Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 22 2004 5:07 PM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

271 Electoral Votes
174 solid, 60 likely, 37 iffy

267 Electoral Votes
153 solid, 85 likely, 29 iffy

64_0410149_legend

Analysis Oct. 22, 10:30 a.m.: Mason-Dixon's polls of 13 battleground states show Bush winning several states by 5 to 10 points but Kerry winning no state by more than 1 point—not even Michigan, where a Republican survey had him 8 points up. Our examination of the party breakdowns suggests that the new polls overstate Bush's strength in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa. But in Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Oregon, the warnings to Kerry are real.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slateawards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

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Tightest States
StateBushKerryNaderMarginDatesSponsor/PollsterSlate's Call

 FL
(27)

484713.510/15-19QuinnipiacBush iffy. He leads narrowly in two of the three conventional polls and two of the three unconventional polls in the last two weeks. The two contrary surveys show Kerry ahead by just 1 point. The party breakdown in Mason-Dixon's poll, which has Bush up 3, matches the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in statewide voter registration. On balance, the numbers suggest that Bush is ahead. But the pattern still isn't as consistent for him here as it is for Kerry in Pennsylvania.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)

50.148.90.32.110/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O)
49 50 N/A 4 10/15-17 SurveyUSA (A)
48 45 N/A 4 10/14-16 Mason-Dixon
44452410/10-15Univ. of North Florida
49451310/12-14Strategic Vision (R)
49461410/8-14Rasmussen (A)
4848 1 4 10/4-10 Washington Post
49441310/4-6Strategic Vision
4844 3 4 10/4-5 Mason-Dixon
51 44 N/A 3.7 10/1-5 Quinnipiac
4749 N/A 4 10/2-5 American Research Group
49.1 49.5 0.5 2.2 9/30-5 Zogby/WSJ (O)
5146 N/A 3.8 10/1-3 SurveyUSA (A)
IA
(7)5145 1 3.8 10/18-20SurveyUSA (A)Bush likely. Mason-Dixon gives him a 6-point lead. That's 4 points bigger than any conventional poll has shown, and the party breakdown in this poll is 2 to 3 points to the right of both statewide registration and the 2000 VNS exit poll. Still, an adjustment for party leaves Bush ahead, as the earlier Trib poll suggests. No conventional October poll favors Kerry, and SurveyUSA, which had a dead heat two weeks ago, agrees that Bush has gained. We're taking this one out of the iffy column. 47.951.10.44.110/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O) 49 43 1 4 10/15-18Mason-Dixon 47472 4 10/10-12 American Research Group 49461310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 474514.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 4650N/A5.09/27-10/10Rasmussen (A) 4847N/A3.910/4-6SurveyUSA (A) 44.5 51.1 0.2 4.1 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) ME
(4)4551 N/A3.9 10/17-19 SurveyUSA (A)Kerry breathes easier. SurveyUSA has him up 6. That's a steady 7-point gain for him over the past month. It's an automated poll, but we see no reason not to trust such polls for trend data. Let's reevaluate. The evidence that Kerry's lead is below 4 is now thin and old. So it now looks like he'll take the second CD and all 4 EVs.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)

47 49 N/A 3.9 10/3-5 SurveyUSA (A) 4239459/23-27Strategic Mktg Svs. 4746N/A49/20-22SurveyUSA (A) 4245349/10-23Critical Insights 4448449/8-10American Research Group MN
(10)47452410/15-18Mason-DixonKerry likely. Mason-Dixon hasn't published its party breakdown here, but its breakdowns in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan were all more Republican than the 2004 exit polls in those states. We're dubious of the numbers for that reason and because Kerry has led in every previous conventional poll since mid-September, including one by a Republican firm a week ago. But it's not out of the question that a 2-point Kerry lead became a 2-point Bush lead in that time, so we'll keep an eye on it.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)

