Updated Late Afternoon Numbers
Mucho flattering to Kerry; plus Nader makes an appearance.
Why is Slaterunning these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 4:20 p.m. PT
Late Afternoon Exit Polls: It's a tight squeeze: In the national exit poll, Kerry leads Bush 51-48. In Wisconsin he's up by three, and in Ohio and Florida he leads by one.
Why is Slaterunning these numbers? See this morning's piece. ... 3:16 p.m. PT
Early Exit: A sqeaker: The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes from a variety of sources. In some states the sources disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate leads, but never about which candidate is out in front. Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning dexit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With those provisos and the understanding that the early numbers are predictive of nothing without their accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard: