Pundit Central

Assessing Assad

Issue 1 is the death of Syrian leader Hafez Assad. Issue 2 is the antitrust decision against Microsoft. Issue 3 is the New Jersey Democratic Senate primary.

Most pundits think that Assad’s ophthalmologist son is more inclined to sign a peace treaty with Israel than the authoritarian father was. Henry Kissinger (CNN’s Late Edition  and CBS’s Face the Nation), who negotiated with Assad in the ‘70s, believes that Syria is too far along the road to peace to turn back. Asked why President Clinton will not attend Assad’s funeral, Clinton adviser John Podesta (LE) dodges the question. But Kissinger says what Podesta cannot say: Clinton’s attendance might 1) anger Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who did not get along with Assad and who is close to making a deal with Israel, and 2) show undue anxiety about the Syrian-Israeli peace process, which would give Syria a negotiating advantage. However, several pundits–including Kissinger, Thomas Friedman (FTN), and Derek McGinty (ABC’s This Week)–doubt that Assad’s son is Machiavellian enough to wield power in the long run.

The commentariat is split on the Microsoft verdict. Many–such as Michael Barone ( The McLaughlin Group), Robert Novak (CNN’s Capital Gang), and George F. Will (TW)–doubt that a breakup will benefit consumers. The government’s supporters, like Margaret Carlson (CG), argue that Microsoft has stifled more innovation than it has created. Eleanor Clift (TMG) and Paul Gigot (PBS’s NewsHour With Jim Lehrer) warn that libertarian Silicon Valley better get used to government intervention–privacy protection and taxation are just around the corner. Tony Blankley (TMG) thinks a onetime breakup is superior to the government’s fallback position: ongoing government regulation. Mark Shields (CG) points out that the breakup of AT&T led to more innovation, not less, but John Kasich (CG) and Will note that the AT&T split was accompanied by deregulation, not more regulation. Barone warns that Al Gore may now lose Washington state to George W. Bush, but most talking heads think neither candidate has a clear enought position on the verdict to benefit politically.

Some pundits, like Mark Shields (CG), think that New Jersey millionaire Jon Corzine bought the Democratic Senate nomination when he spent $35 million in the primary. But most talking heads attribute Corzine’s victory to voter hostility at his competitor, former Gov. Jim Florio. Several pundits note that former self-financed candidates Michael Huffington and Al Checchi failed to buy their respective elections in California, and Eleanor Clift, Al Hunt, and Tucker Carlson (LE) point out that it’s better to buy an election than be bought by special interests.

Miscellany: Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., vice presidential wannabe, appears on Fox News Sunday. To Pundit Central, he looks like an ideal choice for No. 2: He’s handsome in a boy-next-door sort of way. He’s not charismatic enough to steal Gore’s limelight, but he’s affable and has a sense of humor. And he’s a senator from, and former governor of, a swing state. Demerit: He’s an incumbent Democrat in a hotly contested congressional-election year.

Al 2000, Version 6.0

Some pundits discuss the new, positive-message Al Gore. While Susan Page (LE) and Mark Shields (NH) think that being positive helps Gore appear more personable and human, most pundits are skeptical of any new incarnations. Nevertheless, John McLaughlin helpfully lists the six Al Gores thus far:

1. Average Joe Al
2. Underdog Al
3. Alpha Al
4. Crusading Reformer Al
5. Negative Al
6. Sunny Al

Microsoft Diplomacy

BOB SCHIEFFER (FTN): Do you think that there’s any way this could be settled out of court?

RICK RULE (MICRORSOFT ADVISER):  Well, you know, from my perspective, I know both sides have some interest [in settling]. …  I know Microsoft has an interest. But from my perspective, what the government has to do is actually listen and try to understand the consequences of the things they’re proposing. I don’t think they understand the technology well enough. That’s understandable. They’re lawyers.

Last Words

“Bob, we’re arguing about the legal and economic interconnections between the Explorer browser and the Windows operating system, and you and I can’t even work our cell phones. … At the risk of exposing our gig [as pundits], I don’t understand a lot of this stuff.”

–Al Hunt (CG)

“I’ll make a prediction: If the breakup occurs, the shareholders of Microsoft will be far wealthier 10 years from now than they are today.”

–Al Hunt, 22 seconds later