Lying down the rabbit hole.

Fraywatch doesn't intend to limit its coverage to the work of a single Frayster, but when commentary such as this gets pushed off Ballot Box Fray within minutes, it warrants a more enduring home. 

Subject: "Lying Down the Rabbit Hole"
Re:        "Confidence Man: The case for Bush is the case against him"
From:     The_Bell
Date:     Fri Mar 5 0759h

 At the recent Academy Awards ceremony, Hollywood's celebrities resisted their natural impulse for political activism on a stage viewed by over one billion people and largely abided by the gag rule imposed by producers. Tim Robbins – the one-time bad boy – was immaculate. And Sean Penn's reference to "WMDs that weren't there" was passed over so quickly that you missed it if you blinked. Only one person was openly critical of the President's policies, though never mentioning Bush by name.

Errol Morris, winner of the Best Documentary Oscar for his look at Robert McNamara – with a strong focus on his decisions regarding the Vietnam War – had this to say after the usual round of thank-yous:

Forty years ago this country went down a rabbit hole and millions died. I fear we're going down a rabbit hole once again.

This was not the over-the-top sensationalism of Michael's Moore's acceptance speech last year decrying a "fictitious war." It was a sincere expression of concern, rationally expressed, from a thoughtful, intelligent man. It received polite but restrained applause. It was only afterwards when host Billy Crystal quipped, "I can't wait for his tax audit" that the audience responded with hard laughter tinged by anger. Dislike of Bush within Hollywood . . . or Los Angeles, for that matter . . . or California for that matter is no surprise. But it struck me as kind of interesting in retrospect that the crowd's purest derision was directed less at the war they oppose and more at the perceived vindictive, underhanded quality of this Administration.

As a Republican, I regretfully but thoroughly agree with Mr. Saletan's view of President Bush as "too steady to turn the wheel when the road bends." I have said since I started posting in The Fray – with increasingly little agreement from my Democratic peers – that Bush is not an evil man and not nearly so unintelligent as commonly portrayed. Rather, I have always seen him as a sincere man but overly simplistic thinker, who probably makes no more wrong choices than the average resident of the Oval Office but who – as Mr. Saletan posits – is incapable of recognizing that error on either moral or pragmatic grounds.

And I agree that Democrats could suffer from negative blowback if they get too vicious and – especially – too repetitive in their attack ads. But I am not sure I agree at all that they cannot prevail by (selectively and strategically) questioning the President's honesty. Because, as Saletan points out, not matter how sincere and well-intentioned he may be, Bush holds a fundamentally dishonest worldview or at least a disingenuous view of how he operates within the world. He is naively one-dimensional and unable to divine any useful appreciation for dissent. That he believes in himself unquestioningly over the facts does not change the reality that when he makes statements in opposition to the facts, he is telling lies – or coming close enough to it in the eyes of many people.

Ronald Reagan was one-dimensional but he was never naïve and although on a few occasions during his eight years in office he was painfully slow on the uptake, he always knuckled under even his most cherished principles to popular realities. And when he had to do so, he was extremely good at making it look like he was just being a reasonable guy. Do not underestimate George Bush's charisma – he has qualities that are very attractive to a lot of people in the heartland of this country. But again, as Saletan points out, those same qualities make him anathema to others, so the same broad appeal that Reagan enjoyed is impossible for him to achieve – or at least hold.

Bill Clinton was not one-dimensional and he was as far away from being naïve as is capable by a human being. He was often highly unpopular during his time in office and the GOP was his blood enemy for eight muckraking years. But he not only survived but prevailed precisely because he appreciated the value of listening to and analyzing dissent. When popular opinion was against him, he shifted where he stood; when it was in his favor, he was an immovable rock.

George W. Bush probably sees himself – and believes others should see him – as a combination of Clinton's savvy with Reagan's teflon affability. In reality, of course, he is more Reagan's stubborn simplicity combined with Clinton's (lack of) belovedness.

Kerry and the Democrats can use that against him. Kerry can effectively call Bush a liar and get away with it because while Bush is not a stupid man, he is an inarticulate and clumsy one and he is an almost shockingly insulated politician. He almost never feels the need to justify or explain himself and he has an awful tendency to frame denials that play into the very charges being leveled against him. Ask him if his Administration is too tight-lipped and he replies "No comment." Beg him to explain why he changes his story on anything and he bewilderedly inquires, "What's the difference?" John Kerry does not so much have to be effective as Bush's opponent as he needs to be savvy at setting the President up as his own worst enemy.

I still believe this will be a close election. Even if Mr. Saletan is right and Democrats are headed for the worst possible strategy by making the election solely a referendum on Bush's honesty, the GOP are clearly committed to what I see as their worst possible strategy – making the election solely a referendum on homeland security and the fight against terrorism.

