# Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 15 2004 10:46 AM

# Election Scorecard

## Where the presidential race stands today.

 If the Election Were Held Today Winner Loser

159 solid, 111 close

160 solid, 108 close

Analysis Oct. 15: Current map shows Bush can win without Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. His winning combination: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and defeat or invalidation of the Colorado ballot measure on splitting its electoral votes. If he gets Wisconsin, he can afford to lose New Hampshire and New Mexico, or one of those two states plus the ballot measure. If he gets Ohio, Wisconsin, and the northern district of Maine, he can afford to lose Florida and the ballot measure.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

 Trial Heat Trend Bush Kerry Nader Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Bush Kerry Since 48 48 1 3 10/12-14 Likely WP 0 0 10/11-13 48 44 1 2.9 10/12-14 Likely Reuters/Zogby +2 -1 10/11-13 47 44 2 3.5 10/11-14 Likely TIPP 0 0 10/10-13 48 48 0 3.1 10/10-11 Likely Democracy Corps 0 -1 10/3-5 48 45 2 3 10/9-11 Likely CBS +1 -2 10/1-3 48 43 2 3.5 10/9-11 Likely ICR -3 -2 10/1-5 48 49 2 4 10/9-10 Likely CNN/USA -1 0 10/1-3 49 46 1 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -2 +2 9/27-30 46 45 4 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -1 +4 9/21-23 46 50 2 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -6 +5 9/20-22 49 46 1 3 10/4-5 Likely Marist -1 +2 9/20-22 46 46 2 3.5 10/2-4 Likely ARG -1 -1 8/30-9/1 47 45 1 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +1 +3 9/21-22 49 44 2 4 10/1-3 Likely Pew +2 -2 9/11-14 45 47 2 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -4 +4 9/9-10 51 45 2 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 48 40 2 3.5 9/22-26 Registered Pew +3 -2 9/17-21 48 42 5 4 9/21-23 Likely Time -4 +2 9/7-9 50 46 1 4 9/17-19 Likely NBC/WSJ N/A N/A 8/23-25 47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris 0 +1 8/10-15 46 46 3 3.5 9/7-12 Likely IBD/TIPP N/A N/A 51 46 1 3.5 9/7-9 Likely AP N/A N/A

 Bush Job Approval Trend Approve Disapprove Marginof Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Approve Disapprove Since 43 48 3 10/9-11 Likely CBS -4 +5 10/1-3 47 49 4 10/9-10 Likely CNN/USA -3 +1 10/1-3 52 45 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -1 +2 9/27-30 50 46 3 10/7-9 Likely Time -3 +3 9/21-23 46 53 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -8 +7 9/20-22 49 48 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist 0 -1 9/20-22 53 43 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +3 -2 9/21-22 47 43 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 -1 9/20-22 53 45 3 10/1-3 Likely ABC/WP +3 +1 9/23-26 49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +2 -5 9/17-19 53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground 0 -2 9/23 50 45 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 +1 9/7-8 49 47 3.1 9/19-21 Likely Democracy Corps -1 -1 9/12-14 47 48 3 9/17-19 Registered NBC/WSJ 0 0 8/23-25 50 42 3 9/12-16 Registered CBS/NYT 0 +1 9/6-8

 Re-Elect Trend Yes No Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Yes No Since 46 49 2.9 10/8-10 Likely Zogby +1 -1 10/5-7 45 51 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -2 +2 9/21-23 48 46 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -2 0 9/9-10 50 47 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -5 +4 9/7-9 45 51 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris N/A N/A

 Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend Right Wrong Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Right Wrong Since 40 53 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -1 +3 9/27-30 40 56 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -5 +4 9/20-22 41 53 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist +3 0 9/20-22 42 53 3.1 10/3-5 Likely Democracy Corps +2 0 9/26-28 40 51 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 -3 9/20-22 48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +5 -3 9/17-19 41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +2 -3 9/23 42 53 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -3 +2 9/7-9 46 49 3 9/7-9 Registered Time +1 -1 8/31-Sept. 2 44 52 3 9/6-8 Registered CBS +5 -3 7/30-Aug. 1

