|If the Election Were Held Today|
271 Electoral Votes
168 solid, 66 likely, 37 iffy
149 solid, 85 likely, 33 iffy
Update 5:20 p.m. ET: Hold on to your hats. No sooner did we demand a second tight survey in Hawaii than we got one. Both polls show Bush barely ahead with plenty of undecideds. Meanwhile, in Arkansas, Kerry has closed from a 9-point deficit to a tie. The only other conventional poll in that state showed Bush up by 3 after his convention. If Bush loses Florida, Hawaii won't matter. But if he keeps Florida and loses Wisconsin, New Mexico and Hawaii would give him the election.
Note: This analysis is based in part on surveys not yet posted in the tables.
How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slateawards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.
The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.