Election scorecard.

Where the elections stand today.
Oct. 12 2004 10:15 AM

Election Scorecard

Where the presidential race stands today.

79_happybush
86_sadkerry

If the Election Were Held Today
WinnerLoser

278 Electoral Votes
178 solid, 100 close

260 Electoral Votes
178 solid, 82 close

1_123125_2106526_electoralkey

Analysis Oct. 12: Minnesota shifts to Kerry; New Mexico shifts to Bush. Two of three national polls begun Oct. 8 or later show Kerry leading within the margin, but the average still tilts toward Bush. Bush's job approval is 50 or below in the four polls begun Oct. 4 or later. In the
two post-debate surveys that asked whether he deserves re-election, the percentage saying no is 50 or above. Wrong track is above 50 and ahead of right direction by double digits in nearly all October polls.

How to read the tables: The following tables track the latest polls. In the Trial Heat, respondents were asked for whom they would vote. On Job Approval, they were asked whether they approve or disapprove of Bush's performance. On Re-Elect, they were asked whether Bush deserves to be re-elected or not. On Right Direction, they were asked whether things are going in the right direction or are on the wrong track. On Favorable Rating, they were asked whether they have a favorable or unfavorable impression of each candidate.

The sixth table shows the latest state polls and tallies the electoral votes for each candidate if those polls hold true on Nov. 2. Each poll has a margin of error based on its sample size. Pollsters consider a lead significant only if it is more than double the margin of error. If a candidate leads by at least twice the margin, we put that state's electoral votes in his "solid" column. Otherwise, we put the votes in his "close" column.

In the table of state polls, each state is marked dark red, light red, light blue, or dark blue, depending on which candidate is leading (red for Bush, blue for Kerry) and by how much. When a state poll is tied, we leave the electoral votes with the candidate who led in that state's previous poll (since the average of the two polls leans that way), but we indicate the tie by shading thestate gray on the map and in the table. New polls are marked in yellow. If a poll moves a state's electoral votes into a new column, a red or blue arrow shows the direction in which that state has moved, as follows:

1_123125_2106526_chartexample

Trial Heat Trend
BushKerryNaderMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
BushKerrySince
44 47 2.9 10/8-10 Likely  Reuters/Zogby-1 +1  10/7-9
48 49 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-1 10/1-3
51 45 10/8-10 Likely  ABC/WP -1 10/7-9 
46 45410/6-7 Likely  Time-1 +4  9/21-23 
46 50 10/4-6 Likely  AP-6 +5 9/20-22 
49 46 10/4-5 Likely  Marist-1 +2  9/20-22  
51 45 3.3 10/1-5 Likely  ICR+3  9/24-28
48 49 3.1 10/3-5 Likely  Democracy Corps-1 +3  9/26-28
46 46 3.5 10/2-4 Likely  ARG-1 -1 8/30-9/1 
4745310/3-4 Likely  Fox+1 +3  9/21-22
47 47 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 +6  9/20-22
49 44 10/1-3 Likely  Pew+2 -2  9/11-14
45 47 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-4 +4  9/9-10
51 44 13.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  +1 -1  9/22-23
51 45 9/25-28 Likely LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
4545249/22-27Likely IBD/TIPP 0+3 9/14-18
48 403.5 9/22-26 Registered  Pew+3 -2  9/17-21 
48 42 9/21-23 Likely  Time-4 +2  9/7-9 
5046149/17-19Likely NBC/WSJN/AN/A 8/23-25
47 48 2 4 9/9-13 Likely Harris0 +1 8/10-15
464633.59/7-12Likely IBD/TIPPN/AN/A 
514613.59/7-9Likely APN/AN/A   

Bush Job Approval Trend
ApproveDisapproveMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
ApproveDisapproveSince
47 49 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-3 +1 10/1-3
5046 10/7-9 Likely  Time-3+3  9/21-23
46 53 10/4-6 Likely  AP -8  +7 9/20-22
49 48 10/4-5 Registered  Marist-1  9/20-22
5343 310/3-4Likely Fox+3 -2  9/21-22
47 43 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1 -1  9/20-22
53 45 10/1-3 Likely  ABC/WP+3 +1  9/23-26
49 52 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+2 -5  9/17-19
53 43 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground  0-2  9/23  
50 45 9/21-22 Likely  Fox+1 +1  9/7-8
49473.19/19-21Likely Democracy Corps-1-1 9/12-14
474839/17-19Registered NBC/WSJ008/23-25
53453.19/12-15Likely Battleground+2-1 8/15-17
5042 39/12-16Registered  CBS/NYT+1 9/6-8 

Re-Elect Trend
YesNo Margin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
Yes No Since
45 51 10/6-7 Likely  Time  -2 +2  9/21-23
4450 2.9 10/4-6 Likely Zogby -2 +1  10/1-3
48 46 9/30-10/2 Registered  Newsweek-2  9/9-10
50 47 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/AN/A N/A 
47 49 3.5 9/21-23 Registered Time  -5 +4  9/7-9 
455149/9-13Likely HarrisN/AN/A 

