Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance.

Arkansas
Kerry   45
Bush    54
Nader    1

Missouri
Kerry   47
Bush    52

New York
Kerry   62
Bush    36
Nader    2

Nevada
Kerry    49
Bush     48
Nader     1

New Jersey
Kerry    54
Bush     44
Nader     1

West Virginia
Kerry    45
Bush     54
Nader     1

Why is Slaterunning these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 4:20 p.m. PT

Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It's a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.

Why is Slaterunning these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 3:16 p.m. PT

Early Exit: A sqeaker: The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning dexit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Florida
Kerry  50
Bush   49