Miers-o-Meter.

The chances of confirmation.
Oct. 24 2005 6:34 PM

Miers-o-Meter

Supreme chance.

Two years ago, Slate published the Saddameter, tracking the chances of a U.S. invasion of Iraq. Four years before that, the Clintometer followed President Bill Clinton's chances of being removed from office during the Monica Lewinsky scandal. Today Slate inaugurates the Miers-o-Meter, which will gauge Harriet Miers' chances of making it onto the Supreme Court.

1_123125_123005_2125447_2128688_miersometer_75

Advertisement

Today's Chance of Confirmation: 75 percent

Yes, the Bush administration has bungled the Miers pitch. She also appears to have underwhelmed the senators with whom she has met, including Arlen Specter. Her questionnaire performance has only increased the outcry from bloggers and commentators. But Bush doesn't budge when the pundits kvetch, so he's not likely to chuck her. She's loyal and probably won't drop out if he wants her to stay on. No GOP senator has made serious noise about voting against her. Expectations are so low that it's still possible for Bush's longtime friend to get the nod: She just needs to perform well enough at her hearings to overcome the negative assessment that has led up to them.

Send all Miers-o-Meter mail to slatepolitics@gmail.com.

Emily Bazelon was a Slate senior editor from 2005 to 2014. She is the author of Sticks and Stones.

John Dickerson is Slate's chief political correspondent and author of On Her Trail. Read his series on the presidency and on risk.

Dahlia Lithwick writes about the courts and the law for Slate. Follow her on Twitter.

TODAY IN SLATE

Frame Game

Hard Knocks

I was hit by a teacher in an East Texas public school. It taught me nothing.

Yes, Black Families Tend to Spank More. That Doesn’t Mean It’s Good for Black Kids.

Why Greenland’s “Dark Snow” Should Worry You

If You’re Outraged by the NFL, Follow This Satirical Blowhard on Twitter

The Best Way to Organize Your Fridge

Politics

The GOP’s Focus on Fake Problems

Why candidates like Scott Walker are building campaigns on drug tests for the poor and voter ID laws.

Sports Nut

Giving Up on Goodell

How the NFL lost the trust of its most loyal reporters.

Iran and the U.S. Are Allies Against ISIS but Aren’t Ready to Admit It Yet

Farewell! Emily Bazelon on What She Will Miss About Slate.

  News & Politics
Foreigners
Sept. 16 2014 4:08 PM More Than Scottish Pride Scotland’s referendum isn’t about nationalism. It’s about a system that failed, and a new generation looking to take a chance on itself. 
  Business
Moneybox
Sept. 16 2014 4:16 PM The iPhone 6 Marks a Fresh Chance for Wireless Carriers to Kill Your Unlimited Data
  Life
The Eye
Sept. 16 2014 12:20 PM These Outdoor Cat Shelters Have More Style Than the Average Home
  Double X
The XX Factor
Sept. 15 2014 3:31 PM My Year As an Abortion Doula
  Slate Plus
Slate Plus Video
Sept. 16 2014 2:06 PM A Farewell From Emily Bazelon The former senior editor talks about her very first Slate pitch and says goodbye to the magazine.
  Arts
Brow Beat
Sept. 16 2014 5:07 PM One Comedy Group Has the Perfect Idea for Ken Burns’ Next Project
  Technology
Future Tense
Sept. 16 2014 1:48 PM Why We Need a Federal Robotics Commission
  Health & Science
Science
Sept. 16 2014 4:09 PM It’s All Connected What links creativity, conspiracy theories, and delusions? A phenomenon called apophenia.
  Sports
Sports Nut
Sept. 15 2014 9:05 PM Giving Up on Goodell How the NFL lost the trust of its most loyal reporters.