Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Dec. 3 2002 3:57 PM

Storming the Palace

The odds of war.

33_021119_saddameter

Chance of Invasion
Today: 56 percent

U.S. and U.N. comments increasingly diverge. 1) Iraq allows first surprise inspection of its "presidential sites." Annan calls it a "good indication that the Iraqis are cooperating," despite Bush's statement Monday that early signs were "not encouraging." 2) Blix says there could be "good explanations" for Monday's discovery that items previously tagged by inspectors are missing. 3) White House sets up Catch-22: Saddam is a scofflaw if he admits he has forbidden weapons, and he's a scofflaw if he denies it. War spin: Inspectors are getting tough to show Iraq the U.S. is serious. Peace spin: Inspectors are acting tough to show the U.S. Iraq is compliant.