Now do not get me wrong – Bush has every right to talk about this issue. Democrats deploring his use of September 11 sound an awful lot like Republican rolling their eyes at Kerry's simultaneous promotion of himself as war hero and Vietnam conscientious objector. The attack happened on Bush's watch, he responded to it, and a lot of people – myself included – felt he did a good job initially at responding to it. The problem for many – myself included – is what has happened since. And it is not just what Bush has done (i.e. Iraq); it is what has not happened (i.e. any further major terrorist attacks on U.S. soil).

Naturally, Bush will argue this is due to the swell job that he and his Administration have done on homeland security and national defense. It may be impossible for Kerry to disprove this assertion but it will be equally problematical for Bush to prove straight cause and effect. The more time passes from the initial aftershock of September 11, the more unavoidable and compelling is the almost unbidden thought in the minds of voters that maybe the reason there have been no more attacks is because the threat is not nearly as pervasive – or at least an imminent – as we keep being told.

And as Mr. Saletan neatly concludes, President Bush's inability to see any fundamental difference between Bin Laden and Saddam, any difference between al-Qaida and the Baathists, tends to cause the questions of sincerity and honesty raised by the latter to cross-over and infect the former. That does not mean the threat of terrorism has gone away. But in making it a harder sell, Bush's over-confidence once again takes what should be his greatest strength and turns it into a potentially toxic liability.

Certainly, lots of people in this country do not feel that way about the developments within Iraq but just as certainly lots of people – and I think the tide is moving in this direction – do feel that way. Combine this with very legitimate concerns about the economy and the President is in a far weaker position than he ought to be right now. The new Iraqi constitution will be signed today but Bush's over-optimism about being able to get out of Iraq by June – without explaining exactly how – downplays that achievement. The stock market has posted gains and unemployment is at least getting no worse but this Administration's over-exaggerations and selective use of economic data present a picture so rosy that it flies in the face of most people's everyday experience.

So Bush has dived down the rabbit hold of homeland security, partly in search of sanctuary against the criticism flying against him and partly because – like the White Rabbit from Alice in Wonderland – he sincerely and urgently believes that he has a "very important date" with destiny in that general direction. The problem with rabbit holes that Bush might want to take care to remember is that they are narrow burrows, providing little wiggle room. This election may not be a referendum on his personal honesty but it most certainly ought to be a referendum on the integrity of his vision and the effectiveness of his attempts to achieve it. He will certainly be found wanting in the latter category by many but I think the former is equally open to question by Democrats.

If so, Bush may find his rabbit hole of choice less sanctuary than asylum, a road less to Wonderland than back to Waco.

Thursday, March 4, 2004

Paper Tiger, Paper Moon: The only comment on Peter Bogdanovich's television biopic, The Mystery of Natalie Wood, is a solid one. Always a fan of Bogdanovich, candide applauds Dana Stevens for a "great take on Bogdanovich, whose fall from grace to made-for-tv purgatory is entirely shocking." Here is candide:

As you pointed out, from his outset, Bogdanovich was always synonymous with erudite cinephilia. And his pre-Stratten films certainly featured their share of behind-the-scenes bravado (as in the underappreciated "Nickelodeon"). But I still think there's something obsessive and sad about this returning and returning to the same thematic of the tortured love lives of those on the sidelines or in the spotlight of show business. There a shrinking of scope in these films, far removed from the epic historical sprawl of his early work that mirrors his movement from the giant cinema image to the small screen.

By no means is candide an anti-small screen snob. On the contrary, "[a]n avowed tv lover, I wouldn't necessarily assume that this trajectory is a tragic one—and tv certainly can use its share of smart auteurs —but the sad truth seems to be that Bogdanovich's art and commitment has shrunk to fit the new medium."

Bravo to candide for not overlooking Bogdanovich's portrayal of Eric Stoltz's group therapist in Noah Baumbach's Mr. Jealousy (a precursor to his role on The Sopranos as Melfi's shrink).

Tribal Warfare: Fraywatch is trying to make some sense of TheObservor's experiment in National Geography—his homemade Slate Tribe Game. At the outset, it looks something like this:

1. I am going to create ten of what your people call "sub-threads" below this one. Each one will represent a "tribe". Tribes will be identified by totem animals.

2. Please tell me which tribe you want to be a part of by placing a post in the "sub-thread" of the tribe you want to join. It is like each one is a "flag" and you are standing by the flag of your tribe. I am guessing the first posters will want to join tribes because they feel a special bond with the totem animal. ...

Bylaws three through six appear in the body of the message. Subsequent rules have been posted here. An early headcount gives the nod to the Gnu Tribe.

At ARM's Length: Aptly named mtgbanker tells Daniel Gross that he's "totally missed Greenspan's point" regarding the variable benefits of adjustable-rate mortgages: