Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Dec. 19 2002 5:43 PM

Into the Breach

The odds of war.

13_021219_saddameter

Chance of Invasion
Today: 72 percent

Blix says omissions and inconsistencies in Iraq's Dec. 7 report need to be explained. He lists known weapons whose fate the report doesn't address, despite his prior warning that Iraq must account for them. ElBaradei says inspectors "have not gotten what we need in terms of additional evidence." U.N. official says the empty report means Saddam blew off the warning. Powell declares Iraq in "material breach" of U.N. cooperate-or-else resolution. Next step: To trigger U.N. approval for war, Iraq must fail to cooperate on the ground. Powell says U.S. will push for interviews with Iraqi scientists outside Iraq. Saddam's science adviser suggests this would violate international law. Peace spin: If Security Council members don't share Bush's judgment, they won't certify a material breach. War spin: If Bush doesn't like their judgment, he'll go to war without them.

Yesterday: 66 percent

22_saddameter_graph

Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.

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