Election Scorecard

If the Election Were Held Today
Winner		Loser

276 Electoral Votes
153 solid, 88 likely, 35 iffy 262 Electoral Votes
174 solid, 53 likely, 35 iffy

Analysis Oct. 20, 11:00 a.m. ET: No change in the electoral vote count yet, but underlying currents are moving to Kerry. Latest polls suggest that a Florida shift to Kerry is more plausible than an Ohio shift to Bush, and a Kerry upset in West Virginia is more plausible than a Bush upset in New Jersey. The quantitative basis for ceding West Virginia to Bush is thin, and online and Democratic polls are making it thinner. We await the first neutral phone poll of October.

Update 1:15 p.m. ET: New polls give Bush hope in New Hampshire but shore up New Mexico and Wisconsin for Kerry. The gradual isolation of Gallup in the latter two states makes us wonder whether to reexamine Gallup’s numbers elsewhere.

Note: Analysis in some states is based on surveys not yet posted in the tables.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slateawards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it’s likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush’s performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

Tightest States
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate’s Call
FL (27)	50.1	48.9	0.3	2.1	10/13-18	Zogby/WSJ (O)	Bush iffy. Mason-Dixon’s survey is newer than UNF’s and more consistent with most recent polls. Survey USA has Kerry ahead but is automated and excludes Nader. Still, Bush has now led in just three of six nonpartisan conventional October polls. Kerry had two; the other was a tie. Very dangerous for the president. We’ll withhold reevaluation until we see consecutive surveys showing Kerry ahead.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Florida.)
	49	50	N/A	4	10/15-17	SurveyUSA (A)
	48	45	N/A	4	10/14-16	Mason-Dixon
	49	45	1	3	10/12-14	Strategic Vision (R)
	49	46	1	4	10/8-14	Rasmussen (A)
	48	48	1	4	10/4-10	Washington Post
	48	44	3	4	10/4-5	Mason-Dixon
	51	44	N/A	3.7	10/1-5	Quinnipiac
	47	49	N/A	4	10/2-5	American Research Group
	49.1	49.5	0.5	2.2	9/30-5	Zogby/WSJ (O)
	51	46	N/A	3.8	10/1-3	SurveyUSA (A)

