The Slate Poll: Where we ask you to predict the future.

Slate readers predict the future.
July 2 2010 12:49 PM

The Slate Poll

Where we ask readers to predict the future.

Welcome to Slate's polling feature, in which we ask you to give us your predictions about stuff in the news. The idea here, elucidated in James Surowiecki's  The Wisdom of Crowds and elsewhere, is that when it comes to forecasting the future, collective intelligence is often more accurate than expert opinion. See our complete polling archives below.


How Many Hurricanes?
The National Hurricane Center's updated prediction—issued just this month—is for a 90 percent chance of an "
above-normal season," with seven to 11 hurricanes. How many hurricanes will make landfall on the continental United States this season?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.

How much is a share of GM worth?
When GM returns to the stock exchange, you—meaning a private investor—will be able to purchase shares in GM. How much will a share of GM's stock will be worth at the end of its first day back?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.


Who Will Win the World Cup? Round 2.
Before the World Cup began, we asked you to choose which team would win it all. to According
the 12,064 Slate readers who voted, the most likely winner was Spain, followed by Brazil. Now that we're down to the quarterfinals, we're now giving everyone a do-over. The eight teams to choose from are actually the eight teams left.

This poll is closed.See reader predictions  here.


How Many Votes Will Elena Kagan get?
Elena Kagan's confirmation hearings before the Senate judiciary committee are under way. With 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and two Independents in the Senate, how many votes will Kagan get?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions  here.

Tony Hayward: the face of the BP oil spill.

When will Tony Hayward lose his job?
When you're in charge of the corporation responsible for the largest oil spill in history, it's probably only a matter of time before you lose your job. Which leads to the question: When will Tony Hayward lose his?

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.



Who Will Win the World Cup?
For our inaugural poll, we asked you to predict who would win the World Cup and offered you nine choices (the top seven-ranked teams, the United States, and "other." We'll update the list of choices as the tournament progresses, so check back before the quarterfinals for a new poll with the remaining teams.

This poll is closed. See reader predictions here.



Smash and Grab

Will competitive Senate contests in Kansas and South Dakota lead to more late-breaking races in future elections?

I Am 25. I Don’t Work at Facebook. My Doctors Want Me to Freeze My Eggs.

The XX Factor
Oct. 20 2014 6:17 PM I Am 25. I Don’t Work at Facebook. My Doctors Want Me to Freeze My Eggs.

Republicans Want the Government to Listen to the American Public on Ebola. That’s a Horrible Idea.

The Most Ingenious Teaching Device Ever Invented

Tom Hanks Has a Short Story in the New Yorker. It’s Not Good.

Brow Beat

Marvel’s Civil War Is a Far-Right Paranoid Fantasy

It’s also a mess. Can the movies do better?

Watching Netflix in Bed. Hanging Bananas. Is There Anything These Hooks Can’t Solve?

The Procedural Rule That Could Prevent Gay Marriage From Reaching SCOTUS Again

  News & Politics
Oct. 20 2014 8:14 PM You Should Be Optimistic About Ebola Don’t panic. Here are all the signs that the U.S. is containing the disease.
Oct. 20 2014 7:23 PM Chipotle’s Magical Burrito Empire Keeps Growing, Might Be Slowing
Oct. 20 2014 3:16 PM The Catholic Church Is Changing, and Celibate Gays Are Leading the Way
  Double X
The XX Factor
Oct. 20 2014 6:17 PM I Am 25. I Don't Work at Facebook. My Doctors Want Me to Freeze My Eggs.
  Slate Plus
Tv Club
Oct. 20 2014 7:15 AM The Slate Doctor Who Podcast: Episode 9 A spoiler-filled discussion of "Flatline."
Brow Beat
Oct. 20 2014 9:13 PM The Smart, Talented, and Utterly Hilarious Leslie Jones Is SNL’s Newest Cast Member
Future Tense
Oct. 20 2014 4:59 PM Canadian Town Cancels Outdoor Halloween Because Polar Bears
  Health & Science
Medical Examiner
Oct. 20 2014 11:46 AM Is Anybody Watching My Do-Gooding? The difference between being a hero and being an altruist.
Sports Nut
Oct. 20 2014 5:09 PM Keepaway, on Three. Ready—Break! On his record-breaking touchdown pass, Peyton Manning couldn’t even leave the celebration to chance.