47 47 N/A 4.5 10/11-17Rasmussen (A) 45 47 1 310/12-14Strategic Vision (R) 434823.410/9-11Star-Tribune 434524.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 43501310/2-4Hart Research (D) NV
(5)5245N/A410/16-18SurveyUSA (A)Bush likely. He has led in every conventional poll.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)

52 42 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 50 46 N/A 4 10/1-3 SurveyUSA (A) 4844249/20-28BR&S/Las Vegas Sun 4745N/A59/23Rasmussen (A) 5243159/18-21Gallup NH
(4)47461410/16-19American Research GroupKerry iffy. We checked Mason-Dixon's party breakdown to see whether it matches the 2000 exit poll. It does. ARG has Bush up 1. Zogby has Kerry up 5, but that's online. Rasmussen has Kerry up 2, but that's automated. Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, but that's a week old. That leaves Suffolk as the only conventional poll to show a Kerry lead in the last week. The average of October polls still tilts to Kerry, but one more conventional survey on Bush's side will probably move this state to his column. 47 49 N/A 4.5 10/18 Rasmussen (A) 48 45 1 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 414614.910/14-17Suffolk Univ. 46.0 51.1 1.1 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 45 49 2 4 10/12-14 Research 2000 47471410/3-5American Research Group 43.9 50.5 1.7 4.1 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 42491410/3-4Franklin Pierce 504514.39/27-10/3UNH Granite Poll NM
(5)46481410/16-18American Research GroupKerry iffy. This is Mason-Dixon's biggest shocker, a 5-point lead for Bush. Is it real? The survey's party breakdown is to the right of statewide registration but to the left of the 2000 exit poll. Accordingly, we think it's valid confirmation of Gallup. That leaves the candidates 2-2 among conventional October polls. For now, we'll let Kerry's 9-point margin in the Zogby online survey break the tie. But the Albuquerque Journal poll is getting old. Kerry needs fresh confirmation of his lead, or this state will slip away.

(Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)

49 45 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 44.1 53.6 1.0 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 50 47 2 4 10/12-14 CNN/USA 42.5 53.9 1.7 4.2 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 43462310/1-4Albuquerque Journal 45491410/2-4Hart Research (D) OH
(20)474813.510/17-20CNN/USAKerry iffy. Gallup agrees Kerry is barely ahead here, and our review of Mason-Dixon's party breakdown shows it is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. Fox doesn't publish its party breakdown. Accordingly, we're growing skeptical of the evidence against the previous pattern of Kerry leading narrowly in conventional surveys.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)

49 44 N/A 3.5 10/17-18FOX News 46 45 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 47 49 N/A 3.8 10/16-17 Survey USA (A) 47 50 N/A 3.5 10/14-17 ABC News 47 47 N/A 4 10/12-18 Rasmussen (A) 46 48 N/A 3.6 10/11-17 Ohio Poll 49 47 N/A 4 10/7-13 Rasmussen (A) 51431310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4549N/A4.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 47481410/4-6American Research Group 4849N/A3.610/2-4Survey USA (A) 4847N/A49/25-10/2Rasmussen (A) PA
(21)4546N/A410/15-18Mason-DixonKerry likely. He leads barely but consistently in all nonpartisan October polls.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)

45 51 N/A 4 10/15-17 SurveyUSA (A) 46471 4 10/6-12 Rasmussen (A) 46451310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4749N/A2.710/9-11Quinnipiac 46481410/4-6American Research Group 4749N/A3.610/3-5 SurveyUSA (A) 4350N/A 4 10/1-4 WHYY/WCU 4349N/A49/30-10/4Keystone 4747N/A49/25-10/1Rasmussen (A) WI
(10)50443410/16-19CNN/USA/GallupBush iffy. Yesterday we shifted this state to Bush because among the three polls taken in the last week, one had a tie, the second had Bush up 1, and the third had Bush up 6. Today Mason-Dixon calls the race a tie. The survey's party breakdown is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, so we think it suggests that with real turnout, Kerry would win the state. But we don't move states based on such speculation. Kerry will have to show us fresh polls with him in the lead. 47 47 N/A 2 10/16-19 American Research Group 48 47 2 4 10/14-19 U of Minnesota 45 45 1 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 47.5 51.3 0.2 3.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 47 48 N/A 4.5 10/14 Rasmussen (A) 45 48 N/A 5 10/4-13 Wisconsin Public Radio 49442310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 434724.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 49462410/3-5CNN/USA/Gallup 48.1 50.6 0.1 3.4 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 44481510/3-5Lake Snell Perry (D)