 Favorable/Unfavorable Rating Bush Trend Kerry Trend Bush Kerry Marginof Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Since 50/44 48/43 3 10/12-14 Likely WP +1 -2 0 0 10/11-13 51/46 52/44 4 10/9-10 Likely CNN/USA -2 +1 0 +1 10/1-3 53/45 51/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -3 +3 +3 -4 9/27-30 48/42 50/34 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -6 +4 +7 -8 9/7-9 52/43 46/44 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox 0 0 -1 0 9/21-22 44/44 40/41 3 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -2 +6 +8 -3 9/20-22 53/44 52/43 4 10/1-3 Likely CNN/USA -2 +1 +1 -1 10/1-3 57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered Pew +7 -6 -1 +2 9/11-14 49/46 52/40 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -3 +2 +4 -4 9/9-10 56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +1 0 -2 +2 9/23 54/46 48/50 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50/48 51/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered Marist -1 +1 -5 +8 7/30-8/2 52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 0 -1 0 9/7-8 55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely Gallup N/A N/A N/A N/A 49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew -6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10 54/38 43/42 3 9/7-9 Registered Time +9 -7 -10 +13 8/3-5 47/39 32/41 3 9/6-8 Registered CBS +4 -5 -6 +7 7/30-8/1

 Electoral Vote State Bush Kerry Nader Margin Sample Dates Sponsor/Pollster Bush Solid Bush Close Kerry Close Kerry Solid AL 56 32 1 4 Likely 10/12-14 Capital Survey 9 AK 57 30 5 4 Likely 9/9-11 American Research Group 3 AZ 49 44 N/A 5 Likely 10/8-11 Northern Arizona U 10 AR 52 43 N/A 4.5 Likely 10/4-6 Opinion Research 6 CA 40 49 N/A 4.3 Likely 9/30-10/3 Field 55 CO 52 44 N/A 4.1 Likely 10/5-7 Survey USA 9 CT 44 50 2 3.6 Likely 9/26-28 Quinnipiac 7 DE 38 45 2 3.9 Likely 9/22-25 WHYY-TV 3 DC 11 78 6 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group 3 FL 49 45 1 3 Likely 10/12-14 Strategic Vision 27 GA 58 37 2 3 Likely 10/12-14 Strategic Vision 15 HI 41 51 4 4 Likely 9/7-11 American Research Group 4 ID 59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group 4 IL 39 55 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 21 IN 53 40 N/A 4 Likely 10/10-12 Research 2000 11 IA 47 47 2 4 Likely 10/9-12 American Research Group 7 KS 57 35 2 4 Likely 9/15-18 American Research Group 6 KY 57 38 3 3.9 Likely 10/4-6 Survey USA 8 LA 50 42 1 4 Likely 9/17-21 American Research Group 9 ME 47 49 N/A 3.9 Likely 10/3-5 Survey USA 4 MD 41 56 2 4.1 Likely 10/5-7 Survey USA 10 MA 36 51 2 3.5 Registered 9/25-10-5 Merrimack 12 MI 40 48 1 3 Likely 10/12-14 Strategic Vision
17 MN4547N/A3Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision  10   MS514214Likely9/14-17 American Research Group6     MO4947N/A3.8Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 11    MT553425Registered10/7-10 Montana State U.3    NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5    NV5046N/A4Likely10/1-3 Survey USA 5   NH474714Likely10/3-5 American Research Group  4   NJ4646N/A4.5Likely10/8-14 FD Public Mind 15    NM504724Likely10/3-6 CNN/USA 5    NY3558N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA    31 NC5245N/A4Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 15   ND62 33 1 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group3   OH4549N/A4.4Likely10/8-11 Chicaco Tribune  20   OK6333N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA7  OR444924Likely10/9-12 American Research Group   7 PA4749N/A2.2Likely10/9-11 Quinnipiac   21   RI3656N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA   4 SC5542N/A4.2Likely10/10-12 Survey USA8    SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3    TN5839N/A 4 Likely 10/3-5  Survey USA11 TX6037N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA34    UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5    VT405335Likely10/10-12 Research 2000   3 VA4943N/A 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group 13    WA4450N/A3Likely10/4-6 Strategic Vision  11 WV5145N/A5Likely9/17-20 Gallup 5     WI4347N/A4.4Likely10/8-11 Chicago Tribune    10     WY65 29 2 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3

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