Welcome Back, Qatar

The odds of war.

79_021209_saddameter

Chance of Invasion
Today: 62 percent

U.S.officials concede  that 1) inspectors are unlikely to find incriminating evidence in the next four months and 2) persuading Iraqi scientists to talk will be much harder than expected. Blix asks Security Council members for preliminary assessments of Iraq's WMD report by Dec. 13. Anti-war protests in the U.S. are widespread but not heavily attended. U.S. courts Turkey but gets no explicit commitments and may prove unable to deliver the European Union membership Turkey wants. Qatar agrees to upgrade bases, but Rumsfeld says it's irrelevant to current Iraq situation. In newly released Dec. 5 interview, Powell claims "many nations" have said they're "prepared to go with" U.S. against Iraq, even without Security Council approval. Peace spin: U.S. hasn't denounced Iraq's report. War spin: U.S. is feigning open-mindedness.