Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Dec. 5 2002 4:56 PM

Tiptoe Through the Blix

The odds of war.

82_021205_saddameter

Chance of Invasion Today: 53 percent

Fleischer says U.S. will give inspectors proof that Iraq has weapons forbidden by U.N. Saddam tells Iraqis to cooperate with inspectors to deprive U.S. of excuses for war. Iraqi Foreign Ministry says inspectors' behavior will show whether U.S. controls them. Pentagon prepares to call up reservists. Inspector says "you bet there are differences" between inspectors' and Bush's assessments of inspection progress. War spin: Iraqis will deny having any forbidden weapons, and Bush will prove they lied. Peace spin: Iraqis will disguise their weapons programs as "dual use" technology, and U.N. will let them weasel out.