Political scientists favor Mitt Romney: 36 day ray of hope for Mitt Romney.
Why Today Was a Good Day for Mitt Romney
Who's winning, who's losing, and why.
Oct. 1 2012 4:21 PM

A Ray of Hope

Why today was a good day for Mitt Romney.


Every day until the election, Slate will offer up one reason to be optimistic for your candidate.

36 days to go:

Today’s Good News for Romney: Most polls may give Obama a lead in the upcoming presidential election, but political scientists aren’t ready to write off Mitt Romney. The Washington Post reports that 5 out of 13 experts voicing their opinions in the American Political Science Association’s PS: Political Science and Politics anticipate a Romney victory, with three more calling the race a near-toss-up. Unlike many presidential prognosticators, these academics are using historical models and economic trends as the basis of their analysis. A low GDP growth combined with high unemployment numbers, they believe, make Obama’s path to victory extremely narrow, if past elections are any indicator. Historically speaking, this should have been Romney’s race to lose—but according to these political scientists, it may still be his to win.

Mark Joseph Stern is a writer for Slate. He covers the law and LGBTQ issues.