The Slate Poll: Where we ask you to predict the future.

Slate readers predict the future.
July 2 2010 12:49 PM

The Slate Poll

Where we ask readers to predict the future.

Welcome to Slate's polling feature, in which we ask you to give us your predictions about stuff in the news. The idea here, elucidated in James Surowiecki's  The Wisdom of Crowds and elsewhere, is that when it comes to forecasting the future, collective intelligence is often more accurate than expert opinion. See our complete polling archives below.


How Many Hurricanes?
The National Hurricane Center's updated prediction—issued just this month—is for a 90 percent chance of an "
above-normal season," with seven to 11 hurricanes. How many hurricanes will make landfall on the continental United States this season?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.

How much is a share of GM worth?
When GM returns to the stock exchange, you—meaning a private investor—will be able to purchase shares in GM. How much will a share of GM's stock will be worth at the end of its first day back?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.


Who Will Win the World Cup? Round 2.
Before the World Cup began, we asked you to choose which team would win it all. to According
the 12,064 Slate readers who voted, the most likely winner was Spain, followed by Brazil. Now that we're down to the quarterfinals, we're now giving everyone a do-over. The eight teams to choose from are actually the eight teams left.

This poll is closed.See reader predictions  here.


How Many Votes Will Elena Kagan get?
Elena Kagan's confirmation hearings before the Senate judiciary committee are under way. With 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and two Independents in the Senate, how many votes will Kagan get?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions  here.

Tony Hayward: the face of the BP oil spill.

When will Tony Hayward lose his job?
When you're in charge of the corporation responsible for the largest oil spill in history, it's probably only a matter of time before you lose your job. Which leads to the question: When will Tony Hayward lose his?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.



Who Will Win the World Cup?
For our inaugural poll, we asked you to predict who would win the World Cup and offered you nine choices (the top seven-ranked teams, the United States, and "other." We'll update the list of choices as the tournament progresses, so check back before the quarterfinals for a new poll with the remaining teams.

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.



Forget Oculus Rift

This $25 cardboard box turns your phone into an incredibly fun virtual reality experience.

Republicans Want the Government to Listen to the American Public on Ebola. That’s a Horrible Idea.

The 2014 Kansas City Royals Show the Value of Building a Mediocre Baseball Team

The GOP Won’t Win Any Black Votes With Its New “Willie Horton” Ad

Sleater-Kinney Was Once America’s Best Rock Band

Can it be again?


Smash and Grab

Will competitive Senate contests in Kansas and South Dakota lead to more late-breaking races in future elections?

I Am 25. I Don’t Work at Facebook. My Doctors Want Me to Freeze My Eggs.

These Companies in Japan Are More Than 1,000 Years Old

  News & Politics
The World
Oct. 21 2014 11:40 AM The U.S. Has Spent $7 Billion Fighting the War on Drugs in Afghanistan. It Hasn’t Worked. 
Oct. 21 2014 1:12 PM The Global Millionaires Club Is Booming and Losing Its Exclusivity
Atlas Obscura
Oct. 21 2014 12:40 PM Asamkirche: The Rococo Church Where Death Hides in Plain Sight
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 21 2014 1:12 PM George Tiller's Murderer Threatens Another Abortion Doctor, Claims Right of Free Speech
  Slate Plus
Behind the Scenes
Oct. 21 2014 1:02 PM Where Are Slate Plus Members From? This Weird Cartogram Explains. A weird-looking cartogram of Slate Plus memberships by state.
Oct. 21 2014 12:05 PM Same-Sex Couples at Home With Themselves in 1980s America
Oct. 21 2014 10:43 AM Social Networking Didn’t Start at Harvard It really began at a girls’ reform school.
  Health & Science
Climate Desk
Oct. 21 2014 11:53 AM Taking Research for Granted Texas Republican Lamar Smith continues his crusade against independence in science.
Sports Nut
Oct. 20 2014 5:09 PM Keepaway, on Three. Ready—Break! On his record-breaking touchdown pass, Peyton Manning couldn’t even leave the celebration to chance.