Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 26 2004 3:34 PM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

276 Electoral Votes
168 solid, 66 likely, 42 iffy

262 Electoral Votes
149 solid, 85 likely, 28 iffy

64_0410149_legend

Analysis Oct. 25, 12:45 p.m. ET: New Mexico moves to Bush, bumping him up to 276. Now he has several winning combinations, none of which require Ohio. He can lose Iowa and still take the election to the House on a tie. He's more likely to lose Wisconsin than Iowa, but in that case, New Mexico plus New Hampshire or (can you believe this?) Hawaii gets him to 270. What Bush can't afford is a Colorado-New Mexico swap. Given the current map, we still think Wisconsin will decide the election. But there are many more variables in play today than a week ago.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slateawards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.

The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

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Tightest States
StateBushKerryNaderMarginDatesSponsor/PollsterSlate's Call

 FL
(27)

4946N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/Zogby Bush iffy. The Reuters/Zogby conventional poll confirms a Bush lead after two other surveys showed a tie or a slight edge to Kerry. The unconventional polls are split, with Bush up 1 in the Zogby online survey and Kerry up 1 in SurveyUSA. The party breakdown in Mason-Dixon's poll, which has Bush up 3, matches the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in statewide voter registration.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)

46 46 3.510/19-21Miami Herald
47483.53.510/18-21Research 2000
484713.510/15-19Quinnipiac
50.148.90.32.110/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O)
49 50 N/A 4 10/15-17 SurveyUSA (A)
48 45 N/A 4 10/14-16 Mason-Dixon
44452410/10-15U of North Florida
49451310/12-14Strategic Vision (R)
49461410/8-14Rasmussen (A)
4848 1 4 10/4-10 Washington Post
4844 3 4 10/4-5 Mason-Dixon
51 44 N/A 3.7 10/1-5 Quinnipiac
4749 N/A 4 10/2-5 ARG
49.1 49.5 0.5 2.2 9/30-5 Zogby/WSJ (O)
5146 N/A 3.8 10/1-3 SurveyUSA (A)
IA
(7)4745N/A 4.1 10/21-24Reuters/Zogby

Bush likely. Reuters/Zogby backs up the general pattern of a 2-point Bush lead, contradicting Zogby's onlie poll and the only other outlier. We think Bush's 6-point lead in Mason-Dixon is exaggerated, since the poll's party breakdown is 2 to 3 points to the right of both statewide registration and the 2000 VNS exit poll. But the balance of evidence clearly suggests Bush is ahead.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Iowa.)

514513.8 10/18-20 SurveyUSA (A)  4546 1410/14-19Central Surveys 47.951.10.44.110/13-18Zogby/WSJ (O) 49 43 1 4 10/15-18Mason-Dixon 47472 4 10/10-12 American Research Group 49461310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 474514.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 4650N/A5.09/27-10/10Rasmussen (A) 4847N/A3.910/4-6SurveyUSA (A) 44.5 51.1 0.2 4.1 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) ME
(4)39501510/21-22Reuters/Zogby Kerry likely. 50-39 is clearly enough to nail down the more conservative second CD and give him all 4 electoral votes.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)

4551N/A3.9 10/17-19 SurveyUSA (A) 47 49 N/A 3.9 10/3-5 SurveyUSA (A) 3942459/23-27Strategic Mktg Svs. 4746N/A49/20-22SurveyUSA (A) 4245349/10-23Critical Insights 4448449/8-10ARG MN
(10)4546N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/ZogbyKerry likely. It's close, but he has led in nearly every conventional poll since mid-September, including one by a Republican firm a week ago. The sole exception is Mason-Dixon, which hasn't published its party breakdown here but used breakdowns in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan that were all more Republican than the 2004 exit polls in those states.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)

4846 N/A 4.5 10/17-23 Rasmussen (A)  47452410/15-18Mason-Dixon 47 47 N/A 4.5 10/11-17Rasmussen (A) 45 47 1 310/12-14Strategic Vision (R) 434823.410/9-11Star-Tribune 434524.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 43501310/2-4Hart Research (D) NV
(5)4844N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/ZogbyBush likely Just when we were wondering whether to take this state off the battlegrounds table, along comes Research 2000 with the first conventional October survey suggesting a close race. But Zogby's conventional poll backs up Mason-Dixon, and Bush is the one gaining in SurveyUSA and the Zogby online poll. The average of all surveys leans clearly to Bush.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)

49 47 N/A 4.110/19-21Research 2000  4541 4.1 10/16-19Las Vegas Sun 5245 N/A410/16-18SurveyUSA (A) 52 42 N/A 4 10/15-18Mason-Dixon 50 46 N/A 4 10/1-3 SurveyUSA (A) 4844249/20-28BR&S/Las Vegas Sun 4745N/A59/23Rasmussen (A) 5243159/18-21Gallup NH
(4)47461410/16-19ARGKerry iffy. We checked Mason-Dixon's party breakdown to see whether it matches the 2000 exit poll. It does. ARG has Bush up 1. Zogby has Kerry up 5, but that's online. Rasmussen has Kerry up 2, but that's automated. Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, but that's a week old. That leaves Suffolk as the only conventional poll to show a Kerry lead in the last week. The average of October polls still tilts to Kerry, but one more conventional survey on Bush's side will probably move this state to his column. 47 49 N/A 4.5 10/18 Rasmussen (A) 48 45 1 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 414614.910/14-17Suffolk Univ. 46.0 51.1 1.1 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 45 49 2 4 10/12-14 Research 2000 47471410/3-5ARG 43.9 50.5 1.7 4.1 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 42491410/3-4Franklin Pierce 504514.39/27-10/3UNH Granite Poll NM
(5)4944N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/Zogby Bush iffy. On Friday we said Kerry needed fresh confirmation of his lead, or this state would slip away from him. What we got instead is another poll showing Bush ahead. Gallup plus Mason-Dixon plus Reuters/Zogby is better evidence than ARG plus an online survey plus the three-week-old Alburquerque Journal poll. We suspect Mason-Dixon is on the money here, because its party breakdown is to the right of statewide registration but to the left of the 2000 exit poll.

(Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)

46481410/16-18ARG 49 45 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 44.1 53.6 1.0 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 50 47 2 4 10/12-14 CNN/USA/Gallup 42.5 53.9 1.7 4.2 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 43462310/1-4Albuquerque Journal 45491410/2-4Hart Research (D) OH
(20)4742N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/ZogbyKerry iffy. Every time we think this state is turning into another Pennsylvania with a small but steady lead for Kerry, along comes a Fox or a Mason-Dixon or a Zogby to confound that trend. Mason-Dixon's party breakdown was 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, and Fox is Fox, but the evidence for Kerry is unarguably weaker today than a week ago. He'd better watch out.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)

46 50 N/A 5.3 10/17-21 Scripps  474813.510/17-20CNN/USA/Gallup 49 44 N/A3.510/17-18FOX News 46 45 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 47 49 N/A 3.8 10/16-17 Survey USA (A) 47 50 N/A 3.5 10/14-17 ABC News 47 47 N/A 4 10/12-18 Rasmussen (A) 46 48 N/A 3.6 10/11-17 Ohio Poll 49 47 N/A 4 10/7-13 Rasmussen (A) 51431310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4549N/A4.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 47481410/4-6ARG 4849N/A3.610/2-4Survey USA (A) PA
(21)4547N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/ZogbyKerry likely. Reuters/Zogby is the 11th consecutive nonpartisan poll showing Kerry ahead. If Republican registration and GOTV were enough to move this state, it would have shown up in somebody's likely-voter methodology by now. Bush will have to change people's minds to win here. After a month of stagnation despite all the ads, debates, and visits, we don't see it happening.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)

4649N/A410/17-23Rasmussen (A) 4648N/A3.510/17-22Muhlenberg  4651 N/A 3.4 10/16-20 Quinnipiac  4546N/A410/15-18Mason-Dixon 45 51 N/A 4 10/15-17 SurveyUSA (A) 46471 4 10/6-12 Rasmussen (A) 46451310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4749N/A2.710/9-11Quinnipiac 46481410/4-6ARG 4749N/A3.610/3-5 SurveyUSA (A) 4350N/A 4 10/1-4 WHYY/WCU 4349N/A49/30-10/4Keystone 4747N/A49/25-10/1Rasmussen (A) WI
(10)4845N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/Zogby Bush iffy. Three leads and two ties in polls taken since Oct. 13 is good evidence of a small Bush lead. Kerry's consolation is that Mason-Dixon's party breakdown is 5 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll, leaving the possibility that with traditional turnout, Kerry would win the state. 50443410/16-19CNN/USA/Gallup 47 47 N/A 2 10/16-19 ARG 48 47 2 4 10/14-19 U of Minnesota 45 45 1 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 47.5 51.3 0.2 3.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 47 48 N/A 4.5 10/14 Rasmussen (A) 45 48 N/A 5 10/4-13 Wisconsin Public Radio 49442310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 434724.410/8-11Chicago Tribune 49462410/3-5CNN/USA/Gallup 48.1 50.6 0.1 3.4 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 44481510/3-5Lake Snell Perry (D)

