In the 2016 presidential campaign there will be lots of unexpected twists, but one thing is certain: A lot of us are going to find the process frustrating and shallow. That is the trajectory of American elections, and it is getting worse. The rise of Twitter and other instantaneous forms of communication have made the news cycle shorter and its content less meaningful. Rising partisanship means more flash-point moments to excite the devoted but leave everyone else exhausted.
Wait, maybe that’s too dark. We're still a few years away from 2016. Perhaps we can forestall the great national wilting. Peter Hamby, the talented CNN political reporter, made a useful contribution to that effort. As a fellow for Harvard's Shorenstein Center, Hamby wrote a detailed assessment of the campaign trail reporting for the 2012 presidential race. The nearly 100-page report is full of candid thoughts from reporters and strategists about the state of journalism on the campaign bus—that bubble of reporters who encircle the candidate every day. It captures a general empty feeling in the trade that something needs fixing.
Everyone falls short in Hamby’s tale. Journalists are overstretched, their bosses have short attention spans, candidates and their staff are in a permanent defensive crouch. Twitter is the central villain, accelerating the worst instincts in political insulation. In the case of the Romney campaign, the reaction to the rise of Twitter was to become even more withdrawn from the press.
Hamby doesn't just peddle despair though. At the end of his report, he suggests ways reporters can improve by moving away from the quick, calorie-free controversy of the moment and focusing on topics like the science of voter contact and the role of money and PACs. He also gives a shout-out to my colleague David Weigel, who doesn't fixate on the candidates as much as cover the political forces to which those candidates are reacting.
I'd like to suggest another beat that deserves some attention: whether the candidates running have the skills required for the office they're trying so hard to win.
This shouldn't be a novel idea, but the manager of the Clinique makeup counter at Macy's faces a more thorough examination of his skill set than our modern presidential candidate. The department store’s applicants are asked how they would handle dozens of tricky situations—colleagues with drinking problems, managing unruly customers, interpreting complicated company policy. All the questions are aimed at discovering whether the applicant has the attributes necessary for the job. (Also unlike campaigns, applicants are told to say what they believe and not what they think the company wants to hear.)
What would a presidential campaign look like if we tested candidates the same way?
The first thing we'd have to do is figure out what skills a president actually needs. (I made a stab at this question last year in a series of articles.) Voters are already groping in this direction. As Washington grows more partisan, voters try to divine a candidate’s effectiveness. Partisans want their purity dreams to become true while those in the middle want a president who can be effective in an environment where everyone has taken sides and won't budge.
But while voters may know what they want, they're fuzzy on the skill set required. Dan Balz's wonderful book about the 2012 campaign, Collision 2012, has a great vignette about this imprecise longing. President Obama's strategists held several focus groups with voters who had voted for Obama in 2008 but weren't going to do so again. In session after session, voters mentioned Lyndon Johnson. Why couldn't Obama be more like LBJ? It wasn't just the older voters who had lived through the Johnson years who asked. Younger voters did, too. They knew Obama faced a partisan Congress and thought the economy had been wrecked by his predecessor, but they still expected him to overcome those obstacles by using the tools of the office Johnson had commanded. "I've never had so many damned references to Lyndon Johnson in all my life," one campaign official told Balz. "All the bloody time. It became like an inside joke, how many times LBJ is going to come up?"