The chances of confirmation.
Oct. 24 2005 6:34 PM


Supreme chance.

Two years ago, Slate published the Saddameter, tracking the chances of a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Four years before that, the Clintometer followed President Bill Clinton's chances of being removed from office during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Today Slate inaugurates the Miers-o-Meter, which will gauge Harriet Miers' chances of making it onto the Supreme Court.



Today's Chance of Confirmation: 75 percent

Yes, the Bush administration has bungled the Miers pitch. She also appears to have underwhelmed the senators with whom she has met, including Arlen Specter. Her questionnaire performance has only increased the outcry from bloggers and commentators. But Bush doesn't budge when the pundits kvetch, so he's not likely to chuck her. She's loyal and probably won't drop out if he wants her to stay on. No GOP senator has made serious noise about voting against her. Expectations are so low that it's still possible for Bush's longtime friend to get the nod: She just needs to perform well enough at her hearings to overcome the negative assessment that has led up to them.

Send all Miers-o-Meter mail to slatepolitics@gmail.com.

Emily Bazelon is a staff writer at the New York Times Magazine and the author of Sticks and Stones

John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of On Her Trail. Read his series on the presidency and on risk.

Dahlia Lithwick writes about the courts and the law for Slate

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