Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Dec. 6 2002 5:46 PM

Hussein Asylum

The odds of war.

1_123125_2074143_2074146_2074738_021206_saddameter

Chance of Invasion Today: 51 percent

Suspicions grow that U.S. is exaggerating its evidence against Iraq. Iraq says the report it files Saturday on its weapons programs will contain "new elements." Blix indicates it may run more than 10,000 pages, bogging down inspectors. U.S. tries to shift inspectors' focus to out-of-country interviews of Iraqi scientists, possibly without the scientists' permission, on the theory that inspectors won't know where to look unless scientists tell them. War spin: Defectors, not inspectors, have always been the best way to find Saddam's weapons. Peace spin: Great, now the U.S. is for kidnapping. U.N. will never go for it.