|If the Election Were Held Today|
276 Electoral Votes
168 solid, 66 likely, 42 iffy
149 solid, 85 likely, 28 iffy
Analysis Oct. 25, 12:45 p.m. ET: New Mexico moves to Bush, bumping him up to 276. Now he has several winning combinations, none of which require Ohio. He can lose Iowa and still take the election to the House on a tie. He's more likely to lose Wisconsin than Iowa, but in that case, New Mexico plus New Hampshire or (can you believe this?) Hawaii gets him to 270. What Bush can't afford is a Colorado-New Mexico swap. Given the current map, we still think Wisconsin will decide the election. But there are many more variables in play today than a week ago.
How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. The first table shows surveys in the most closely contested states. The second table shows surveys in states that are expected to go to one candidate but might be picked off by the other. In the left column, each state and its electoral votes are marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading in that state (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and with what degree of certainty. Slateawards electoral votes based on our poll analysis, which appears in the right-hand column. We color a state gray if it's likely to split its electoral votes. New polls are highlighted in yellow. (A) means a poll was automated. (O) means it was online. (D) means the polling firm is Democratic; (R) means the firm is Republican.
The other tables below track national surveys. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.
|49||46||N/A||4.1||10/21-24||Reuters/Zogby||Bush iffy. The Reuters/Zogby conventional poll confirms a Bush lead after two other surveys showed a tie or a slight edge to Kerry. The unconventional polls are split, with Bush up 1 in the Zogby online survey and Kerry up 1 in SurveyUSA. The party breakdown in Mason-Dixon's poll, which has Bush up 3, matches the ratio of Democrats to Republicans in statewide voter registration.|
(Read Slate's dispatch from Florida.)
|44||45||2||4||10/10-15||U of North Florida|
|49||45||1||3||10/12-14||Strategic Vision (R)|
Bush likely. Reuters/Zogby backs up the general pattern of a 2-point Bush lead, contradicting Zogby's onlie poll and the only other outlier. We think Bush's 6-point lead in Mason-Dixon is exaggerated, since the poll's party breakdown is 2 to 3 points to the right of both statewide registration and the 2000 VNS exit poll. But the balance of evidence clearly suggests Bush is ahead.
(Read Slate's dispatch from Iowa.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Maine.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Minnesota.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Nevada.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from New Mexico.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Ohio.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Pennsylvania.)
|54||43||N/A||4||10/17-19||Survey USA (A)||Bush pretty safe. Kerry's debate surge brought him within 5 points, but that's probably his high tide. |
(Read Slate's dispatch from Arizona.)
|55||41||N/A||4.1||10/5-7||Survey USA (A)|
(Read Slate's dispatch from Colorado.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Missouri.)
Kerry possibly at risk. We blew off the Riley survey because Kerry led by 5 or more points in five of six October polls. Even Gallup had him up 8. But then Mason-Dixon found him leading by just 1 point in a survey whose party breakdown matched statewide registration. Rasmussen agrees with conventional surveys showing Kerry well ahead, but we're going to keep an eye on this one.(Read Slate's dispatch from Oregon.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from Washington.)
(Read Slate's dispatch from West Virginia.)
|46||46||3||3.5||9/7-12||Likely||IBD/TIPP||N/A||N/A|Bush Job Approval Trend Approve Disapprove Margin
Dates Voters Sampled Sponsor/
Approve Disapprove Since 48 50 3.1 10/21-22 Likely Democracy Corps +1 0 10/14-16 51 47 4 10/14-16 Likely CNN/USA +4 -2 10/9-10 49 49 3 10/14-15 Registered Time -1 +3 10/7-9 43 48 3 10/9-11 Likely CBS -4 +5 10/1-3 52 45 3.1 10/3-7 Likely Battleground -1 +2 9/27-30 46 53 3 10/4-6 Likely AP -8 +7 9/20-22 49 48 3 10/4-5 Registered Marist 0 -1 9/20-22 53 43 3 10/3-4 Likely Fox +3 -2 9/21-22 47 43 4 10/1-3 Likely CBS/NYT -1 -1 9/20-22 53 45 3 10/1-3 Likely ABC/WP +3 +1 9/23-26 49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely Zogby +2 -5 9/17-19 53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely Battleground 0 -2 9/23 50 45 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox +1 +1 9/7-8 47 48 3 9/17-19 Registered NBC/WSJ 0 0 8/23-25 50 42 3 9/12-16 Registered CBS/NYT 0 +1 9/6-8
|Right Direction/Wrong Track||Trend|
|Favorable/Unfavorable Rating||Bush Trend||Kerry Trend|