Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 15 2004 10:46 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

270 Electoral Votes
159 solid, 111 close

268 Electoral Votes
160 solid, 108 close

1_123125_2106526_electoralkey
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Analysis Oct. 15: Current map shows Bush can win without Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. His winning combination: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and defeat or invalidation of the Colorado ballot measure on splitting its electoral votes. If he gets Wisconsin, he can afford to lose New Hampshire and New Mexico, or one of those two states plus the ballot measure. If he gets Ohio, Wisconsin, and the northern district of Maine, he can afford to lose Florida and the ballot measure.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

1_123125_2106526_chartexample

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
4848 10/12-14 Likely  WP 10/11-13
4844 2.9 10/12-14 Likely  Reuters/Zogby+2 -1  10/11-13
47443.5 10/11-14 Likely  TIPP 10/10-13 
4848 3.1 10/10-11 Likely  Democracy Corps-1  10/3-5 
48 45 10/9-11 Likely  CBS+1 -2  10/1-3
48 43 3.5 10/9-11 Likely  ICR-3 -2  10/1-5
48 49 10/9-10Likely  CNN/USA-1 10/1-3 
4946 3.110/3-7 Likely  Battleground-2+2 9/27-30
46 45410/6-7 Likely  Time-1 +4  9/21-23 
46 50 10/4-6 Likely  AP-6 +5 9/20-22 
49 46 10/4-5 Likely  Marist-1 +2  9/20-22  
46 46 3.5 10/2-4 Likely  ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1 
4745310/3-4 Likely  Fox+1 +3  9/21-22
49 44 10/1-3 Likely  Pew+2 -2  9/11-14
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
514613.59/7-9Likely APN/AN/A   

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
43 48 10/9-11 Likely  CBS-4 +5  10/1-3
47 49 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-3 +1 10/1-3 
5245 3.1 10/3-7Likely Battleground-1 +2  9/27-30
5046 10/7-9 Likely  Time-3+3  9/21-23
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
49473.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1-1 9/12-14
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
46 49 2.9 10/8-10 LikelyZogby +1 -1 10/5-7 
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time  -2 +2  9/21-23
48 46 9/30-10/2 Registered  Newsweek-2  9/9-10
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
40533.1 10/3-7Likely  Battleground-1 +3  9/27-30
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
42 53 3.1 10/3-5 Likely  Democracy Corps+2  9/26-28
40 51 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1-3 9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9
464939/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-Sept. 2
445239/6-8Registered CBS+5-3 7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
50/4448/43 10/12-14 Likely  WP  +1 -2  10/11-13 
51/46 52/44 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-2 +1 +1 10/1-3 
53/4551/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely  Battleground-3 +3 +3 -4  9/27-30 
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
44/44 40/41 310/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-2 +6 +8 -3  9/20-22
53/44 52/43 10/1-3 Likely  CNN/USA-2 +1 +1 -1 10/1-3 
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10
54/3843/4239/7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 8/3-5
47/3932/4139/6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 7/30-8/1

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