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Possible Upsets
StateBushKerryNaderMarginDatesSponsor/PollsterSlate's Call
AZ
(10)
5443 N/A 4 10/17-19 Survey USA (A)Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)

47 40 N/A 4 10/18-19 Arizona Republic
4944 N/A 5 10/7-11 NAU
5541N/A4.110/5-7Survey USA (A)
4838N/A4.110/2-4Arizona Republic
CO
(9)5245N/A4.110/18-20SurveyUSA (A)

Bush pretty safe. Latest poll indicates the ballot measure to split EVs will fail. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)

50 45 N/A 4.5 10/18 Rasmussen (A) 51 45 1 4 10/14-17 CNN/USA/Gallup 47 42 3 4.9 10/13-14 Rocky Mountain News 5244N/A4.110/5-7Survey USA (A) 5041N/A410/4-6Mason-Dixon 49491510/3-6CNN/USA MI
(17)445113.910/18-20SurveyUSA (A)Kerry looks pretty safe. Mason-Dixon has him up 1 in a survey whose party breakdown is a full 8 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. SurveyUSA has him up 7. Both findings are consistent with previous October polls giving Kerry an average lead of 6.5. Even a Republican survey a week ago had Kerry up 8. We think the Detroit News poll is wrong. 46.942.71.2510/18-19Detriot News 46 47 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 40 48 1 3 10/12-14 Strategic Vision (R) 43482410/11-13Research 2000 4649N/A510/6-12Rasmussen (A) 4252N/A3.910/4-6Survey USA (A) MO
(11)5145N/A3.910/16-18Survey USA (A)Bush pretty safe. Mason-Dixon backs up SurveyUSA with a Bush lead of 5 to 6 points .

(Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)

49 44 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 50.7 47.6 1.1 3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 49 47 N/A 3.8 10/2-4 Survey USA (A) 49.8 47.6 1.3 3 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 5145N/A59/22-10/5Rasmussen (A) 5044N/A49/16-19American Research Group 4841149/14-16Mason-Dixon 4942N/A3.59/13-16Research 2000 NJ
(15)4351N/A 3.8 10/16-18Survey USA (A)Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie. 43 44 1 3 10/16-18 Strategic Vision (R) 45 49 1 3.510/14-17 Quinnipiac 38 51 N/A N/A 10/14-17 Star-Ledger 4646 2 4.5 10/8-14 FDU Public Mind 41462310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4348N/A4.510/7-11FDU Public Mind 4453N/A59/26-10/10Rasmussen (A) 4147N/A4.110/1-6Star-Ledger 4149N/A4.510/1-6FDU Public Mind 464923.810/1-4Quinnipiac 4550N/A3.810/1-3Survey USA (A) OR
(7)4553 N/A 4 10/15-18 CNN/USA

Kerry possibly at risk. We blew off the Riley survey because Kerry led by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. Even Gallup has him up 8. But now Mason-Dixon finds him leading by just 1 point in a survey whose party breakdown matches statewide registration. It's probably a blip, but this is no longer a locked-up state.