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Possible Upsets
StateBushKerryNaderMarginDatesSponsor/PollsterSlate's Call
AZ
(10)
5443 N/A 4 10/17-19 Survey USA (A)Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)

47 40 N/A 4 10/18-19 Arizona Republic
4944 N/A 5 10/7-11 NAU
5541N/A4.110/5-7Survey USA (A)
4838N/A4.110/2-4Arizona Republic
AR
(6)4848 4.5 10/18-20Arkansas News BureauBush at risk. Three weeks ago, the Arkansas News Bureau poll showed him leading by 9 points. Now the same poll shows a tie. The only other conventional surveys since April are ARG, which had Bush ahead by 3 shortly after his convention, and Zogby's poll for the Democrat-Gazette, which had Bush up by 1 two weeks ago. Zogby's more recent online survey has Bush by 1 as well. SurveyUSA has Bush up by 5, but that's a 4-point drop for the president. The more closely you examine the data, the shakier this state looks. 49.7 48.4 0.2 4.3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 46 4.5 10/10-11Zogby/Arkansas Democrat-Gazette CO
(9)4549N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/Zogby Bush probably safe. This is the only state in which Reuters/Zogby brought Kerry good news. Maybe he wasn't nuts to fly there over the weekend. But we doubt the six previous conventional surveys showing comfortable leads for Bush are all wrong or outdated.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)

5245N/A 4.110/18-20SurveyUSA (A) 50 45 N/A 4.5 10/18 Rasmussen (A) 51 45 1 4 10/14-17 CNN/USA/Gallup 47 42 3 4.9 10/13-14 Rocky Mountain News 5244N/A4.110/5-7Survey USA (A) 5041N/A410/4-6Mason-Dixon 49491510/3-6CNN/USA HI
(4)4645N/A410/17-20SMS/Star-BulletinAloha-whoa. Suddenly a state on nobody's radar issues back-to-back surveys showing Bush ahead by a nose. Gore romped here, but absent fresh polling on the other side, we take the new numbers seriously. 43.342.6 N/A410/13-18Honolulu Advertiser 415149/7-11ARG MI
(17)4252N/A4.110/21-24Reuters/Zogby This looks to us like a replay of New Jersey, a state that briefly seemed close but isn't. Two new surveys echo the previous comfortable average lead for Kerry, confirming our analysis that the Mason-Dixon survey showing Kerry up 1 was based on a party breakdown 8 points to the right of the 2000 exit poll. Even a Republican survey a week ago had Kerry up 8. We think the Detroit News poll is wrong. 46 51 N/A 10/17-23Rasmussen (A) 43491410/18-21EPIC/MRA 445113.910/18-20SurveyUSA (A) 46.942.71.2510/18-19Detroit News 46 47 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 40 48 1 3 10/12-14 Strategic Vision (R) 43482410/11-13Research 2000 4649N/A510/6-12Rasmussen (A) 4252N/A3.910/4-6Survey USA (A) MO
(11)5045N/A510/17-20Rasmussen (A)Bush pretty safe. Mason-Dixon backs up SurveyUSA with a Bush lead of 5 to 6 points .

(Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)

5145N/A3.910/16-18SurveyUSA (A) 49 44 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 50.7 47.6 1.1 3 10/13-18 Zogby/WSJ (O) 49 47 N/A 3.8 10/2-4 SurveyUSA (A) 49.8 47.6 1.3 3 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 5145N/A59/22-10/5Rasmussen (A) 5044N/A49/16-19ARG 4841149/14-16Mason-Dixon 4942N/A3.59/13-16Research 2000 NJ
(15)4351N/A 3.8 10/16-18SurveyUSA (A)Kerry pulling away after his 5-point lead in one poll collapsed to a tie. 43 44 1 3 10/16-18 Strategic Vision (R) 45 49 1 3.510/14-17 Quinnipiac 38 51 N/A N/A 10/14-17 Star-Ledger 4646 2 4.5 10/8-14 FDU Public Mind 41462310/9-11Strategic Vision (R) 4348N/A4.510/7-11FDU Public Mind 4453N/A59/26-10/10Rasmussen (A) 4147N/A4.110/1-6Star-Ledger 464923.810/1-4Quinnipiac 4550N/A3.810/1-3SurveyUSA (A) OR
(7)4351N/A 4.510/8-21Rasmussen (A)

Kerry possibly at risk. We blew off the Riley survey because Kerry led by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. Even Gallup had him up 8. But then Mason-Dixon found him leading by just 1 point in a survey whose party breakdown matched statewide registration. Rasmussen agrees with conventional surveys showing Kerry well ahead, but we're going to keep an eye on this one.

