Reports of the Iranian regime's imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.

TEHRAN, Iran—I've begun to wonder about all the so-called "Iran experts" in the West. As Feb. 11, the 31^st anniversary of the Islamic republic's founding, approaches, many of the reports about the imminent demise of the Iranian regime read like wishful thinking. On the flip side, those who claim the theocracy will survive as is also seem off the mark. Here in Tehran, things are much murkier.

The stakes are higher than ever, especially now that opportunists of every stripe are doing their best to fill the gaps in the green movement. Many groups oppose the current government, but few can agree on what a nontheocratic Iran will look like. The lazy and, sadly, most common mantra is, "Anything would be better than this." But looking at some of the alternatives, I'm not so sure. If the millions of Iranians dissatisfied with the current system are not careful, they might soon look back nostalgically on the last 30 years in much the same way in which many now regard the shah.

A number of figures from Iranian history are currently vying for attention, all dreaming of taking power in a post-Islamic republic era. Each offers vague promises of a freer, more democratic Iran.

There is a growing schism between people battling for change inside Iran and those based outside the country. Individuals and groups operating outside Iran's borders hold little sway with the domestic protesters. A 25-year-old graduate student and office worker in Tehran told me, "I think most of those who have left forget about those of us here very quickly. I can't think of one person speaking on behalf of Iran who I believe is out for anything besides their own gain."

Nevertheless, she expressed a strong belief in the validity of the protest movement. "We exist. We're not sure what we are yet, but we're struggling to find out. And we keep growing in numbers. Ultimately, though, it's up to us who are here. We wish the world would respect that and just encourage us."

The spokespeople in exile refuse to honor this request, and some are attempting to capitalize on the work of the internal Iranian opposition.

Recently, Reza Pahlavi, the last shah's son, has inserted himself into the fray, turning his tired call for a constitutional monarchy into a crowd-pleasing appeal for secular democracy. Even if this is what most Iranians ultimately want, he, like many of the self-anointed green leaders, doesn't have enough support inside the country to help foster democracy in Iran.

For months now, Mohsen Sazegara has been a fixture on Voice of America's Farsi network. He also created a YouTube channel dedicated to disseminating protest news. As a self-proclaimed "founder of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard," Sazegara has become a favorite interview subject, as well as a spokesman for nonviolent resistance. Anything's possible, I suppose, but so far his biggest contribution to the struggle has been talking up the "currency campaign," in which bank notes—many millions of them by his estimation—were defaced with pro-green-movement slogans. But as anyone in Iran will tell you, it never caught on. Still, Sazegara has been so vocal about it that many Iran experts now point to the currency campaign as a prime example of the ingenuity of the greens. While Sazegara's international profile has risen, he is fading inside the country. Indeed, many Iranians compare him to Ahmad Chalabi.