# Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 19 2004 10:55 AM

# Election Scorecard

## Where the presidential race stands today.

 If the Election Were Held Today Winner Loser

160 solid, 124 close

163 solid, 91 close

Analysis Oct. 19: Bush's average national margin narrows; several polls now suggest a tie. Latest polls give Kerry 284 electoral votes, but a more complete Slate analysis later today will assign Florida to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and one Maine EV to Bush, leaving Kerry with 276.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

 Trial Heat Trend Bush Kerry Nader Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Bush Kerry Since 45 45 1 2.9 10/14-17 Likely Reuters/Zogby -1 +1 10/14-16 47 45 2 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -1 0 10/9-11 50 47 1 3 10/14-17 Likely WP 0 +1 10/14-16 52 44 1 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA +4 -5 10/9-10 47 50 1 3.1 10/14-16 Likely Democracy Corps -1 +2 10/10-11 48 45 2 3.5 10/13-16 Likely TIPP 0 0 10/12-15 48 46 N/A 4 10/14-15 Likely Time +2 +1 10/6-7 50 44 1 4 10/14-15 Likely Newsweek N/A N/A N/A 48 43 2 3.5 10/9-11 Likely ICR -3 -2 10/1-5 49 46 1 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -2 +2 9/27-30 46 50 2 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -6 +5 9/20-22 49 46 1 3 10/4-5 Likely Marist -1 +2 9/20-22 46 46 2 3.5 10/2-4 Likely ARG -1 -1 8/30-9/1 47 45 1 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +1 +3 9/21-22 49 44 2 4 10/1-3 Likely Pew +2 -2 9/11-14 45 47 2 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -4 +4 9/9-10 51 45 2 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 48 40 2 3.5 9/22-26 Registered Pew +3 -2 9/17-21 48 42 5 4 9/21-23 Likely Time -4 +2 9/7-9 50 46 1 4 9/17-19 Likely NBC/WSJ N/A N/A 8/23-25 47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris 0 +1 8/10-15 46 46 3 3.5 9/7-12 Likely IBD/TIPP N/A N/A

 Bush Job Approval Trend Approve Disapprove Marginof Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Approve Disapprove Since 51 47 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA +4 -2 10/9-10 49 50 3.1 10/14-16 Likely Democracy Corps 0 +3 9/19-21 49 49 3 10/14-15 Registered Time -1 +3 10/7-9 43 48 3 10/9-11 Likely CBS -4 +5 10/1-3 52 45 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -1 +2 9/27-30 46 53 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -8 +7 9/20-22 49 48 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist 0 -1 9/20-22 53 43 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +3 -2 9/21-22 47 43 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 -1 9/20-22 53 45 3 10/1-3 Likely ABC/WP +3 +1 9/23-26 49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +2 -5 9/17-19 53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground 0 -2 9/23 50 45 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 +1 9/7-8 47 48 3 9/17-19 Registered NBC/WSJ 0 0 8/23-25 50 42 3 9/12-16 Registered CBS/NYT 0 +1 9/6-8

 Re-Elect Trend Yes No Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Yes No Since 47 48 4 10/14-15 Registered Newsweek -1 +2 9/30-10/2 46 49 2.9 10/8-10 Likely Zogby +1 -1 10/5-7 45 51 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -2 +2 9/21-23 50 47 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -5 +4 9/7-9 45 51 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris N/A N/A

 Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend Right Wrong Margin of Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Right Wrong Since 39 57 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -2 +7 10/1-3 44 51 3.1 10/14-16 Likely Democracy Corps +2 -2 10/3-5 40 55 4 10/14-15 Registered Newsweek N/A N/A N/A 40 53 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -1 +3 9/27-30 40 56 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -5 +4 9/20-22 41 53 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist +3 0 9/20-22 48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +5 -3 9/17-19 41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +2 -3 9/23 42 53 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A 43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time -3 +2 9/7-9

 Favorable/Unfavorable Rating Bush Trend Kerry Trend Bush Kerry Marginof Error Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/Pollster Fav Unfav Fav Unfav Since 43/45 39/44 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -1 +1 -1 +3 10/1-3 53/42 46/43 3 10/14-17 Likely WP -1 +2 0 0 10/14-16 55/44 52/45 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA +4 -2 0 +1 10/9-10 49/40 48/37 3 10/14-15 Registered Time -5 +2 +5 -5 9/7-9 53/45 51/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -3 +3 +3 -4 9/27-30 48/42 50/34 3 10/6-7 Likely Time -6 +4 +7 -8 9/7-9 52/43 46/44 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox 0 0 -1 0 9/21-22 57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered Pew +7 -6 -1 +2 9/11-14 49/46 52/40 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek -3 +2 +4 -4 9/9-10 56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground +1 0 -2 +2 9/23 54/46 48/50 3 9/25-28 Likely LA Times N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 50/48 51/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered Marist -1 +1 -5 +8 7/30-8/2 52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 0 -1 0 9/7-8 55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely Gallup N/A N/A N/A N/A 49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew -6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10

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