(Read Slate's dispatch from
Oregon.) 4545N/A4 10/15-18 CNN/USA/Gallup 46 47 N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 44 50 N/A 4 10/9-13 Research 2000 484314.910/9-13Riley Research 44492410/10-12ARG 4453 N/A410/9-11SurveyUSA (A) VA
(13)5046N/A3.910/16-18SurveyUSA (A)Bush too close for comfort. His 4-point lead in SurveyUSA is plausible, given the 6-point spread in both September polls. 5050N/A59/14-27Rasmussen (A) 4943149/24-27Mason-Dixon 5342N/A3.79/21-23SurveyUSA (A) 4943N/A49/12-14ARG WA
(11)4452 N/A 510/6-19 Rasmussen (A)Kerry safe. He has never trailed.

(Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)

4552  N/A  4.1  10/16-18  Survey USA (A) 444923  10/4-6Strategic Vision (R) 4354 N/A 4 10/2-4 Survey USA (A) 4350N/A59/10-23Rasmussen (A) WV
(5)48.645.80.74.410/13-18Zogby (O)Bush pretty safe. Yesterday we put this state in the danger zone pending the first nonpartisan conventional poll of October. Now we've got that poll, and it shows Bush up by 5, contrary to Democratic and online surveys. He regains the presumption of safety.

(Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)

49  44N/A 4 10/15-18 Mason-Dixon 47 45 2 4 10/12-14 Global Strategy Group (D) 50.1 44.0 0.7 4.4 9/30-10/5 Zogby/WSJ (O) 5145N/A59/17-20Gallup 5044 N/A 4.5 9/14-16 Rasmussen (A) 4646249/14-16ARG 4544N/A49/13-19Mason-Dixon

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
4943 3.510/21-24 Likely  TIPP+1-1  10/20-23
4846 110/21-22 Likely  Newsweek-2 +2  10/14-15
4749 3.1 10/20-21 Likely  Democracy Corps-1  10/14-16
5146 10/19-21 Likely  Time+3  10/14-15 
464910/18-20Likely AP-1  10/4-6
49 48 1 3 10/17-19 Likely Marist0+2 10/4-5
46 45 1 2.9 10/18-20 Likely Reuters/Zogby0 -1 10/17-19
47 45 2 4 10/14-17 Likely NYT/CBS -1 0 10/9-11
50 47 1 3 10/14-17 Likely WP0 +1 10/14-16
52 44 1 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA+4 -5 10/9-10
48 43 2 3.5 10/9-11 Likely ICR-3 -2 10/1-5
4946 1 3.110/3-7 Likely Battleground-2+2 9/27-30
46 46 2 3.5 10/2-4 Likely ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1
47451 310/3-4 Likely Fox+1 +3 9/21-22
49 44 2 4 10/1-3 Likely Pew+2 -2 9/11-14
45 47 2 4 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4 9/9-10
51 45 2 3 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A
48 402 3.5 9/22-26 Registered Pew+3 -2 9/17-21
48 42 5 4 9/21-23 Likely Time-4 +2 9/7-9
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
4850 3.1 10/21-22Likely  Democracy Corps+1  10/14-16
5147 410/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 10/9-10
494910/14-15Registered Time-1+3  10/7-9
43 48 10/9-11 Likely  CBS-4 +5  10/1-3
5245 3.1 10/3-7Likely Battleground-1 +2  9/27-30
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
4748 10/21-22 Likely  Newsweek 10/14-15
46 49 2.9 10/8-10 LikelyZogby +1 -1 10/5-7 
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time-2 +2  9/21-23
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
42533.1 10/21-22 Likely  Democracy Corps-2 +2  10/14-16 
4056 10/21-22Likely  Newsweek 10/14-15
39 57 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS-2 +7  10/1-3  
40533.1 10/3-7Likely  Battleground-1 +3  9/27-30
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
43/45 39/44 10/14-17 Likely  NYT/CBS  -1 +1 -1 +3  10/1-3 
53/42 46/43 10/14-17 Likely  WP -1 +2 10/14-16 
55/44 52/45 10/14-16Likely CNN/USA+4-2 +1  10/9-10
49/4048/3710/14-15Registered Time-5 +2 +5-5  9/7-9
53/4551/44 3.1 10/3-7 Likely  Battleground-3 +3 +3 -4  9/27-30 
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10

Will Saletan writes about politics, science, technology, and other stuff for Slate. He’s the author of Bearing Right. Follow him on Twitter.

David Kenner is a former Slate intern.

Louisa Thomas is on the editorial staff of The New Yorker.