IA
(7)47.951.1 0.4 4.1 10/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O)Bush iffy. Three October polls (Trib, GOP firm, and Dem firm) put him narrowly ahead. All other October polls are tied, automated, or online. Zogby’s is the newest and has Kerry up 3, but that’s a gain for Bush in his survey. We’ll need to see a more conventional poll before reevaluating. 47472 4 10/10-12 American Research Group  49461310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 474514.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 4650N/A5.09/27-10/10Rasmussen (A) 4847N/A3.910/4-6SurveyUSA (A) 44.5 51.1 0.2 4.1 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O)  ME
(4)4749 N/A3.9 10/3-5 SurveyUSA (A)3-1 split for Kerry. In 2000, Bush lost Maine by 5 points and lost its second CD by 1 point. If he loses the state by fewer than 4 points, as polls suggest, he’ll probably win the second CD and pick up 1 EV, leaving Kerry the other 3 EVs.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Maine.) 4746N/A49/20-22SurveyUSA (A) 4245349/10-23Critical Insights 4448449/8-10American Research Group MN
(10)45471310/12-14Strategic Vision (R)Kerry likely. He has led in every conventional poll for the past month.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Minnesota.) 434823.410/9-11Star-Tribune 434524.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 43501310/2-4Hart Research (D) NV
(5)5046N/A410/1-3SurveyUSA (A)Bush likely. He has led in every conventional poll.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Nevada.) 4844249/20-28BR&S/Las Vegas Sun 4745N/A59/23Rasmussen (A) 5243159/18-21Gallup NH
(4)47461410/16-19American Research GroupKerry likely. ARG has Bush up 1 but has been consistently at odds with three other conventional pollsters and the Zogby online survey, all of which have shown Kerry leading by 4 to 7 points. 46.0 51.1 1.1 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O)  45 49 2 4 10/12-14 Research 2000  47471410/3-5American Research Group 43.9 50.5 1.7 4.1 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O)  42491410/3-4Franklin Pierce 504514.39/27-10/3UNH Granite Poll NM
(5)46481410/16-18American Research GroupKerry iffy. This call seemed shaky to us yesterday, but critical mass is now gathering behind Kerry. ARG and Zogby are backing up the Albuquerque Journal poll, leaving Gallup as the sole survey leaning to Bush.(Read Slate’s dispatch from New Mexico.) 44.1 53.6 1.0 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O)  50 47 2 4 10/12-14 CNN/USA  42.5 53.9 1.7 4.2 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O)  43462310/1-4Albuquerque Journal 45491410/2-4Hart Research (D) OH
(20)4944N/A3.510/17-18FOX NewsKerry iffy. ABC’s numbers fit the October trend of conventional surveys. Fox’s do not. Both automated polls are trending slightly to Kerry, though the online poll isn’t. The pattern is clear enough that we’ll need double confirmation of the Fox numbers before reevaluating this state.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Ohio.) 47 49 N/A 3.8 10/16-17 Survey USA (A)  47 50 N/A 3.5 10/14-17 ABC News  47 47 N/A 4 10/12-18 Rasmussen (A)  46 48 N/A 3.6 10/11-17 Ohio Poll  49 47 N/A 4 10/7-13 Rasmussen (A)  51431310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4549N/A4.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 47481410/4-6American Research Group 4849N/A3.610/2-4Survey USA (A) 4847N/A49/25-10/2Rasmussen (A) PA
(21)46471410/6-12Rasmussen (A)Kerry likely. He leads barely but consistently in all nonpartisan October polls.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Pennsylvania.) 46451310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4749N/A2.710/9-11Quinnipiac 46481410/4-6American Research Group 4749N/A3.610/3-5 SurveyUSA (A) 4350N/A 4 10/1-4 WHYY/WCU 4349N/A49/30-10/4Keystone 4747N/A49/25-10/1Rasmussen (A) WI
(10)4450N/A210/16-19American Research GroupKerry iffy. Throw out this month’s Democratic and Republican surveys, which favor their respective candidates, and you’re left with Gallup as the only one of five nonpartisan pollsters to give Bush the lead. ARG has a tie; the rest have Kerry ahead. 47 47 N/A 2 10/16-19 American Research Group  47.5 51.3 0.2 3.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O)  47 48 N/A 4.5 10/14 Rasmussen (A)  45 48 N/A 5 10/4-13 Wisconsin Public Radio  49442310/9-11Strategic Vision (R)  434724.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 49462410/3-5CNN/USA 48.1 50.6 0.1 3.4 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O)  44481510/3-5Lake Snell Perry (D)

Possible Upsets
State	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin	Dates	Sponsor/Pollster	Slate’s Call
AZ (10)	49	44	N/A	5	10/7-11	NAU	Bush pretty safe. Kerry’s debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that’s probably his high tide. (Read Slate’s dispatch from Arizona.)
	55	41	N/A	4.1	10/5-7	Survey USA (A)
	48	38	N/A	4.1	10/2-4	Arizona Republic