(Read Slate's dispatch from
Oregon.) 46 47 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 44 50 N/A 4 10/9-13 Research 2000 484314.910/9-13Riley Research 44492410/10-12American Research Group 4453 N/A410/9-11Survey USA (A) VA
(13)5046N/A3.910/16-18Survey USA (A)Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in SurveyUSA is plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls. 5050N/A59/14-27Rasmussen (A) 4943149/24-27Mason-Dixon 5342N/A3.79/21-23SurveyUSA (A) 4943N/A49/12-14American Research Group WA
(11)4452 N/A 510/6-19 Rasmussen (A)Kerry safe. He has never trailed.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)

4552  N/A  4.1  10/16-18  Survey USA (A) 444923  10/4-6Strategic Vision (R) 4354 N/A 4 10/2-4 Survey USA (A) 4350N/A59/10-23Rasmussen (A) WV
(5)48.645.80.74.410/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O)Bush pretty safe. Yesterday we put this state in the danger zone pending the first nonpartisan conventional poll of October. Now we've got that poll, and it shows Bush up by 5, contrary to Democratic and online surveys. He regains the presumption of safety.

(Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)

49  44N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 47 45 2 4 10/12-14 Global Strategy Group (D) 50.1 44.0 0.7 4.4 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 5145N/A59/17-20Gallup 5044 N/A 4.5 9/14-16 Rasmussen (A) 4646249/14-16American Research Group 4544N/A49/13-19Mason-Dixon

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
49 48 1 3 10/17-19 Likely Marist0+2 10/4-5
46 45 1 2.9 10/18-20 Likely Reuters/Zogby0 -1 10/17-19
47 45 2 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -1 0 10/9-11
50 47 1 3 10/14-17 Likely WP0 +1 10/14-16
52 44 1 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA+4 -5 10/9-10
4750 1 3.1 10/14-16 Likely Democracy Corps-1+2 10/10-11
48452 3.5 10/13-16 Likely TIPP00 10/12-15
4846 N/A 4 10/14-15 Likely Time+2 +1 10/6-7
50441410/14-15Likely NewsweekN/AN/A N/A
48 43 2 3.5 10/9-11 Likely ICR-3 -2 10/1-5
4946 1 3.110/3-7 Likely Battleground-2+2 9/27-30
46 50 2 3 10/4-6 Likely AP-6 +5 9/20-22
46 46 2 3.5 10/2-4 Likely ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1
47451 310/3-4 Likely Fox+1 +3 9/21-22
49 44 2 4 10/1-3 Likely Pew+2 -2 9/11-14
45 47 2 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4 9/9-10
51 45 2 3 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A
48 402 3.5 9/22-26 Registered Pew+3 -2 9/17-21
48 42 5 4 9/21-23 Likely Time-4 +2 9/7-9
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
5147 410/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 10/9-10
4950 3.1 10/14-16 Likely  Democracy Corps0+3  9/19-21
494910/14-15Registered Time-1+3  10/7-9
43 48 10/9-11 Likely  CBS-4 +5  10/1-3
5245 3.1 10/3-7Likely Battleground-1 +2  9/27-30
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
4748 10/14-15 Registered Newsweek-1 +2  9/30-10/2 
46 49 2.9 10/8-10 LikelyZogby +1 -1 10/5-7 
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time-2 +2  9/21-23
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
39 57 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS-2 +7  10/1-3  
4451 3.110/14-16Likely  Democracy Corps+2-2  10/3-5
405510/14-15 Registered  NewsweekN/AN/A N/A 
40533.1 10/3-7Likely  Battleground-1 +3  9/27-30
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
43/45 39/44 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS  -1 +1 -1 +3  10/1-3 
53/42 46/43 10/14-17 Likely  WP -1 +2 10/14-16 
55/44 52/45 10/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 +1  10/9-10
49/4048/3710/14-15Registered Time-5 +2 +5-5  9/7-9
53/4551/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely  Battleground-3 +3 +3 -4  9/27-30 
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10

Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right.

David Kenner is a former Slate intern.

Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.

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