Issue number one is the New York senate race-cum-soap opera. Issue number two is gun control and the Million Mom March. Issue number three is this week’s Bush-McCain ‘like-in’ and the campaign in general.
Will he or won’t he? Most of the commentariat are sure that Giuliani is finished, but those who disagree do so vehemently. Mark Shields (The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer) says the campaign is “toast,” while John McLaughlin (The McLaughlin Group) says a Giuliani bid is a “metaphysical certitude,” and both Brit Hume and Juan Williams (Fox News Sunday) think he’ll run. Paradoxically, most pundits think that if the events of the last few weeks don’t blow Giuliani’s candidacy apart, they’ll have little effect on it at all–sympathy for Giuliani’s illness and appreciation of his candor might well smooth over the outrage caused by his wife’s angered press conference. Tucker Carlson (CNN’s Late Edition) is the only pundit to object to a kinder, gentler Giuliani, noting that “some of us liked Rudy a lot because we never saw his human side.”
If Giuliani does bow out, everyone agrees that GOP brass will bring pressure on New York Governor George Pataki to run, although he has already stated that he’s not interested. Gloria Borger ( Washington Week in Review) calls Pataki “Hillary Clinton’s nightmare,” and several pundits argue that Pataki’s presidential aspirations and dislike for Giuliani could coax him into the race. After Pataki, most conservative commentators tap Rick Lazio, a republican representative from Long Island, as Giuliani’s likely successor. Though he’s not a household name, Lazio’s suburban/Catholic family-man image could provide an anodyne to the Giuliani media circus and deliver upstate voters, who are traditionally skeptical of Manhattan-based candidates. Peter King (R.-NY) announces on NBC’s Meet the Press that he would also seek the nomination if the mayor dropped out, and a few pundits mention Ted Forstmann, a wealthy Manhattan financier, as a possible candidate. Most pundits agree that any non-Rudy candidate could mean bad news for Hillary, as the mayor’s volatile temperament was one of the campaign’s hottest “issues.”
For the most part, the pundits leave pontificating on the Million Mom March to the interested parties–march organizer Donna Dees-Thomases and National Rifle Association executive vice president Wayne LaPierre. Dees-Thomases emphasizes the Moms’ hopes to turn the march into a lasting grass-roots gun control lobby. LaPierre, banking on the belief that one Sunday politics show is all that anyone in their right mind can stomach, peddles the same NRA platform (more gun education and enforcement of existing laws) almost word for word on Meet the Press, Fox News Sunday, and CNN Late Edition. No one thinks the march will have any immediate legislative effects, since no pending legislation contains the gun licensing and registration measures that the moms endorse. Steve Roberts (LE) argues that the Dems aren’t pushing for compromised legislation now because they want to exploit the issue in the election. A number of conservative pundits decry the march as a “stalking horse” of the Clinton/Gore gun control agenda. Others argue that gun control is no longer the Democratic “slam dunk” that it used to be: The NRA’s call for increased enforcement of existing laws has won popular support, and many polls show Bush picked as the candidate best equipped to handle gun control.
To varying degrees, all agree that McCain’s sextuple Bush endorsements were good for Bush, good for McCain, and bad for Gore. Though the endorsement does not automatically deliver the four-million-strong “McCain constituency,” widely replayed images of Bush and McCain making nice should deliver a PR boost. As Tucker Carlson (LE) observes, “for a straight talker, McCain is pretty good at pretending to like someone.” McCain, meanwhile, shows Republicans that he wants to reconcile, while winkingly reassuring his supporters that he’s not doing it out of affinity for the Bush platform, paving the way for another run in 2004. No one doubts that McCain has no interest in a V.P. slot–Tucker Carlson (LE) vows that “if he accepted the vice presidential nomination, I’ll move to Canada.”
Blame Cuba!
The opinion mafia can’t offer any solid reasons for Gore’s continued slipping in the polls. Tainting an otherwise Elián-free weekend, Michael Duffy (WWIR) muses that backlash from Gore’s González stance might be to blame. Duffy also offered a simpler explanation for Gore’s problems: “People don’t seem to like him.”
Holier Than Who?
The pundits use the death of Archbishop John O’Connor to sound the death knell for the Catholic voter. Lawrence O’Donnell (McLaughlin) said that Catholics were “no longer an interesting polling group” as they no longer differ much from the population as a whole, and Peter King (R.-New York) remarked that they have “lost their moral edge.”
Vast Left-Wing Conspiracy
People who go up against the Clintons—bad things happen to them.–Bob Novak on the possible causes of Giuliani’s recent woes.
Do You Even Have To Ask?
Will it be tasteful, or will she just be ‘nekkid,’ as we used to say in Texas?–Bob Schieffer (Face the Nation) on the possibility of a Paula Jones spread in Penthouse
The Last Word
Only on the McLaughlin Group can a cancer diagnosis, an extramarital affair, an ongoing relationship and a scornful wife turn somehow into an asset.– Eleanor Clift (MG) on Rudy Giuliani’s senatorial prospects
