Obama immigration overhaul: The most likely scenarios (CHART).

The Most Likely Scenarios for Obama’s Immigration Overhaul, Charted

The Most Likely Scenarios for Obama’s Immigration Overhaul, Charted

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Nov. 20 2014 4:46 PM

Counting to 5 Million

The most likely scenarios for Obama’s overhaul of the U.S. immigration system, charted.

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Members of CASA de Maryland gather in front of the White House to celebrate the Obama Administration's announcement about deportation of illegal immigrants June 15, 2012, in Washington, D.C.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

For the mobile version of the chart, click the image below.

Estimated Eligible Population by Years of U.S. Residence (Thousands)

15+ years
10–15 years
5–10 years
0–5 years
Parents of U.S. citizens
1350
1130
740
230
... and of green card holders
1370
1190
790
270
... and of DACA eligible
1380
1200
830
270
Spouses of U.S. citizens
290
170
150
160
... and of green card holders
540
370
300
250
... and of DACA eligible
550
390
310
250
Parents or spouses of U.S. citizens
1460
1180
810
310
... and of green card holders
1570
1280
910
410
... and of DACA eligible
1580
1310
950
410
1 million
2 million
3 million
4 million

Interactive by Chris Kirk. Source: Migration Policy Institute.

President Obama is set to announce his long-promised immigration overhaul on Thursday night, an executive action that is expected to grant temporary legal status to as many as 5 million unauthorized immigrants. How the plan reaches that total, though, will depend on where Obama sets the bar for entry into each eligible group. Take parents of U.S. citizens, one of the largest demographics likely to be affected by the president’s plan. If Obama were to expand that group to include parents of U.S. citizens and green card holders, the number of eligible immigrants would grow by more than 1 million. Within that group, where Obama sets the threshold for how long someone needs to have lived the country—15 years? 10? Five?—will have a sweeping effect on how many people qualify. The chart below, based on data from the Migration Policy Institute, will give you an idea of just how many immigrants would be protected under a variety of combinations of the most likely criteria.

Alongside these scenarios, Obama is also considering relaxing the eligibility requirements for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which he created in 2012 to allow so-called Dreamers to apply for work permits and reprieves from deportation. Eliminating the program’s maximum age of 30, for example, would make 1.1 million additional people eligible for the program, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

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Chris Kirk is a web developer at New York magazine and Slate’s former interactives editor. Follow him on Twitter.