Election scorecard.

Election scorecard.

Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 19 2004 10:55 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

25_happykerry
59_bushbumed

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

284 Electoral Votes
160 solid, 124 close

254 Electoral Votes
163 solid, 91 close

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Analysis Oct. 19: Bush's average national margin narrows; several polls now suggest a tie. Latest polls give Kerry 284 electoral votes, but a more complete Slate analysis later today will assign Florida to Bush, New Mexico to Kerry, and one Maine EV to Bush, leaving Kerry with 276.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

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In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

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Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
45 45 2.9 10/14-17 Likely  Reuters/Zogby -1 +1  10/14-16 
47 45 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS  -1 10/9-11 
50 47 10/14-17 Likely  WP +1 10/14-16 
52 44 10/14-16 Likely  CNN/USA+4 -5  10/9-10
4750 3.1 10/14-16 Likely  Democracy Corps-1+2  10/10-11
48453.5 10/13-16 Likely  TIPP00 10/12-15
4846 N/A 10/14-15 Likely  Time+2 +1  10/6-7 
50441410/14-15Likely NewsweekN/AN/A N/A 
48 43 3.5 10/9-11 Likely  ICR-3 -2  10/1-5
4946 3.110/3-7 Likely  Battleground-2+2 9/27-30
46 50 10/4-6 Likely  AP-6 +5 9/20-22 
49 46 10/4-5 Likely  Marist-1 +2  9/20-22  
46 46 3.5 10/2-4 Likely  ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1 
4745310/3-4 Likely  Fox+1 +3  9/21-22
49 44 10/1-3 Likely  Pew+2 -2  9/11-14
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
5147 410/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 10/9-10
4950 3.1 10/14-16 Likely  Democracy Corps0+3  9/19-21
494910/14-15Registered Time-1+3  10/7-9
43 48 10/9-11 Likely  CBS-4 +5  10/1-3
5245 3.1 10/3-7Likely Battleground-1 +2  9/27-30
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
4748 10/14-15 Registered Newsweek-1 +2  9/30-10/2 
46 49 2.9 10/8-10 LikelyZogby +1 -1 10/5-7 
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time-2 +2  9/21-23
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
39 57 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS -2 +7  10/1-3  
4451 3.110/14-16Likely  Democracy Corps+2-2  10/3-5
405510/14-15 Registered  NewsweekN/AN/A N/A 
40533.1 10/3-7Likely  Battleground-1 +3  9/27-30
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9

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Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
43/45 39/44 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS  -1 +1 -1 +3  10/1-3 
53/42 46/43 10/14-17 Likely  WP -1 +2 10/14-16 
55/44 52/45 10/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 +1  10/9-10
49/4048/3710/14-15Registered Time-5 +2 +5-5  9/7-9
53/4551/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely  Battleground-3 +3 +3 -4  9/27-30 
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10

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 Electoral Vote
StateBushKerryNaderMarginSampleDatesSponsor/
Pollster
Bush
Solid
Bush
Close
Kerry
Close
Kerry
Solid
AL

56

3214Likely10/12-14 Capital Survey9   
AK57305 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   
AZ4944N/A5Likely10/8-11Northern Arizona U10   

AR

51

46

N/A

4.5

Likely

10/15-17

Survey USA
6  CA4353N/A4Likely9/14-17 Survey USA  55 CO514514Likely10/14-17 CNN/USA 9       CT445023.6Likely9/26-28 Quinnipiac    DE384523.9Likely9/22-25 WHYY-TV  3    DC11 78 6 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group    3 FL 49 50 N/A 4 Likely 10/15-17 Survey USA    27   GA583723Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision15    HI415144Likely9/7-11 American Research Group   4 ID59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group4    IL3955N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA    21 IN5340N/A4Likely10/10-12 Research 200011    IA47474Likely10/9-12 American Research Group      KS573524 Likely9/15-18 American Research Group6    KY573833.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA8    LA504214Likely9/17-21 American Research Group9    ME4749N/A3.9Likely10/3-5 Survey USA  4 MD415624.1Likely10/5-7 Survey USA   10 MA36513.5Registered9/25-10/5 Merrimack    12 MI404813Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision    17  MN4547N/A3Likely10/12-14 Strategic Vision  10   MS514214Likely9/14-17 American Research Group6     MO4947N/A3.8Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 11    MT553425Registered10/7-10 Montana State U.3    NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5    NV5046N/A4Likely10/1-3 Survey USA 5   NH414614.9Likely10/14-17

Suffolk University

   4   NJ4646N/A4.5Likely10/8-14 FD Public Mind 15      NM504724Likely10/3-6 CNN/USA 5    NY3558N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA    31 NC5047N/A4Likely10/14-17 Survey USA 15   ND62 33 1 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group3   OH4549N/A4.4Likely10/8-11 Chicaco Tribune  20   OK6333N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA7  OR444924Likely10/10-12 American Research Group   7 PA4551N/A4Likely10/15-17 Survey USA   21   RI3656N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA   4 SC5542N/A4.2Likely10/10-12 Survey USA8    SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3    TN5839N/A 4 Likely 10/3-5  Survey USA11 TX6037N/A4.1Likely10/9-11 Survey USA34    UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5    VT405335Likely10/10-12 Research 2000   3 VA4943N/A 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group 13    WA4552N/A4Likely10/15-17 Survey USA  11 WV5145N/A5Likely9/17-20 Gallup 5     WI4347N/A4.4Likely10/8-11 Chicago Tribune    10     WY65 29 2 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3    

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