Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

Are we going to war? Slate updates the odds.

The odds of war in Iraq.
Nov. 20 2002 7:25 PM

The Saddameter

The odds of war.

33_021119_saddameter

Chance of Invasion Today: 57 percent

More exchanges of fire in the no-fly zones. American soldiers rehearse assault tactics in Kuwait. U.S. asks allies to chip in troops or weapons in case of war, but American and British officials describe their activity as building a "credible threat." Hans Blix insists the Iraqis will cooperate, but Bush indicates the key will be Iraq's Dec. 8 declaration of the extent of its weapons of mass destruction: "Should [Saddam] again deny that this arsenal exists, he will have entered his final stage with a lie ... [which] will invite the severest of consequences."

Yesterday: 56 percent