HOME /  Politics :  Who's winning, who's losing, and why.

Uncertainty Principle

What John Boehner offers in place of an economic plan.

Boehner to Obama: Time to Fire Geithner, Summers. Click to go to Slate V.

To get businesses hiring, House Republican leader John Boehner wants firings. First, he wants the president to sack his economic team. Then he'd like the voters to retire or replace 39 or more Democrats so that Republicans can take control of the House.

Boehner made his pitch in a much touted speech denouncing the Obama administration's economic policies. The president's economic team just doesn't get it, he argued (a key theme in this election). They've never owned a small business or run a company. They don't understand the uncertainty the president's policies are creating in the private sector. "America's employers are afraid to invest in an economy stalled by stimulus spending and hamstrung by uncertainty," he said in one of nine uses of the word. "The prospect of higher taxes, stricter rules, and more regulations has employers sitting on their hands."

The argument is not new, but it's one that GOP aides say you're going to hear a lot between now and November. It's founded in economic reality—of course people are uncertain—but frames the economic situation such that the most effective solution is not one specific policy but simply the removal of the party in power.

Boehner says businesses are worried about the legislation that has passed and that's likely to come. Health care and financial regulatory reform were enormous bills (more than 2,000 pages each). Much of their impact is still being figured out by the regulatory agencies. The health care law will create more than 100 new regulations, says the Chamber of Commerce, whose president focused on uncertainty in his "State of American Business" speech in January. Financial reform will require 520 new rulemakings, 81 studies, and 93 reports. Executives have to wait to hire or invest while all of this is figured out so they'll know how much to spend on benefits and paperwork.

Advertisement

The future is also a vast mystery. Only some portion of the Bush tax cuts may expire, but no one knows the exact shape of the new tax code. President Obama has promised to push comprehensive energy legislation founded on putting a price on carbon. His deficit plans, if they're serious, will almost certainly require a rewriting of the tax code and cuts in federal spending.

Uncertainty as the cause of all woe resonates with voters even if they don't own businesses, because, broadly speaking, there are jitters in the country. Every day, there seems to be a reminder of the fragile state of things. Tuesday it was reported that home sales dropped 27 percent in July. Almost 60 percent of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Obama's frenetic activity ("You never want a serious crisis to go to waste," said his chief of staff Rahm Emanuel) contributes to the sense of unpredictability. Today energy legislation, tomorrow we switch to the metric system!

So stop the madness, Boehner argues. That alone will unleash economic growth. If business can be certain that Obama won't have a congressional majority to put his schemes into legislation, they'll come out from under the desk and start spending all that cash they've been hoarding while they wait for certainty.

SINGLE PAGE
Page: 1 | 2
MYSLATE
MySlate is a new tool that you track your favorite parts Slate. You can follow authors and sections, track comment threads you're interested in, and more.

John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of On Her Trail. He can be reached at slatepolitics@gmail.com. Read his series on Risk. Follow him on Twitter.