CO
(9)474234.910/13-14Rocky Mountain NewsBush pretty safe. Latest poll indicates the ballot measure to split EVs will fail. Kerry’s debate surge brings him within 5 points, but that’s probably his high tide. 5244N/A4.110/5-7SurveyUSA (A) 5041N/A410/4-6Mason-Dixon 49491510/3-6CNN/USA MI
(17)46.942.71.2510/18-19Detriot NewsKerry safe. 40 48 1 3 10/12-14 Strategic Vision (R)  43482410/11-13Research 2000 4649N/A510/6-12Rasmussen (A) 4252N/A3.910/4-6SurveyUSA (A) MO
(11)5145N/A3.910/16-18SurveyUSA (A)Bush pretty safe. His lead in Survey USA recovers from 2 to 6, echoing September polls. His Zogby trend is up, too.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Missouri.) 50.7 47.6 1.1 3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 49 47 N/A 3.8 10/2-4 SurveyUSA (A) 49.8 47.6 1.3 3 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 5145N/A59/22-10/5Rasmussen (A) 5044N/A49/16-19American Research Group 4841149/14-16Mason-Dixon 4942N/A3.59/13-16Research 2000 NJ
(15)4351N/A 3.8 10/16-18SurveyUSA (A)Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie. 45 49 1 3.5 10/14-17 Quinnipiac 38 51 N/A N/A 10/14-17 Star-Ledger 4646 2 4.5 10/8-14 FDU Public Mind 41462310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4348N/A4.510/7-11FDU Public Mind 4453N/A59/26-10/10Rasmussen (A) 4147N/A4.110/1-6Star-Ledger 4149N/A4.510/1-6FDU Public Mind 464923.810/1-4Quinnipiac 4550N/A3.810/1-3Survey USA (A) OR
(7)4553 N/A 4 10/15-18 CNN/USA Kerry probably safe. He leads by 5 or more points in five of six October polls.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Oregon.) 44 50 N/A 4 10/9-13 Research 2000 484314.910/9-13Riley Research 44492410/10-12American Research Group 4453 N/A410/9-11SurveyUSA (A) VA
(13)5046N/A3.910/16-18SurveyUSA (A)Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in the Survey USA pollis plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls. 5050N/A59/14-27Rasmussen (A) 4943149/24-27Mason-Dixon 5342N/A3.79/21-23SurveyUSA (A) 4943N/A49/12-14American Research Group WA
(11)4552 N/A 4.1 10/16-18 SurveyUSA (A)Kerry safe. He has never trailed.(Read Slate’s dispatch from Washington.) 444923  10/4-6Strategic Vision (R) 4354 N/A 4 10/2-4 SurveyUSA (A) 4350N/A59/10-23Rasmussen (A) WV
(5)48.645.80.74.410/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O)Bush in danger. Two of three conventional September polls showed a tie. The Zogby online survey, which gave Bush a 6-point lead from Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, is down to a 3-point lead from Oct. 13 to 18. A Democratic survey puts the margin at 2. There hasn’t been a nonpartisan conventional poll here in October. The first one to come along could swing our evaluation.(Read Slate’s dispatch from West Virginia.) 47 45 2 4 10/12-14 Global Strategy Group (D) 50.1 44.0 0.7 4.4 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 5145N/A59/17-20Gallup 5044 N/A 4.5 9/14-16 Rasmussen (A) 4646249/14-16American Research Group 4544N/A49/13-19Mason-Dixon

Trial Heat								Trend
Bush	Kerry	Nader	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster		Bush	Kerry	Since
45	45	1	2.9	10/14-17	Likely	Reuters/Zogby		-1	+1	10/14-16
47	45	2	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS		-1	0	10/9-11
50	47	1	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP		0	+1	10/14-16
52	44	1	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA		+4	-5	10/9-10
47	50	1	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps		-1	+2	10/10-11
48	45	2	3.5	10/13-16	Likely	TIPP		0	0	10/12-15
48	46	N/A	4	10/14-15	Likely	Time		+2	+1	10/6-7
50	44	1	4	10/14-15	Likely	Newsweek		N/A	N/A	N/A
48	43	2	3.5	10/9-11	Likely	ICR		-3	-2	10/1-5
49	46	1	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground		-2	+2	9/27-30
46	50	2	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP		-6	+5	9/20-22
49	46	1	3	10/4-5	Likely	Marist		-1	+2	9/20-22
46	46	2	3.5	10/2-4	Likely	ARG		-1	-1	8/30-9/1
47	45	1	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox		+1	+3	9/21-22
49	44	2	4	10/1-3	Likely	Pew		+2	-2	9/11-14
45	47	2	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek		-4	+4	9/9-10
51	45	2	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times		N/A	N/A	N/A
48	40	2	3.5	9/22-26	Registered	Pew		+3	-2	9/17-21
48	42	5	4	9/21-23	Likely	Time		-4	+2	9/7-9
50	46	1	4	9/17-19	Likely	NBC/WSJ		N/A	N/A	8/23-25
47	48	2	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris		0	+1	8/10-15
46	46	3	3.5	9/7-12	Likely	IBD/TIPP		N/A	N/A

