Dickerson: Could Santorum Really Win Iowa?

Who's winning, who's losing, and why.
Jan. 1 2012 2:47 PM

Santorum’s Last Stand

Days before the Iowa caucus the senator shoots from the back of the pack.

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Rick Santorum campaigns in Iowa

Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images.

DES MOINES, IOWA—Rick Santorum is so hot right now, you'd think he was the cure to something. When pollsters for the Des Moines Register started contacting Republican voters on Tuesday, Santorum was at 10 percent. By Friday when the polling ended, he was at 22 percent, tied for the lead. If they'd kept calling Saturday, voters might have answered the phone singing the senator's name.

John Dickerson John Dickerson

John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of On Her Trail. Read his series on the presidency and on risk.

When the days were averaged out, which pollsters do to smooth out anomalies, the findings put Romney at 24 percent, Ron Paul at 22 percent, and Santorum at 15 percent. Given the trend, it's possible Santorum could win the caucus on Tuesday, which would be a perfect ending to a volatile race.

The question in Iowa right now is: Are Iowa Republicans finally waking to the wonders of the two-term senator, or is Santorum simply the latest candidate who is not Mitt Romney? Voters have been on a constant rummage through the bin, looking for an alternative. First they moved toward Bachmann, then Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Paul. Santorum is the last one left.

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The answer is probably a combination of the two. Santorum has put himself in a position to take advantage of the moment. He has worked the state harder than any other candidate, visiting all 99 counties and attending 250 events over the last six months. For months he was the Nowhere Man, toiling away and not budging in the polls.

Santorum is also a conviction candidate in a contest that has always been between voters who want an electable candidate (Romney) and voters who want a candidate who shares their conservative values (anyone but Romney). Santorum has talked about social issues in a way that appealed to evangelical voters who now appear to be rallying to him. "The reason I ran is 'cause I think people know there is more than just a little narrow issue called 'jobs,' " he told CBS's Jan Crawford.

Rick Santorum is either Mike Huckabee, who in 2008 won Iowa with 34 percent of the vote, or Pat Robertson, who in 1988* came in second with 25 percent of the vote. Both appealed to social conservatives, but Huckabee expanded the electorate, drawing new voters to the process. On caucus night, longtime participants noticed people showing up they'd never seen before at Republican functions. Those were the Huckabee fans. At the moment, Santorum looks to be inspiring Huckabee-like fervor. In the Register poll, 76 percent of Santorum supporters say they will definitely caucus rather than probably attend, a higher proportion than for any other candidate.

But this enthusiasm may not carry Santorum all the way to a win. So far, the overall number of evangelical voters appears to be down from 2008. But Ann Selzer, the highly respected pollster who runs the Des Moines Register poll, ran the numbers for a Huckabee-like turnout. Under that scenario, Rick Santorum wins with 25 percent, and Mitt Romney is second at 20 percent.

Santorum's rise would seem to contradict a storyline from this year that organization doesn't matter in Iowa. Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich rose to the top of the polls without blanketing the state. The old cliché that you're supposed to work hard and get hot at the end may not be dead, after all. The Register poll shows Iowans have recognized Santorum’s hard work. He leads in the categories of "relating to ordinary Iowans" and "least ego-driven"—you'd have to be to endure those months of lonely campaigning. He's also benefitted by avoiding the scrutiny that has battered other candidates. Negative ads about Paul may have been what stopped his rise. (He’s slipped in the last days of polling.) Newt Gingrich, once the front-runner, has plummeted after a sustained attack of negative ads. In the latest Des Moines Register poll he is now seen as the most ego-driven, least able to bring about change, least consistent.

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