Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 15 2004 10:46 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

270 Electoral Votes
159 solid, 111 close

268 Electoral Votes
160 solid, 108 close

1_123125_2106526_electoralkey

Analysis Oct. 15: Current map shows Bush can win without Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. His winning combination: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and defeat or invalidation of the Colorado ballot measure on splitting its electoral votes. If he gets Wisconsin, he can afford to lose New Hampshire and New Mexico, or one of those two states plus the ballot measure. If he gets Ohio, Wisconsin, and the northern district of Maine, he can afford to lose Florida and the ballot measure.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

1_123125_2106526_chartexample

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
4848 10/12-14 Likely  WP 10/11-13
4844 2.9 10/12-14 Likely  Reuters/Zogby+2 -1  10/11-13
47443.5 10/11-14 Likely  TIPP 10/10-13 
4848 3.1 10/10-11 Likely  Democracy Corps-1  10/3-5 
48 45 10/9-11 Likely  CBS+1 -2  10/1-3
48 43 3.5 10/9-11 Likely  ICR-3 -2  10/1-5
48 49 10/9-10Likely  CNN/USA-1 10/1-3 
4946 3.110/3-7 Likely  Battleground-2+2 9/27-30
46 45410/6-7 Likely  Time-1 +4  9/21-23 
46 50 10/4-6 Likely  AP-6 +5 9/20-22 
49 46 10/4-5 Likely  Marist-1 +2  9/20-22  
46 46 3.5 10/2-4 Likely  ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1 
4745310/3-4 Likely  Fox+1 +3  9/21-22
49 44 10/1-3 Likely  Pew+2 -2  9/11-14
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
514613.59/7-9Likely APN/AN/A   

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
43 48 10/9-11 Likely  CBS-4 +5  10/1-3
47 49 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-3 +1 10/1-3 
5245 3.1 10/3-7Likely Battleground-1 +2  9/27-30
5046 10/7-9 Likely  Time-3+3  9/21-23
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
49473.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1-1 9/12-14
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
46 49 2.9 10/8-10 LikelyZogby +1 -1 10/5-7 
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time  -2 +2  9/21-23
48 46 9/30-10/2 Registered  Newsweek-2  9/9-10
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
40533.1 10/3-7Likely  Battleground-1 +3  9/27-30
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
42 53 3.1 10/3-5 Likely  Democracy Corps+2  9/26-28
40 51 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1-3 9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9
464939/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-Sept. 2
445239/6-8Registered CBS+5-3 7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
50/4448/43 10/12-14 Likely  WP  +1 -2  10/11-13 
51/46 52/44 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-2 +1 +1 10/1-3 
53/4551/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely  Battleground-3 +3 +3 -4  9/27-30 
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
44/44 40/41 310/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-2 +6 +8 -3  9/20-22
53/44 52/43 10/1-3 Likely  CNN/USA-2 +1 +1 -1 10/1-3 
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10
54/3843/4239/7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 8/3-5
47/3932/4139/6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 7/30-8/1

93_arrow_right

 Electoral Vote
StateBushKerryNaderMarginSampleDatesSponsor/
Pollster
Bush
Solid
Bush
Close
Kerry
Close
Kerry
Solid
AL

56

3214Likely10/12-14 Capital Survey9   
AK57305 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   
AZ4944N/A5Likely10/8-11Northern Arizona U10   

AR

52

43

N/A

4.5

Likely

10/4-6

Opinion Research 
CA4049N/A4.3Likely9/30-10/3 Field  55
CO5244N/A 4.1Likely10/5-7 Survey USA 9      
CT445023.6Likely9/26-28 Quinnipiac   
DE384523.9Likely9/22-25 WHYY-TV  3   
DC11 78 6 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group    3
FL494513Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision  27   
GA583723Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision15   
HI415144Likely9/7-11 American Research Group   4
ID59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group4   
IL3955N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA    21
IN5340N/A4Likely10/10-12 Research 200011   
IA47474Likely10/9-12 American Research Group     
KS573524 Likely9/15-18 American Research Group6   
KY573833.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA8   
LA504214Likely9/17-21 American Research Group9   
ME4749N/A3.9Likely10/3-5 Survey USA  4
MD415624.1Likely10/5-7 Survey USA   10
MA36513.5Registered9/25-10-5 Merrimack    12
MI 40 48 1 3 Likely 10/12-14 Strategic Vision     
17 MN4547N/A3Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision  10   MS514214Likely9/14-17 American Research Group6     MO4947N/A3.8Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 11    MT553425Registered10/7-10 Montana State U.3    NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5    NV5046N/A4Likely10/1-3 Survey USA 5   NH474714Likely10/3-5 American Research Group  4   NJ4646N/A4.5Likely10/8-14 FD Public Mind 15    NM504724Likely10/3-6 CNN/USA 5    NY3558N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA    31 NC5245N/A4Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 15   ND62 33 1 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group3   OH4549N/A4.4Likely10/8-11 Chicaco Tribune  20   OK6333N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA7  OR444924Likely10/9-12 American Research Group   7 PA4749N/A2.2Likely10/9-11 Quinnipiac   21   RI3656N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA   4 SC5542N/A4.2Likely10/10-12 Survey USA8    SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3    TN5839N/A 4 Likely 10/3-5  Survey USA11 TX6037N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA34    UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5    VT405335Likely10/10-12 Research 2000   3 VA4943N/A 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group 13    WA4450N/A3Likely10/4-6 Strategic Vision  11 WV5145N/A5Likely9/17-20 Gallup 5     WI4347N/A4.4Likely10/8-11 Chicago Tribune    10     WY65 29 2 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3    

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