Right Direction/Wrong Track Trend
RightWrongMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
RightWrongSince
40 56 10/4-6 Likely   AP-5 +4 9/20-22 
41 53 10/4-5 Registered  Marist+3  9/20-22
42 53 3.1 10/3-5 Likely  Democracy Corps+2  9/26-28
40 51 10/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-1-3 9/20-22
48 47 3.1 10/1-3 Likely  Zogby+5 -3  9/17-19
41 50 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+2 -3  9/23
42 53 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A 
43 51 3.5 9/21-23 Registered  Time-3 +2  9/7-9
4153 3.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+1-1 8/15-17
464939/7-9Registered Time+1-1 8/31-Sept. 2
445239/6-8Registered CBS+5-3 7/30-Aug. 1

Favorable/Unfavorable RatingBush TrendKerry Trend 
BushKerryMargin
of Error
DatesVoters SampledSponsor/
Pollster
FavUnfavFavUnfavSince
51/46 52/44 10/9-10 Likely  CNN/USA-2 +1 +1 10/1-3 
53/43 47/46 10/8-10 Likely  ABC/WP+1 +1 +4  10/2-4
48/4250/34 10/6-7 Likely  Time-6+4 +7 -8  9/7-9
52/4346/44 10/3-4 Likely  Fox00-1  9/21-22
44/44 40/41 310/1-3 Likely  CBS/NYT-2 +6 +8 -3  9/20-22
57/40 53/41 3.5 10/1-3 Registered  Pew+7 -6 -1 +2  9/11-14
49/4652/40 9/30-10/2 Registered Newsweek-3 +2+4 -4  9/9-10
56/42 48/48 3.1 9/27-30 Likely  Battleground+1-2 +2  9/23
54/46 48/50 9/25-28 Likely  LA TimesN/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 
50/4851/46 3.5 9/20-22 Registered  Marist-1 +1 -5 +8  7/30-8/2 
52/43 47/44 3 9/21-22 Likely Fox+1 0 -1 0 9/7-8
55/44 51/44 3 9/13-15 Likely GallupN/A N/A N/A N/A  
54/4449/473.1 9/12-15Likely Battleground+3-3-5+5 8/15-17
49/46 51/40 2.5 9/11-14 Registered Pew-6 +6 +1 -4 9/8-10
54/3843/4239/7-9Registered Time+9-7-10+13 8/3-5
47/3932/4139/6-8Registered CBS+4-5-6+7 7/30-8/1

 Electoral Vote
StateBushKerryNaderMarginSampleDatesSponsor/
Pollster
Bush
Solid
Bush
Close
Kerry
Close
Kerry
Solid
AL

62

34N/A4Likely10/1-3 Survey USA9   
AK57305 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   
AZ5541N/A4.1Likely10/5-7 Survey USA 10   

AR

52

43

1

4.5

Likely

10/4-6

Opinion Research

    
CA4049N/A4.3Likely9/30-10/3 Field     55
CO5041N/A 4Likely10/4-6 Mason-Dixon9   
CT395414Likely9/12-14 American Research Group     7
DE384523.9Likely9/22-25 WHYY-TV    
DC11 78 6 4 Likely 9/11-13 American Research Group     3
FL4844N/A4Registered10/4-5 Mason-Dixon  27    
GA5839N/A4.1Likely10/5-7 Survey USA15   
HI415144Likely9/7-11 American Research Group   
ID59 30 3 4 Likely 9/8-10 American Research Group4   
IL3955N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA     21
IN5839N/A4.1Likely10/3-5 Survey USA 11   
IA4748N/A 3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA  7  
KS573524 Likely9/15-18 American Research Group6   
KY573833.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA8   
LA504214Likely9/17-21 American Research Group9   
ME4749N/A3.9Likely10/3-5 Survey USA  4  
MD415624.1Likely10/5-7 Survey USA    10
MA36513.5Registered9/25-10/5 Merrimack    12
MI4252N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA    17
MN4646N/A4.5Likely9/18-24 Rasmussen 10  
MS514214Likely9/14-17 American Research Group6   
MO4947N/A3.8Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 11   
MT5333N/A4Registered5/24-26 Mason-Dixon3   
NE613024Likely9/9-12 American Research Group5   
NV5046N/A4Likely10/1-3 Survey USA 5   
NH474714Likely10/3-5 American Research Group   4     
NJ394724.5Likely10/1-6 Farleigh Dickerson U    15  
NM504724Likely10/3-6 CNN/USA     
NY405214Likely9/14-16 American Research Group    31
NC5245N/A4Likely10/2-4 Survey USA 15  
ND62 33 1 4 Likely 9/9-12 American Research Group3   
OH474814Likely10/4-6 American Research Group    20   
OK6333N/A3.9Likely10/4-6 Survey USA7    
OR4547N/A4Registered9/24-27 KATU-TV     7  
PA464814Likely10/4-6 American Research Group    21  
RI305844Likely9/11-13 American Research Group    4
SC5442N/A4Registered9/7-9 Public Opinion Strategies8   
SD5839N/A4.4Registered8/24-26 Public Opinion Strategies3   
TN5839N/A 4 Likely 10/3-5  Survey USA11      
TX5734N/A3Registered8/9-26 Scripps Howard34   
UT642744Likely9/10-13 American Research Group5   
VT405044Likely9/9-12 American Research Group    3
VA4943N/A 4 Likely 9/12-14 American Research Group  13    
WA4354N/A4Likely10/2-4 Survey USA   11 
WV5145N/A5Likely9/17-20 Gallup 5     
WI494624Likely10/3-5 CNN/USA 10   
WY65 29 2 4Likely9/9-11 American Research Group3   

10_electoralvotemap

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