Bush Job Approval							Trend
Approve	Disapprove	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster		Approve	Disapprove	Since
51	47	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA		+4	-2	10/9-10
49	50	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps		0	+3	9/19-21
49	49	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time		-1	+3	10/7-9
43	48	3	10/9-11	Likely	CBS		-4	+5	10/1-3
52	45	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground		-1	+2	9/27-30
46	53	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP		-8	+7	9/20-22
49	48	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist		0	-1	9/20-22
53	43	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox		+3	-2	9/21-22
47	43	4	10/1-3	Likely	CBS/NYT		-1	-1	9/20-22
53	45	3	10/1-3	Likely	ABC/WP		+3	+1	9/23-26
49	52	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby		+2	-5	9/17-19
53	43	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground		0	-2	9/23
50	45	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox		+1	+1	9/7-8
47	48	3	9/17-19	Registered	NBC/WSJ		0	0	8/23-25
50	42	3	9/12-16	Registered	CBS/NYT		0	+1	9/6-8

Re-Elect							Trend
Yes	No	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster		Yes	No	Since
47	48	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek		-1	+2	9/30-10/2
46	49	2.9	10/8-10	Likely	Zogby		+1	-1	10/5-7
45	51	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time		-2	+2	9/21-23
50	47	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times		N/A	N/A	N/A
47	49	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time		-5	+4	9/7-9
45	51	4	9/9-13	Likely	Harris		N/A	N/A

Right Direction/Wrong Track							Trend
Right	Wrong	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster		Right	Wrong	Since
39	57	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS		-2	+7	10/1-3
44	51	3.1	10/14-16	Likely	Democracy Corps		+2	-2	10/3-5
40	55	4	10/14-15	Registered	Newsweek		N/A	N/A	N/A
40	53	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground		-1	+3	9/27-30
40	56	3	10/4-6	Likely	AP		-5	+4	9/20-22
41	53	3	10/4-5	Registered	Marist		+3	0	9/20-22
48	47	3.1	10/1-3	Likely	Zogby		+5	-3	9/17-19
41	50	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground		+2	-3	9/23
42	53	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times		N/A	N/A	N/A
43	51	3.5	9/21-23	Registered	Time		-3	+2	9/7-9

Favorable/Unfavorable Rating						Bush Trend		Kerry Trend
Bush	Kerry	Margin of Error	Dates	Voters Sampled	Sponsor/ Pollster	Fav	Unfav	Fav	Unfav	Since
43/45	39/44	4	10/14-17	Likely	NYT/CBS	-1	+1	-1	+3	10/1-3
53/42	46/43	3	10/14-17	Likely	WP	-1	+2	0	0	10/14-16
55/44	52/45	4	10/14-16	Likely	CNN/USA	+4	-2	0	+1	10/9-10
49/40	48/37	3	10/14-15	Registered	Time	-5	+2	+5	-5	9/7-9
53/45	51/44	3.1	10/3-7	Likely	Battleground	-3	+3	+3	-4	9/27-30
48/42	50/34	3	10/6-7	Likely	Time	-6	+4	+7	-8	9/7-9
52/43	46/44	3	10/3-4	Likely	Fox	0	0	-1	0	9/21-22
57/40	53/41	3.5	10/1-3	Registered	Pew	+7	-6	-1	+2	9/11-14
49/46	52/40	4	9/30-10/2	Registered	Newsweek	-3	+2	+4	-4	9/9-10
56/42	48/48	3.1	9/27-30	Likely	Battleground	+1	0	-2	+2	9/23
54/46	48/50	3	9/25-28	Likely	LA Times	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
50/48	51/46	3.5	9/20-22	Registered	Marist	-1	+1	-5	+8	7/30-8/2
52/43	47/44	3	9/21-22	Likely	Fox	+1	0	-1	0	9/7-8
55/44	51/44	3	9/13-15	Likely	Gallup	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
49/46	51/40	2.5	9/11-14	Registered	Pew	-6	+6	+1	-4	9/8-10