Strange as it may seem in the wake of the street parties celebrating Tuesday’s ruling by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals invalidating California’s Proposition 8, there was a time when gay-rights advocates feared this day would come.
Leaders in the movement had spent years crafting what they felt was the perfect challenge to a different law restricting gay rights: the federal Defense of Marriage Act, which does not recognize same-sex marriages. Anti-DOMA suits working their way through the courts in Massachusetts and other states were carefully constructed to serve as the first major test cases of gay-marriage rights at the Supreme Court level. The theory behind those challenges was always that they are bold enough to make a difference, but modest enough to carry the day, even in a court that leans right. All they ask is that the federal government respect states’ marriage laws rather than imposing its own.
The lawsuit challenging Prop 8, filed in 2009 by Ted Olson and David Boies, upset those well-laid plans. It had a more ambitious aim than the anti-DOMA suits, seeking a ruling that would affirm a constitutional right to gay marriage for all.
The fear among the gay-rights establishment has been that the high-octane Prop 8 challenge would reach the Supreme Court first—and that the court would find it too radical, dealing a blow that would set the movement back years. Or, in the best case, that the court would embrace a constitutional right to gay marriage—but the nation’s conservatives would in turn renew their push for a federal marriage amendment, setting off a nasty, drawn-out political fight nationwide.
More recently, marriage-equality advocates like E.J. Graff, a journalist and fellow at Brandeis University, have learned to stop worrying and love the Prop 8 lawsuit. Why? For one thing, the specter of a public backlash is less intimidating because polls now show a majority of Americans supports gay marriage rights. People who have been fighting for gay marriage from the days when it was a fringe issue now perceive that time is on their side: The question is not whether the country will accept same-sex marriage, but when.
Second, Graff and others rightly anticipated that any ruling on Prop 8 by the 9th Circuit would sidestep the grander ambitions of the Boies/Olson challenge and instead take a sufficiently narrow approach to avoid triggering a Supreme Court rebuke. As Slate’s Dahlia Lithwick explained Tuesday, that’s exactly what happened. While there was plenty of high-flown language in Stephen Reinhardt’s majority opinion striking down Prop 8, the decision itself appeared tailor-made to appeal to the Supreme Court’s swing voter, Anthony Kennedy. Much of the reasoning rested on two opinions that Kennedy himself wrote: Lawrence v. Texas, which struck down Texas’ sodomy law, and especially Romer v. Evans, which nullified an anti-gay rights amendment in Colorado on the grounds that the state lacked a rational basis for the law.
All of which leaves gay-rights advocates free to celebrate the Prop 8 decision as a triumph, albeit a limited one. But though movement leaders won’t say it publicly, many are still rooting against Boies and Olson making it to the Supreme Court before the DOMA challenges.
Why? It’s still a risk-reward calculation. The most likely positive outcome, should the 9th Circuit’s Prop 8 decision receive a review from the high court, is that the justices uphold the 9th Circuit’s extremely narrow ruling. While that would be a moral victory for the movement, the practical outcome would be the same as if the Supreme Court declined to hear the case at all: gay Californians would regain the right to marry, with no impact anywhere else in the country, unless states first grant marriage equality rights and then withdraw them.