Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 19 2004 10:55 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

25_happykerry
59_bushbumed

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

284 Electoral Votes
160 solid, 124 close

254 Electoral Votes
163 solid, 91 close

1_123125_2106526_electoralkey
Advertisement

Analysis Oct. 19: Bush's average national margin narrows; several polls now suggest a tie. Latest polls give Kerry 284 electoral votes, but a more complete Slate analysis later today will assign Florida to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and one Maine EV to Bush, leaving Kerry with 276.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

1_123125_2106526_chartexample

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
45 45 2.9 10/14-17 Likely  Reuters/Zogby -1 +1  10/14-16 
47 45 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS  -1 10/9-11 
50 47 10/14-17 Likely  WP +1 10/14-16 
52 44 10/14-16 Likely  CNN/USA+4 -5  10/9-10
4750 3.1 10/14-16 Likely  Democracy Corps-1+2  10/10-11
48453.5 10/13-16 Likely  TIPP00 10/12-15
4846 N/A 10/14-15 Likely  Time+2 +1  10/6-7 
50441410/14-15Likely NewsweekN/AN/A N/A 
48 43 3.5 10/9-11 Likely  ICR-3 -2  10/1-5
4946 3.110/3-7 Likely  Battleground-2+2 9/27-30
46 50 10/4-6 Likely  AP-6 +5 9/20-22 
49 46 10/4-5 Likely  Marist-1 +2  9/20-22  
46 46 3.5 10/2-4 Likely  ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1 
4745310/3-4 Likely  Fox+1 +3  9/21-22
49 44 10/1-3 Likely  Pew+2 -2  9/11-14
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
5147 410/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 10/9-10
4950 3.1 10/14-16 Likely  Democracy Corps0+3  9/19-21
494910/14-15Registered Time-1+3  10/7-9
43 48 10/9-11 Likely  CBS-4 +5  10/1-3
5245 3.1 10/3-7Likely Battleground-1 +2  9/27-30
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
4748 10/14-15 Registered Newsweek-1 +2  9/30-10/2 
46 49 2.9 10/8-10 LikelyZogby +1 -1 10/5-7 
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time-2 +2  9/21-23
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
39 57 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS -2 +7  10/1-3  
4451 3.110/14-16Likely  Democracy Corps+2-2  10/3-5
405510/14-15 Registered  NewsweekN/AN/A N/A 
40533.1 10/3-7Likely  Battleground-1 +3  9/27-30
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
43/45 39/44 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS  -1 +1 -1 +3  10/1-3 
53/42 46/43 10/14-17 Likely  WP -1 +2 10/14-16 
55/44 52/45 10/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 +1  10/9-10
49/4048/3710/14-15Registered Time-5 +2 +5-5  9/7-9
53/4551/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely  Battleground-3 +3 +3 -4  9/27-30 
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10